Even if upgrades flipped, DL $3.1M ahead
03-26-2023, 10:51 AM
#41
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Joined APC: Jun 2014
Posts: 160
There are those can’t learn and those that won’t. Sadly, we have a few of each.
With that said, I have much more confidence in our pilot group than most of you on here. I am confident the SAV is going to pass with 95+% and will be VERY disappointed in anything less than 90%.
03-26-2023, 12:02 PM
#42
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,264
As the ladies in the south say when people are this dense “Bless his heart”!
There are those can’t learn and those that won’t. Sadly, we have a few of each.
With that said, I have much more confidence in our pilot group than most of you on here. I am confident the SAV is going to pass with 95+% and will be VERY disappointed in anything less than 90%.
There are those can’t learn and those that won’t. Sadly, we have a few of each.
With that said, I have much more confidence in our pilot group than most of you on here. I am confident the SAV is going to pass with 95+% and will be VERY disappointed in anything less than 90%.
My concern lies with what kind of TA we will end up ratifying here.
It seems like the prevailing sentiment is that a successful SAV will dramatically change the ballgame in terms of our leverage vis a vis the RLA in the near-term. It won't. In the long term, yes. But not in the short term. I'll caveat that by saying if it scares the company into realizing that a strike is eventually inevitable if they don't start truly moving, then it might expedite our process (but that would be, in a way, sort of outside of the mechanisms of the RLA).
While the SAV is an absolutely essential step toward building our leverage, we still have to realize that the RLA is a long game. We are only 191 days into mediation right now. That is an important input into the calculus that goes into determining when we might be released from mediation. In all likelihood, we are still well over a year from attaining a release.
Hopefully, we will get released much sooner than is to be expected. The Spirit pilots had spent just under 1,000 days in mediation before they were released, and eventually struck, in 2010. The American pilots spent exactly one year in mediation before they were released, and eventually struck, in 1997.
Given the dearth of awareness among our pilot group as to how the RLA works, if we are held in mediation for another 12-24 months beyond the SAV, which is not at all infeasible, I have a feeling that negotiating fatigue will become very real. Once negotiating fatigue takes over, the results are predictable. An 84% approval of a TA-2 like lagging contract is an example.
If our group were truly aware of the, by design, "long, drawn out" nature of the RLA, and especially of the mediation process, we might have more of a willingness to deal with what will likely be a long slog after the SAV. But absent that awareness, it seems like a lot of guys will start to think things like, "The RLA is slanted against us," and "We're never going to get released." Those sorts of ideas can, and have in the past, lead to a throwing in the towel effect and sense of resignation.
I'll post this again here:
Last edited by Lewbronski; 03-26-2023 at 12:12 PM.
03-26-2023, 02:20 PM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,152
03-26-2023, 02:53 PM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 100
My concern lies with what kind of TA we will end up ratifying here.
It seems like the prevailing sentiment is that a successful SAV will dramatically change the ballgame in terms of our leverage vis a vis the RLA in the near-term. It won't. In the long term, yes. But not in the short term. I'll caveat that by saying if it scares the company into realizing that a strike is eventually inevitable if they don't start truly moving, then it might expedite our process (but that would be, in a way, sort of outside of the mechanisms of the RLA).
While the SAV is an absolutely essential step toward building our leverage, we still have to realize that the RLA is a long game. We are only 191 days into mediation right now. That is an important input into the calculus that goes into determining when we might be released from mediation. In all likelihood, we are still well over a year from attaining a release.
...
Given the dearth of awareness among our pilot group as to how the RLA works, if we are held in mediation for another 12-24 months beyond the SAV, which is not at all infeasible, I have a feeling that negotiating fatigue will become very real. Once negotiating fatigue takes over, the results are predictable. An 84% approval of a TA-2 like lagging contract is an example.
It seems like the prevailing sentiment is that a successful SAV will dramatically change the ballgame in terms of our leverage vis a vis the RLA in the near-term. It won't. In the long term, yes. But not in the short term. I'll caveat that by saying if it scares the company into realizing that a strike is eventually inevitable if they don't start truly moving, then it might expedite our process (but that would be, in a way, sort of outside of the mechanisms of the RLA).
While the SAV is an absolutely essential step toward building our leverage, we still have to realize that the RLA is a long game. We are only 191 days into mediation right now. That is an important input into the calculus that goes into determining when we might be released from mediation. In all likelihood, we are still well over a year from attaining a release.
...
Given the dearth of awareness among our pilot group as to how the RLA works, if we are held in mediation for another 12-24 months beyond the SAV, which is not at all infeasible, I have a feeling that negotiating fatigue will become very real. Once negotiating fatigue takes over, the results are predictable. An 84% approval of a TA-2 like lagging contract is an example.
Obviously one unknown, is the public perception when the SAV comes down. They are relatively NOT well versed in the RLA, and any threat of anyone's plans being boned does not do anything for profits, or repairing brand damage. I know this vote is strategically planned to take advantage of that, the company isn't stupid and also knows this. It's helluva game of chicken to play.
03-26-2023, 10:14 PM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2021
Posts: 318
Thank you for the support. I really don't get it either.
This will probably make some people mad, but it's not intended to. Playing armchair psychoanalyst for a bit: my best guess is that when a pilot has made a decision to commit themselves to a particular airline, particularly after they've been at that airline for more than a couple of years, their ego becomes bound to that decision. They need to know that they were right about that decision and that people who made other decisions weren't as right about their decisions. Obviously, if this sort of dynamic is, in fact, a factor in what you're seeing play out on this thread and others, then it's not a binary thing. It happens on a spectrum. Some people are more ego-bound to their decision than others. I think it has at least something to do with our seniority system that imposes such a steep cost on those who might otherwise decide to leave. That factor may tend to subconsciously dispose people to need to justify the rightness of their decision to themselves and others even more than it might without the sort of seniority system we live under.
I'm sure some version of the above is playing out in myself as well. Maybe in my case, since I'm "past V1" at SWA, my way of trying to battle my egoic demons is to fight for the best possible contract so that I can ego-justify my decision long ago to come here. Maybe.
Maybe other people's way is to tell themselves and those who will listen that in spite of X, Y, and Z, SWA is the best place overall because of A, B, and C. People who challenge that idea also challenge their ego.
And ... cue the psychobabble, "speak for yourself," etc attacks in 3, 2, 1.
This will probably make some people mad, but it's not intended to. Playing armchair psychoanalyst for a bit: my best guess is that when a pilot has made a decision to commit themselves to a particular airline, particularly after they've been at that airline for more than a couple of years, their ego becomes bound to that decision. They need to know that they were right about that decision and that people who made other decisions weren't as right about their decisions. Obviously, if this sort of dynamic is, in fact, a factor in what you're seeing play out on this thread and others, then it's not a binary thing. It happens on a spectrum. Some people are more ego-bound to their decision than others. I think it has at least something to do with our seniority system that imposes such a steep cost on those who might otherwise decide to leave. That factor may tend to subconsciously dispose people to need to justify the rightness of their decision to themselves and others even more than it might without the sort of seniority system we live under.
I'm sure some version of the above is playing out in myself as well. Maybe in my case, since I'm "past V1" at SWA, my way of trying to battle my egoic demons is to fight for the best possible contract so that I can ego-justify my decision long ago to come here. Maybe.
Maybe other people's way is to tell themselves and those who will listen that in spite of X, Y, and Z, SWA is the best place overall because of A, B, and C. People who challenge that idea also challenge their ego.
And ... cue the psychobabble, "speak for yourself," etc attacks in 3, 2, 1.
Well said about the ego and confirmation bias in people making a decision and feeling the need to validate it. In all honesty, I believe that exceptionalism mentality that many SWA pilots have will be our demise if we cannot see reality. Reality is that SWA sucks right now. And needs major improvements beyond a contract if we want to keep up with the times.
03-26-2023, 10:22 PM
#46
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Joined APC: Oct 2021
Posts: 318
That mentality will be the demise of SWA. The SWA exceptionalism mentality must be destroyed if we want progress. It’s 2023 not 2003
03-28-2023, 09:46 AM
#47
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,152
Obviously one unknown, is the public perception when the SAV comes down. They are relatively NOT well versed in the RLA, and any threat of anyone's plans being boned does not do anything for profits, or repairing brand damage. I know this vote is strategically planned to take advantage of that, the company isn't stupid and also knows this.
It's helluva game of chicken to play.
Yes, but the company burned it’s reputation with the Christmas meltdown. We are simply practicing tough love against an abusive family member.
.
03-28-2023, 10:10 AM
#48
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Joined APC: Dec 2017
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 986
And 1221 WARNs. And constant reroutes. And paying out performance bonuses after punting operational reliability into the stands. And bait and switch. And max duty days for min overnights. And find your own hotel and ride. And dividends over investing in the people or the operation. And delaying contracts for an extra cycle each cycle. And hiring a former union president as the lead negotiator.
These aren’t even the actions of an abusive family member. These are the actions of a sociopath that we have to have a business relationship with to pay the bills. An abusive family member has a conscience.
A sociopath has no conscience, and SWA repeatedly proves over and over again that it is a corporation ruthlessly focused on short term return on invested capital over everything else. Pretending that we can have an intervention and go back to being a happy, or at least productive, family relationship is delusional.
We (labor) have a business relationship with an entity that is only focused on dollars; punching them in the nose by ramping up leverage via the RLA process to impact them economically is our best bet to improve our lives while we have to work for them.
Exposing SWA for what they are to the traveling public is a nice sentiment but I think deep down, every American knows that corporations are soulless entities. Even knowing that, they’ll still label us as greedy pilots while ignoring the .0001%ers who took tax dollars to survive and then provided garbage service while maximizing their personal compensation coming out of the pandemic.
03-30-2023, 10:53 AM
#49
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,152
And 1221 WARNs. And constant reroutes. And paying out performance bonuses after punting operational reliability into the stands. And bait and switch. And max duty days for min overnights. And find your own hotel and ride. And dividends over investing in the people or the operation. And delaying contracts for an extra cycle each cycle. And hiring a former union president as the lead negotiator.
These aren’t even the actions of an abusive family member. These are the actions of a sociopath that we have to have a business relationship with to pay the bills. An abusive family member has a conscience.
A sociopath has no conscience, and SWA repeatedly proves over and over again that it is a corporation ruthlessly focused on short term return on invested capital over everything else. Pretending that we can have an intervention and go back to being a happy, or at least productive, family relationship is delusional.
We (labor) have a business relationship with an entity that is only focused on dollars; punching them in the nose by ramping up leverage via the RLA process to impact them economically is our best bet to improve our lives while we have to work for them.
Exposing SWA for what they are to the traveling public is a nice sentiment but I think deep down, every American knows that corporations are soulless entities. Even knowing that, they’ll still label us as greedy pilots while ignoring the .0001%ers who took tax dollars to survive and then provided garbage service while maximizing their personal compensation coming out of the pandemic.
These aren’t even the actions of an abusive family member. These are the actions of a sociopath that we have to have a business relationship with to pay the bills. An abusive family member has a conscience.
A sociopath has no conscience, and SWA repeatedly proves over and over again that it is a corporation ruthlessly focused on short term return on invested capital over everything else. Pretending that we can have an intervention and go back to being a happy, or at least productive, family relationship is delusional.
We (labor) have a business relationship with an entity that is only focused on dollars; punching them in the nose by ramping up leverage via the RLA process to impact them economically is our best bet to improve our lives while we have to work for them.
Exposing SWA for what they are to the traveling public is a nice sentiment but I think deep down, every American knows that corporations are soulless entities. Even knowing that, they’ll still label us as greedy pilots while ignoring the .0001%ers who took tax dollars to survive and then provided garbage service while maximizing their personal compensation coming out of the pandemic.
.
08-20-2023, 01:05 PM
#50
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Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 239
I ran the numbers between Delta's new contract and SWA's current contract if the upgrade situation between the two airlines was turned on its head: if SWA all of the sudden sped up to a 6-month upgrade (which is what is currently available at Delta) and if Delta hit a brick wall and slowed to a 7-year upgrade (which is roughly the junior upgrade currently available at SWA). The results are depicted in the chart below.
Even if, hypothetically, SWA was the airline, instead of DL, with the super-quick upgrades available, DL would still come out $3.12M ahead of a SWA pilot after 30 years. That's 38.5% more career earnings at DL vs SWA even with a completely unrealistic upgrade scenario modeled. That's not including how much more retirement contributions that a DL pilot would receive into their B-Fund over the course of 30 years compared to a SWA pilot.
So that there's no confusion, I'm providing this info mainly for current (and future) SWA pilots so that we all have objective information, even if we use the most "kooly" of unrealistic company apologist scenarios, in terms of career compensation, to give us data upon which to build a "reasonable" case for dramatically higher rates. Using more realistic upgrade projections, we would need to achieve no less than a $400/TFP 12-year CA rate to simply pull even with DL's current career earnings. And that doesn't account for the substantially higher physical and career liability we incur over and above DL due to the increased number of takeoffs, landings, and block hours we fly versus DL.
Finally, not that it needs to be said, but career earnings is just ONE area of the contract in which we lag. There are many, many other areas of the contract that also trail the industry.
Even if, hypothetically, SWA was the airline, instead of DL, with the super-quick upgrades available, DL would still come out $3.12M ahead of a SWA pilot after 30 years. That's 38.5% more career earnings at DL vs SWA even with a completely unrealistic upgrade scenario modeled. That's not including how much more retirement contributions that a DL pilot would receive into their B-Fund over the course of 30 years compared to a SWA pilot.
So that there's no confusion, I'm providing this info mainly for current (and future) SWA pilots so that we all have objective information, even if we use the most "kooly" of unrealistic company apologist scenarios, in terms of career compensation, to give us data upon which to build a "reasonable" case for dramatically higher rates. Using more realistic upgrade projections, we would need to achieve no less than a $400/TFP 12-year CA rate to simply pull even with DL's current career earnings. And that doesn't account for the substantially higher physical and career liability we incur over and above DL due to the increased number of takeoffs, landings, and block hours we fly versus DL.
Finally, not that it needs to be said, but career earnings is just ONE area of the contract in which we lag. There are many, many other areas of the contract that also trail the industry.
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