Nice Raise.
04-09-2023, 06:24 PM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 752
A release is different than the company dropping a TA on us.
I think the company is counting on negotiating fatigue setting in. They’re not crazy.
If I were in their shoes, I think I’d be counting on the same thing. After all, in the past, we have demonstrated a strong susceptibility to capitulate to negotiating fatigue. And just a few months ago, both Alaska and Delta melted in the face of negotiating fatigue despite the most favorable negotiating environment for the profession in more than half a century.
If I were the company, I’d drop a TA with what appears to be a large raise and some cosmetic improvements to some other high visibility items (like disability, the NEC, and a smattering of work rules) two to six months after the SAV, right when the pilot group thinks they have the company on the ropes.
The pilot group will believe the TA that the company drops will be the result of what they think is the massive pressure created by the SAV and pilots leaving (I don’t think the company cares much about pilots leaving because they can just replace them - sooner or later - with D225 koolaid drones). I think the pilot group will ratify a TA like that with a 75%-ish approval vote in a mistaken belief that they really stuck it to the company, That TA will be nowhere near what we could achieve if we waited for a release. A TA approval in that circumstance - before a release - will be a massive win for the company. They will have utterly outplayed us.
IMO, right now is the most leverage we are likely to ever have going forward. SWA, and most of the other airlines, are about to monumentally spin up their ab initio programs. Eight or nine years from now, when we are in the throes of our next negotiating cycle, our pilot group is likely to be heavily populated with homegrown, true believer company loyalists courtesy of D225. They will be supremely dedicated to the company that scooped them up and raised them - like ducklings imprinted on their mother duck.
If we capitulate to negotiating fatigue prior to a release from mediation, we will pay the price for years to come, similar to how we are now for not holding SWAPA’s feet to the fire back in 2016 in terms of settling for more than a billion dollars less than Platform and almost zero work rule changes. But this time will be worse because, if we fold like Alaska and Delta did, we will be giving up far more than we gave up in 2016.
Now is THE time. We will not “get it next cycle” if we don’t get it this time. We have all the leverage NOW. Next cycle, in all likelihood, we will have nowhere near the leverage we have now. This contract has to be a true generational contract or we will see this place deteriorate even further in terms of a place to work and to build a future.
I think the company is counting on negotiating fatigue setting in. They’re not crazy.
If I were in their shoes, I think I’d be counting on the same thing. After all, in the past, we have demonstrated a strong susceptibility to capitulate to negotiating fatigue. And just a few months ago, both Alaska and Delta melted in the face of negotiating fatigue despite the most favorable negotiating environment for the profession in more than half a century.
If I were the company, I’d drop a TA with what appears to be a large raise and some cosmetic improvements to some other high visibility items (like disability, the NEC, and a smattering of work rules) two to six months after the SAV, right when the pilot group thinks they have the company on the ropes.
The pilot group will believe the TA that the company drops will be the result of what they think is the massive pressure created by the SAV and pilots leaving (I don’t think the company cares much about pilots leaving because they can just replace them - sooner or later - with D225 koolaid drones). I think the pilot group will ratify a TA like that with a 75%-ish approval vote in a mistaken belief that they really stuck it to the company, That TA will be nowhere near what we could achieve if we waited for a release. A TA approval in that circumstance - before a release - will be a massive win for the company. They will have utterly outplayed us.
IMO, right now is the most leverage we are likely to ever have going forward. SWA, and most of the other airlines, are about to monumentally spin up their ab initio programs. Eight or nine years from now, when we are in the throes of our next negotiating cycle, our pilot group is likely to be heavily populated with homegrown, true believer company loyalists courtesy of D225. They will be supremely dedicated to the company that scooped them up and raised them - like ducklings imprinted on their mother duck.
If we capitulate to negotiating fatigue prior to a release from mediation, we will pay the price for years to come, similar to how we are now for not holding SWAPA’s feet to the fire back in 2016 in terms of settling for more than a billion dollars less than Platform and almost zero work rule changes. But this time will be worse because, if we fold like Alaska and Delta did, we will be giving up far more than we gave up in 2016.
Now is THE time. We will not “get it next cycle” if we don’t get it this time. We have all the leverage NOW. Next cycle, in all likelihood, we will have nowhere near the leverage we have now. This contract has to be a true generational contract or we will see this place deteriorate even further in terms of a place to work and to build a future.
04-09-2023, 07:27 PM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,264
Agree with your analysis...with one exception...D225 is an abject failure. Ask people who actually know (not Training Ctr Mgr) and you'll discover fewer than 100 people in the pipeline. Just the tuition portion of the program is a $112K loan from SWACU. That does not include any expenses (food, housing, etc). If you are on the University path, it's only a 'letter of intent' that means nothing until R-ATP, then 2 years at a 'partner airline'. You aren't locked into coming to SWA. You can easily head to DAL or AA or elsewhere.
04-10-2023, 10:02 AM
#34
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 76
I’ve flown with several pilots involved with the D225 program hiring. What I heard from those conversations leads me to agree with the sentiment that it will eventually have an impact on negotiations (either in this round or the next). What I’m about to say isn’t meant to denigrate the pilots coming up, and it isn’t a problem unique to SWA. Most of us baby boomers and Gen Xers went through hell and back just to get to a major. Furloughs, bankruptcies, lost pensions, the lost decade +, etc, etc….I envy the young folks coming in right now. No degree essentially required, multiple class offerings, etc. It’s an amazing time to be starting. And, many people who are much less aware of the previous history of this profession are coming in. To think the backgrounds and lack of experience won’t be a factor in negotiations would be shortsighted.
04-10-2023, 09:27 PM
#36
At your mom's house
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: cpt 737
Posts: 2,798
04-10-2023, 10:34 PM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,264
They weren't a management droid. They weren't coming from the perspective of selling D225 - at all. They were more like issuing a warning a la Leonardo DiCaprio's character in the movie, "Don't Look Up."
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