Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo

Interesting position you find yourself in. Im not at SWA or UAL. I'm a DAL WB guy. Been in the industry for decades. Here's a perspective. SWA is a stagnant SL. Not many retirements going on there. It's a fairly "junior" group at SWA. UAL, they are clipping along on average of ~400 a year if not more - proabably for the next 10 years. Hiring. SWA is stagnating there as well. The single type and then the MAX disaster has impacted that. That means fewer coming in under you and not many leaving above you = stagnation. UAL will crank up the hiring again soon probably on the order of ~1200 or more a year. That means more people under you than at SWA in a given time period. More people under you is a good thing all around as it its not stagnating you in relative seniority. At UAL you'd have more people leaving above you, that means progression. From the personnel and seniority prospective UAL wins.

You've been at SWA a year, and say you are happy flying the 737. That's fine. Right now you're an FO. However, you could be a CA at UAL rather rapidly on it probably less than 2 years. Yes a bit juinor, but see my comment above about the seniority lists. You wouldn't be very junior for very long. At SWA you'd be an FO for a decade (just me spitballing but I think that's pretty close to when you can first have seniority to upgrade). There are opportunity costs there to consider. WB flying. Have you done it? Ever? I wouldnt be too quick to cast stones until you try it. I've done both. I much prefer WB flying. No reroutes. No junior mans. No multi leg days into the wee hours. It's one and done. Hit the town, get some sleep. One leg home. Int'l trips where I work (DAL) are pretty good credit wise. So I usually do maybe 2-4 trips a month. I'm off 17 days each month on average. I have buddies at UAL on the 777/787. Their trips are not much different than ours. Some folks don't like the Int'l stuff, that's ok. But until you try it, I wouldn't knock it. I will never go back to narrow body flying. Those schedules are brutal. At SWA you'd never get the chance. You're stuck in the 73 flying domestic (I don't consider Hawaii or carribbean flying international) for your whole career.

You mentioned pay. I have buddies that are farily senior captains at SWA. They can't touch what I make in a year (sorry about the W2 comment, I am just comparing this for the poster here). I work way less than they do and make more than they do. We chat and joke about it all the time. Since UALs new contract, I would say your earning potential for your career there, would be much better than SWA AND you wouldn't have to be a slave to your board all the time. Yes, you can make good money at SWA, but you gotta hustle AND you have to have seniority.

I can't speak to the Elliot factor. I have been reading up about him though. I never really knew who he was until I read about him here on APC. That's a wild card for sure.

Driving to work is great. So I've been told. I've been a commuter my whole career so I wouldn't know. UAL has a decent commuting policy and if there's a UAL base you'd liek maybe a move? IDK. Of all your points, this one is probably the one I would say has the most horsepower. I hate commuting, always have, always will. However, I knew I'd be one and I've just learned to cope with it over the last several decades. Really none of the airlines have a base I would be willing to move to. So there's that. That's why I live where I live and commute. Home is important, however one must remain flexible for a given opportunity.

What's your healthcare like? What about retirement and investment plans? Who has the best options? These are important considerations too.

This industry is volatile. You never know which one is going to be the king and which one is going to be the goat. It's always changing. Since deregulation the industry has wildly consolidated. Which I think has lessened the peaks and valleys of volatility. How long do you have in the industry? How much opportunity costs are you willing to eat? I think most would agree that earning potential is the major driver for most of us, a close second is living in base. But bases close too. Never say never.

My recommendation would be to go to UAL. You have more potential there, especially if you have a long time horizon in this industry. Best of luck to you it's certainly a first world "problem"

Originally Posted by Request20Right

This Elliot news comes at a weird time for me. I just hit my year mark here at Southwest. I’m stoked to be settling in, making year 2 pay, and I am 58% in base (have 1400 people underneath me in the company so 88% company seniority), driving to work. I do have a class date at United on 7/23. I had applied to UAL last year and delayed because I wanted to see how the contract was going to shake out, and I ended up getting the job offer after going to the interview in January. The delays at United with Boeing pushed the class date back until now, and I only found out about two weeks ago that it would be in July.


This has coincided with this Elliot news, and is really having me scratch my head if staying is going to be a bad move. I do not think that Elliot's main goal is the long term success of the ariline and I fear that they don’t have a plan to turn things around. Of course this is speculation but if they sell off the aircraft to create cash, set up a leaseback program to lease the airplanes back to Southwest, and do stock buybacks, this will undermine our strong cash reserves. This may ultimately liquidate the company of their money.


Over the past week, I have come to the determination that the only reason I would leave is to get the chance to chase other aircraft. But to be honest, I don’t care for widebody international flying at UAL. The grass isn't greener I'm learning. I see some of my friend's schedules and I prefer the our schedule flexibility and vacation, and everything here at Southwest. I get more days off a month than my friends at UAL flying the 737. So my MO currently is to stay, but I am unsure about the future and if I am ignorant to what is coming towards Southwest. Of course nobody has a crystal ball, but I'm wondering if I'll regret turning down my UAL start date once we learn more about Elliot's motives and what it will do the company.

Originally Posted by Request20Right

Looking at the seniority progression at United, has me being 75% in 2051. Granted that's with no growth, and United plans to hire I think another 7,000 Pilots in the next many years. It's a lofty goal for sure. Sure we are having our max 7 delays right now.


Sure there is an LAX base for United and it's junior, but I see people with comparable seniority to me in base on the 737 (1 year in) and they don't have as good a schedule or ability to move stuff around like at SWA. I could do rhe 787 out of LAX eventually but I looked at the bid packets and there are only like 4 or 5 locations they go to from there. To me it just doesn't seem as glamorous as it once was when I was a student pilot. I think I'm chasing the chase. And I guess what I'm realizing is that a jet is a jet and at the end of the day it's a job.

I am not letting this Elliot thing affect my decision since largely it's outcome is out of my control. Hopefully this forces the company to innovate and we could be seeeing our best years yet.

Originally Posted by Seminole00

Are you sure about that 75% at 2051 part? Use 17000 as a reference, 75 percent put the number at 12750 or 4250 retirements. Spread out 27 years that’s only 157 retirements per year. This is assuming no growth at all and no early retirements. In 27 years we will lose more than 13000 pilots due to retirements and 4000/17000 put you at about 23 percent. I suspect you had the two percentage backwards.

Originally Posted by Request20Right

Thank you to everyone who spent time and bringing up valid points. It's funny I'm actually sitting in Amsterdam right now on some time off and I'm realizing I don't have an interest in doing the long haul stuff. Didn't sleep on the flight, felt wiped when I got here, and clammy/oily skin. It was student pilot dream but now that I think of it, I'd rather travel the world on my own time. I realize there is more pay in the end of the career as a widebody pilot, but if I'm tired now, how will I feel later on in life. Also it takes many years to reach the point of a WB CA, so I feel like I'd be doing the same job at SWA on a 73 until I eventually upgrade to a CA.

I'm 29, living in San Diego, and I have good seniority in base. I did the seniority projection and based on NO GROWTH at Southwest I'll be 50 percent in 2036. Looking at the seniority progression at United, has me being 75% in 2051. Granted that's with no growth, and United plans to hire I think another 7,000 Pilots in the next many years. It's a lofty goal for sure. Sure we are having our max 7 delays right now.

I have 20 days off this month since I overlap dropped 2 reserve days, shortened it to a 2 day of reserve, and then gave it away. How can I complain with what I've been doing with my schedule. Some months I have 20 days a month off and don't credit, or some I've done 145 TFP with 15 days off. I'm learning how to clear my board and pick up premium. I like pairing selective reserve days with trips if I don't think I'm going to get called.

Sure there is an LAX base for United and it's junior, but I see people with comparable seniority to me in base on the 737 (1 year in) and they don't have as good a schedule or ability to move stuff around like at SWA. I could do rhe 787 out of LAX eventually but I looked at the bid packets and there are only like 4 or 5 locations they go to from there. To me it just doesn't seem as glamorous as it once was when I was a student pilot. I think I'm chasing the chase. And I guess what I'm realizing is that a jet is a jet and at the end of the day it's a job.

I am not letting this Elliot thing affect my decision since largely it's outcome is out of my control. Hopefully this forces the company to innovate and we could be seeeing our best years yet.

Originally Posted by Turbosina

A buddy of mine is one year older than you, and in the exact same position (1year OAK FO,lives in base). I've given him pretty much the same advice as you're giving yourself. If you don't want to do WB flying, then I'd stay right where you are. I wouldn't give up a year's seniority, and if you drive to work at SWA -- then the same advice x1000. I'm really enjoying UAL but in your case, I don't think it makes sense to start over...

Originally Posted by KnightNight

One thing to consider about WB flying, you don’t have to do it but what it does for you on the NB fleet is make people leave your category/base/seat to go do it, making you more senior quicker than simply a single fleet.