Mozam

BJ is a puppet. He cannot even face the shareholders face to face , he is doing the meeting online. I am sure he will have a teleprompter telling him what to say .


This place has no one at the helm.

hoover

maybe I could finally get summer off

sailingfun

I am confused, are you guys in mediation?

Mozam

What would make you think that ?

Smooth at FL450

for several months...hence the mediator.

Mozam

Atvthe of may after the SAV ,SWAPA will be asking to be released after each negotiate a meeting . Wall Street is not going to like that.

Smooth at FL450

About damn time. Bring it.

Lewbronski

The better the SAV approval margin and the better the turnout, the better our chances are that we will get a better contract. Anyone who votes no is undercutting their own position and is jeopardizing the well-being of themselves and their families as well as the well being of every pilot on the list and their families and is also harming the profession.

Having said that, it is a near certainty that FordHarrison advised management at both Alaska and Delta how to respond to their overwhelming SAV’s. It’s also a near certainty that FordHarrison is advising SWA management now and will advise SWA management how to respond to our SAV.

If it’s an overwhelming approval here with a near 100% turnout like it was at both Alaska and Delta, we can expect a similar response from SWA management as we saw from Alaska and Delta management: a probing, low-ball TA within a few months of the SAV.

Though it IS possible that we could get released this coming summer, it is unlikely. I am saying that so that we don’t succumb to negotiating fatigue if we have to wait another 18-24 months for a release. That’s just the way the game typically gets played. It’s much more likely that we end up having to wait 18-24 months than we get released this summer, though far from a sure thing. It can happen sooner.

Why is it unlikely that we don’t get released this summer? Read this case. Then, after you’ve read that case, consider that the average time in mediation of all cases closed by the NMB from 1 Jan 2018 to 1 Mar 2023 is just under 700 days. Then, remember that we entered mediation on 15 Sep 2022.

Realize also that Delta waited for nine months to file for mediation after opening negotiations. When they got their TA, they were nearly three years into mediation. We waited 30 months to file for mediation and we are currently 205 days into mediation.

RJSAviator76

Good points Lew, but I wonder if the company would be stupid enough to prolong it that long given the current pilot market, and especially if SWAPA starts the information campaign to dissuade people from coming here.

Lewbronski

A release is different than the company dropping a TA on us.

I think the company is counting on negotiating fatigue setting in. They’re not crazy.

If I were in their shoes, I think I’d be counting on the same thing. After all, in the past, we have demonstrated a strong susceptibility to capitulate to negotiating fatigue. And just a few months ago, both Alaska and Delta melted in the face of negotiating fatigue despite the most favorable negotiating environment for the profession in more than half a century.

If I were the company, I’d drop a TA with what appears to be a large raise and some cosmetic improvements to some other high visibility items (like disability, the NEC, and a smattering of work rules) two to six months after the SAV, right when the pilot group thinks they have the company on the ropes.

The pilot group will believe the TA that the company drops will be the result of what they think is the massive pressure created by the SAV and pilots leaving (I don’t think the company cares much about pilots leaving because they can just replace them - sooner or later - with D225 koolaid drones). I think the pilot group will ratify a TA like that with a 75%-ish approval vote in a mistaken belief that they really stuck it to the company, That TA will be nowhere near what we could achieve if we waited for a release. A TA approval in that circumstance - before a release - will be a massive win for the company. They will have utterly outplayed us.

IMO, right now is the most leverage we are likely to ever have going forward. SWA, and most of the other airlines, are about to monumentally spin up their ab initio programs. Eight or nine years from now, when we are in the throes of our next negotiating cycle, our pilot group is likely to be heavily populated with homegrown, true believer company loyalists courtesy of D225. They will be supremely dedicated to the company that scooped them up and raised them - like ducklings imprinted on their mother duck.

If we capitulate to negotiating fatigue prior to a release from mediation, we will pay the price for years to come, similar to how we are now for not holding SWAPA’s feet to the fire back in 2016 in terms of settling for more than a billion dollars less than Platform and almost zero work rule changes. But this time will be worse because, if we fold like Alaska and Delta did, we will be giving up far more than we gave up in 2016.

Now is THE time. We will not “get it next cycle” if we don’t get it this time. We have all the leverage NOW. Next cycle, in all likelihood, we will have nowhere near the leverage we have now. This contract has to be a true generational contract or we will see this place deteriorate even further in terms of a place to work and to build a future.