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Old 01-24-2023, 03:06 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER
Btw, we’re on our fourth NH class for the year. ALL of them have had less NHs than what they were shooting for with this week’s having only 35 according to the CWA seniority list.
I thought they were overbooking classes. They’re still missing their goals with overbooking?
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Old 01-24-2023, 03:20 AM
  #32  
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Hiring number howgozit:

Planned hiring for January: 212

Howgozit: 131

Unless they have a class of 81 waiting in the wings for the 31st of January, we are going to miss by a country mile, and that appears to even be a with a self-stated desire to overbook due to attrition. SWAPA has stated we have lost 10% of new hires in 2022. That does does not account for those who were called with the offer and declined…that’s a number we will never know, but it only compounds the truth of the matter. Extrapolated over 2023, this has us missing our numbers by a large margin that will not be able to be swept under the rug. I believe we will see a face saving maneuver of “recalibrating” those numbers very soon. Not because we cannot meet those numbers, you see, but because of reasons and stuff.

To potential new hires, understand: Any perceived benefit of SWA (and there certainly are some, I’m not scorched-earth on SWA) DEMANDS growth. Our very business model is built around needing to grow. If we cannot do that, the reasons to come dwindle. We have very very few retirements relative to others. If your career is to prosper, we MUST grow. At this point, we are not hitting our numbers, but wait for Jan 31st for the official howgozit postmortem.

Poopoo out.
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Old 01-24-2023, 05:14 AM
  #33  
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Old 01-24-2023, 05:40 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by poopooplatter
Hiring number howgozit:

Planned hiring for January: 212

Howgozit: 131

Unless they have a class of 81 waiting in the wings for the 31st of January, we are going to miss by a country mile, and that appears to even be a with a self-stated desire to overbook due to attrition. SWAPA has stated we have lost 10% of new hires in 2022. That does does not account for those who were called with the offer and declined…that’s a number we will never know, but it only compounds the truth of the matter. Extrapolated over 2023, this has us missing our numbers by a large margin that will not be able to be swept under the rug. I believe we will see a face saving maneuver of “recalibrating” those numbers very soon. Not because we cannot meet those numbers, you see, but because of reasons and stuff.

To potential new hires, understand: Any perceived benefit of SWA (and there certainly are some, I’m not scorched-earth on SWA) DEMANDS growth. Our very business model is built around needing to grow. If we cannot do that, the reasons to come dwindle. We have very very few retirements relative to others. If your career is to prosper, we MUST grow. At this point, we are not hitting our numbers, but wait for Jan 31st for the official howgozit postmortem.

Poopoo out.
Again, wait until DLA and then subsequently UAL ink their new deals. Not only will NH classes miss their goals even more, but the amount of current seniority list pilots will bail to an even greater extent.

Say it with me: LEVERAGE

Unless they want to hire 1500 hour fresh ATPs eventually, they’ll need to sign a drastically improved contract to be able to staff the jets that are inbound.
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Old 01-24-2023, 06:18 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER
Again, wait until DLA and then subsequently UAL ink their new deals. Not only will NH classes miss their goals even more, but the amount of current seniority list pilots will bail to an even greater extent.

Say it with me: LEVERAGE

Unless they want to hire 1500 hour fresh ATPs eventually, they’ll need to sign a drastically improved contract to be able to staff the jets that are inbound.
At the rate things are going they will be starting a CTP class and hiring R-ATPs soon…
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Old 01-24-2023, 06:54 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER
Again, wait until DLA and then subsequently UAL ink their new deals. Not only will NH classes miss their goals even more, but the amount of current seniority list pilots will bail to an even greater extent.

Say it with me: LEVERAGE

Unless they want to hire 1500 hour fresh ATPs eventually, they’ll need to sign a drastically improved contract to be able to staff the jets that are inbound.
The company will not have a problem hiring 1500 hr pilots and/ or having R-ATP. They are already telling captain upgrades they will be flying with very low time new hire pilots .
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Old 01-24-2023, 07:53 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by flensr
I think Frontier and American are worse. Everywhere else seems to be better, including Spirit. So much wrong with SWA right now and not only are they perfectly happy with how things are, they're intentionally stiff-arming any external input because "we have the same data you do" (direct quote from leadership during recurrent training on 3 Jan 2021).

Anywhere but Frontier and American are better than this. 1 yr upgrades at both Delta and United, 7-figure career earnings deficit even for SWA FOs with 6-7 years on the list. And the company keeps doubling down on the stupidity, highlighted by the fact that Carl K is still heading SWA's negotiation team. How much more evidence does anyone need to see how bad of a choice this place is?
Not so sure. Domicile-specific choices aside… AA has something other than 737s, 2-3 year upgrade soon to be sub-2 years, widebody flying, better DC, and arguably better schedules (rare to have more than 3 legs/day, not beholden to AM/PM). AA is definitely not without its warts, but there’s a reason so many FOs left SW for AA in 2022.

Frontier, sure.
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Old 01-24-2023, 09:01 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER
Again, wait until DLA and then subsequently UAL ink their new deals. Not only will NH classes miss their goals even more, but the amount of current seniority list pilots will bail to an even greater extent.

Say it with me: LEVERAGE

Unless they want to hire 1500 hour fresh ATPs eventually, they’ll need to sign a drastically improved contract to be able to staff the jets that are inbound.
It IS leverage but not so much in the way you’re suggesting it is.

IMO, the company doesn’t care a whole lot who they’re hiring as long as they can fog a mirror and meet the FAA’s requirements. In fact, the less qualified they are, the better, because those sorts of people feel a bit beholden to the company. A certain former SWA-focused hiring consultant (RB) called it “desperation hiring” and said SWA specialized in it. So, my perspective is that the company has zero problem scraping the bottom of the barrel. They’ll find enough people to fill the seats needed to sort of keep up with retirements and attrition - at least enough to be able to define it in their corporate-speakish, twisted way as “keeping up.”

BUT!

The real leverage comes from accentuating our ability to pose the credible threat of a legal strike. Historically, one of the most powerful counters to the threat of a strike that airline management has been able to wield is to menace pilots with the possibility of hiring scabs.

Given the dynamics right now of the pilot hiring market, I’d say the threat to us posed by scabs is at a nadir. It doesn’t exist. IMHO, there is almost zero chance the company could hire and train enough scabs to be able to run enough of an operation to make a difference in the face of a SWAPA strike. The company is effectively neutered (though they’d never admit it). Neutralizing the hazard posed by scabs is LEVERAGE. Lots of leverage.
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Old 01-24-2023, 09:10 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Lewbronski
It IS leverage but not so much in the way you’re suggesting it is.

IMO, the company doesn’t care a whole lot who they’re hiring as long as they can fog a mirror and meet the FAA’s requirements. In fact, the less qualified they are, the better, because those sorts of people feel a bit beholden to the company. A certain former SWA-focused hiring consultant (RB) called it “desperation hiring” and said SWA specialized in it. So, my perspective is that the company has zero problem scraping the bottom of the barrel. They’ll find enough people to fill the seats needed to sort of keep up with retirements and attrition - at least enough to be able to define it in their corporate-speakish, twisted way as “keeping up.”

BUT!

The real leverage comes from accentuating our ability to pose the credible threat of a legal strike. Historically, one of the most powerful counters to the threat of a strike that airline management has been able to wield is to menace pilots with the possibility of hiring scabs.

Given the dynamics right now of the pilot hiring market, I’d say the threat to us posed by scabs is at a nadir. It doesn’t exist. IMHO, there is almost zero chance the company could hire and train enough scabs to be able to run enough of an operation to make a difference in the face of a SWAPA strike. The company is effectively neutered (though they’d never admit it). Neutralizing the hazard posed by scabs is LEVERAGE. Lots of leverage.
YES! ALL OF THIS!

Keep your eyes on the prize. Hiring is a specifically company problem that they are going to manage or not manage. Since there is little to no transparency on hiring goals and progress, we need to concentrate on what we can control, which is navigating the RLA to bring it to one of its two logical conclusions. The quicker we do that, the quicker we will have an offer on the table to either vote for or vote down.

Hope is not a strategy, and hoping that we lose a bunch of new hires to other places is a terrible way to establish leverage since it’s largely out of our control.
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Old 01-24-2023, 10:41 AM
  #40  
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Mission specialists who think we are flying to the moon.
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