Originally Posted by waterskisabersw

I agree it's a red herring, for the most part. There is a shortage of pilots, but pilots are not born pilots, nor are they forged in supernovas billions of years ago. They are trained. It's a simple calculus to pay enough to balance out the cost benefit equation that young potential pilots, and balance it well enough to keep the pipeline of new pilots mostly full.

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So if we're losing 200 pilots a year (2% attrition, so very low), the total cost of that is actually much higher than what one might expect because we don't know when they're going to quit. So it's the cost of training/acquiring 200 pilots plus the cost of caring 200 pilots of overstaffing in preparation for 200 pilots to quit unexpectedly.

So yes, not as significant as some might want to attribute to pure shortage reasons, but still around the tune of tens of millions of dollars per year per percentage of attrition. I did the rough math of $150k in cost to carry a pilot and 100 training events at $75k each for a wag, at it works out to around $22m per percentage of attrition, and that's overstaffing matching attrition perfectly.

Originally Posted by Fly4FunAA

Yeah I think it’s best to not say anything to them until I’m about to go to class at DAL. Ironically I could drive to a SWA base but even then just the opportunities at Delta right now outweigh SWA unless we get a contract that’s so good it makes me rethink. I could always move to a Delta base too.

I share all this just to be real about what some of us new hires are dealing with and hopefully it can be a wake up call that we need a good contract otherwise I won’t be the only one.

Originally Posted by Lewbronski

To your point in your previous post, though, SWAPA sucks at communications and education. It’s as if they’re run by boomers who think Facebook is still the latest and greatest and that podcasts are the shizz. If I could get SWAPA to do one thing, it’d be to outsource their communications department (overseen strategically, of course, by pilots) to a cutting edge digital marketing firm with proven very recent results. I’m thinking perhaps a group like The Lincoln Project or some other very clever and cutting edge group that has made a serious impact - because SWAPA is like Dana Carvey’s grumpy old man when it comes to social media marketing and outreach. It’s almost comic how bad they are at it and how thoroughly Luddite they are. They are hopelessly done in by themselves and outmatched by who they’re up against: the company and firms like FordHarrison.

Originally Posted by tm602

I’d be careful before asking for an outsource on comms. My previous union did just that for surveys and other comms and I swear, every time someone changed toilet paper rolls, we got a comm about it. I really don’t want another entity inundating me with unwanted voicemails, phone calls and emails. I want to know the important stuff and otherwise be left alone. People tune out the unions when they get too much “communication”, and then when something important happens they miss it because of apathy and/or being tuned out. Education is key, then the members know where to go for what they want. And be less susceptible to Kool Aid because they have gotten tired to death of comms that in the grand scheme of things were unimportant.

Originally Posted by Lewbronski

It would be interesting to know precisely how much the cost of new hire training is and then how much the “carrying cost” of whatever number of additional pilots they decided to “carry” as a result of increased attrition would be.

But as far as the value of the leverage that could be generated by being able to pose the credible threat of a strike goes: in 2019, SWA generated operating revenues of $22.428 billion. If we divide that figure by 365 to determine an average daily operating revenue, we get $61.4 million (which is remarkably similar to American’s inflation-adjusted number from 1997). 2019 is probably the most recent financially similar year to 2022 for SWA due to the interruption of covid.

If your number of $22 million per percent of pilot attrition is accurate, that means each day of a strike equals nearly three percent of pilot attrition. And if your number is on the high side, each day of a strike equals something even more than ~3% per day of attrition.

In one month, a strike could directly cost SWA $1.84 billion in lost revenue if current operating revenues are on a par with 2019. That doesn’t include the value of lost revenue due to the “book-away phenomena” that would occur in the 30-90 days of status quo (cooling off and possible PEB) that must be maintained before a strike and after a release from mediation.

The $61 million loss per day ($1.84 billion per month) of operating revenues also doesn’t include the cost of the loss of intangible goodwill that SWA would suffer in the form of a tarnishing of its one big happy family public image and in a further deterioration of employee relations if a strike occurred.

For reference, there have been three mainline passenger airline (most similar to us) pilot strikes since 1997: Spirit’s lasted four days, NWA’s lasted 14 days, and American’s lasted 24 minutes.

Do you seriously think SWA would let a pilot dispute go to a strike before they moved significantly toward meeting our demands? And if, in the wild world where a strike might happen, do you think it would last more than a couple of weeks at the very, very longest?

Originally Posted by Teamroper

Help with some math and industry POV.

Some of the proposals here (55-60%) would require a non-negligible increase in fares, headed into an economic downturn.

Does anyone know the average pilot wage spread across the group? It would simplify the math.

EBITDA has run around $4B with net running $2B pre-Covid. A $50k increase across 10,000 pilots is $500MM, or 25% of net (approx 2.5% top-line). I get the sense that a $50k increase on avg is not popular here.

The avg fare for 2019 looks like $128 - ish.

If the goal of the pilot group is $75k avg bump or 100k…has anyone run the math on how that affects sales? How many fewer flight will be flown, and how much will the profit sharing be reduced?

Also, is there any discussion to unite the overall employee groups or encouragement to maximize top-line? I read stuff on here that seems counter-productive to the business. Surely everyone understands more total profits and a better customer experience provided by a united hard-working team gives everyone more bargaining power.

I’m concerned (wondering) about hitching my wagon to a group that isn’t focused on being better than the competition to ensure long-term security and revenue. The pie will shrink in a down-turn but it seems like pilots could set a great tone to grow a bigger share of that pie with the slightest bit of focus on where the bread gets buttered.

What am I missing? Some attitudes here are a death march toward automation, and a divided workforce which is easily beaten in negotiations. Check out the rail deal. No savior for unions regardless of party.

I have ZERO 121 experience. Outsider. Wannabe. Clueless.

Educate me.

Tell me why if I was running the union I wouldn’t want every pilot setting the tone, BELOVED by customers, their kids, and ALL of the other staff groups making it happen? Why wouldn’t I want other pilots from other companies jealous as hell of the SWA experience? Why wouldn’t I want the folks on the ramp feeling appreciated as part of one team, with a culture lead by pilots (who might go toss a bag once in awhile)?

Why wouldn’t I want the PILOTS to be the face of the airline, always supporting the brand? When it comes time for negotiations, NOW you hold the cards at the table because you are more than just an expense, you are the top line.

Maybe I’m crazy but the pilots/team are the ones who see the customers every day, not the CSuite. Why not own that, and control the brand?

As a former employer, its so strange to read about members of the team essentially sabotaging profits. The contract and striking becomes the only leverage…thats so backwards in a customer facing environment where the front line has the ability to OWN the brand. Be undeniable, get paid.

Blast away. I want to understand this beast.

Originally Posted by Profane Kahuna

you are not an outsider, you are a company shill trying to lower our value.


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Originally Posted by Smooth at FL450

let your chief know of your dilemma at your 9 month review. They need to know these things…

Originally Posted by Teamroper

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4Vh...tzL74vS5ApGAWR

Seems like a decent primer for a noob. Touches on ability vs willingness to repay (what brought out the tar and feathers earlier). Overall industry environment, and some strategy discussed. Generally favorably for SWA pilots, especially new hires imho. Somewhat non-committal (his a consultant).

Thoughts?