CH1203

Whats this TOF that everyone keeps talking about?

Standbyzeros

The Other Forum…SWAPA union forum.

flyguy81

Doubt 300 just up and leave next year. You might have some resume washers but the people who quit for better pay/cba wont leave.

TheBlueBaron

Why do you doubt 300 leave next year? 300 left this year so far. I doubt the flow of OO resume washers will slow anytime soon. And since our hiring and growth are obviously slowing, upgrade time will be going back up. Why not just get your retro/bonus and go to UA and upgrade immediately with a big check in hand. I've been here 6 years and I'm still considering moving on.

jetset

We only have about 170 retirements in 2024

flyguy81

Quitters dropped a ton when the ‘16 cba was ratified. You’ll always have some chasing a quick upgrade or WB, but majority of people aren’t taking a job here for that reason. At 6 yrs, you’ll upgrade next year so it’s a wash time wise and you’ll make more here than if you quit due to being higher on the longevity scale. Only reason to bail with 6 yrs is if you commute to a legacy hub or want to fly big jets.

That’s also a lot of seniority to give up if a recession does hit/Age 67 goes into effect. Legacy hires will slow and guys won’t be as inclined to bypass if the old farts get another 2 yrs at the top. Do what makes you happy…. I thought about it in ‘21 as a 5 yr FO and it didn’t make sense at my age…too many young guys hired since.

TheBlueBaron

APC shows 289. Guess they need to update.

jetset

That was probably last updated before COVID and the VSPs

TheBlueBaron

Totally different pilot market than in '16. Next year UA retires almost 500. DL 500. AA almost 1000. And this trend continues for years. Add in the medical outs and the quick upgrades should continue at those airlines. Recession seems doubtful at this point as well. A slowdown, perhaps. So hiring slows a bit over at these carriers maybe, but doubtful of furloughs. How about here though. We've way overhired and with the lack of growth and retiremennts, I'd say we furlough before the others. Management already threatened it (1221). Add in the lack of vision from our "leaders", a -7 that may or may not show up, shrinking profit margins, etc... why would anyone with 20+ years come here and stay? Ok, maybe if you live in BNA but we share many bases with those other carriers.

As far as upgrade here, if we only upgrade 500 next year, I doubt upgrade stays at 6.5ish years. Tons of bypassers still. But we'll see.

I still think the resume wash continues next year.

TheBlueBaron

Ok so then roughly 100 less retirements for us. Even more reason for the exodus to continue.