Delta AIP
12-08-2022, 06:42 AM
#141
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2021
Posts: 37
You can do it this way, but if they catch wind of where you’re going the next CP will get a phone call, potentially before you begin at the new job. The job offer is conditional. Maybe in this environment Delta or FedEx would be so desperate they wouldn’t care, but I didn’t want to get burned on both sides by using up all my sick time and then quitting with no notice. Ymmv
12-08-2022, 07:01 AM
#143
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,029
You can do it this way, but if they catch wind of where you’re going the next CP will get a phone call, potentially before you begin at the new job. The job offer is conditional. Maybe in this environment Delta or FedEx would be so desperate they wouldn’t care, but I didn’t want to get burned on both sides by using up all my sick time and then quitting with no notice. Ymmv
12-08-2022, 07:07 AM
#144
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: American Airlines Brake Pad Replacement Technician
Posts: 476
In general terms at swa
the left seat is weak, right seat is ready to go the distance. The Union reflects the SWA is a "Captains Airline" quote that's thrown around frequently. The Union comms reflect that tone deafness.
The junior 33% of the list is where the muscle is in this group. The top 33% just want there time value of money contract.
It's a huge mountain the union has to climb before we ever get any kind of respectable SAV #s . SWAPA leadership has the polling data, they know this. That's why the slow roll.
Thank you to the bottom 33% doing the heavy lifting, and congratulations to those with new better opportunities.
the left seat is weak, right seat is ready to go the distance. The Union reflects the SWA is a "Captains Airline" quote that's thrown around frequently. The Union comms reflect that tone deafness.
The junior 33% of the list is where the muscle is in this group. The top 33% just want there time value of money contract.
It's a huge mountain the union has to climb before we ever get any kind of respectable SAV #s . SWAPA leadership has the polling data, they know this. That's why the slow roll.
Thank you to the bottom 33% doing the heavy lifting, and congratulations to those with new better opportunities.
12-08-2022, 07:57 AM
#146
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2022
Posts: 195
It is truly pathetic. It was a 45 second call and very professional and the only question was how I planned on getting the ID back, FedEx it is. We are not that important to them and they really will be just fine with or without us, So if you are leaving just man up and call and tell them and walk away. You do not have to give 2 weeks notice, in fact as I stated before I wouldn’t recommend it at all.
12-08-2022, 09:00 AM
#147
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 209
Agreed! What a joke it is to think that management gives two sh$&s about how many of us are wearing red lanyards. They speak money. Until they can’t attract/retain pilots in order to grow margins for shareholders, they won’t care. I have no doubt that they will offer an industry standard contract, but not a penny more or a day earlier than they have to.
In our favor is that SWA is currently operating at sub optimal efficiency, flying 30-40 aircraft less than what we could because of a lack of pilots. They said today that with nearly 100 aircraft orders next year, our pilot staffing and 2,160 new hires won’t be able to fly all available aircraft until late next year….leaving money on the table.
In our favor is that SWA is currently operating at sub optimal efficiency, flying 30-40 aircraft less than what we could because of a lack of pilots. They said today that with nearly 100 aircraft orders next year, our pilot staffing and 2,160 new hires won’t be able to fly all available aircraft until late next year….leaving money on the table.
12-08-2022, 10:29 AM
#148
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,264
The pilot shortage argument is a red herring.
The company has been and will be able to continue filling seats even if there is an uptick in people leaving.
They have done the math. How much does a new pilot contract with the improvements we are looking for, including a minimum raise of only 20% thanks to Alaska and Delta setting the bar there, let alone a much higher raise that many of us are seeking, cost the company each year if the company agrees to it? I’m no business analyst, but my guess is the answer is at least in the nine figures and probably in the ten figures. The Delta MEC stated that their 18% raise will cost $100 million/month.
How much does 10%, or even higher, new hire attrition cost the company each year? My guess is probably at least an order of magnitude less than nine or ten figures. That’s not even accounting for the cost-saving effect that newer hires leaving has on the average pilot cost by creating a downward pressure on average pilot longevity.
And it’s also not accounting for the arguably more important intangible positive effect for the company of what RB called “desperation hiring.” Desperation hiring is when SWA hires “black sheep” candidates who would have had trouble getting hired elsewhere for various reasons or were guys who were in desperate situations like, for example, furloughed from other carriers. RB, who used to run a pilot hiring consultancy firm focused on SWA pilot candidates said SWA specialized in and had a preference for desperation hires because, once on the seniority list, desperation hires tended to feel indebted to and loyal to the corporation.
ALPA has come out and said the idea of a pilot shortage is a myth. They published a report detailing why they believe that.
Trying to push the idea of the enormous cost to the company of not agreeing to an industry leading contract because of its impact on pilot hiring and retention in the context of a pilot shortage which doesn’t even clearly exist doesn’t really add up. To the company, the math doesn’t compute.
What does compute?
The cost to the company of a strike and the cost to the company of passengers booking away in the face of the credible threat of a strike. Back in 1997, when American’s pilots threatened to go out on strike with their 9,300 pilots (roughly the same size as SWA today), the estimated cost of a strike per day to American in 1997 dollars was $30 million. Adjusted for inflation, that equals $55 million per day in 2022 dollars. American reportedly also lost tens of millions of dollars in revenue in the days leading up to their potential strike as passengers booked away in the fear of American shutting down if the pilots struck.
If SWA is staring down the barrel of losing $55 million or more dollars per day, that’s $1.65 billion per month in lost revenue as the result of a strike. Of course, that’s using American’s numbers from 1997. SWA’s 2022 numbers may significantly differ from those numbers but I think the point remains: a strike could cost SWA orders of magnitude more money per month than even historically high pilot attrition might cost SWA in a year.
Do you think SWA wants to get anywhere near that? I don’t.
I bet if they looked at our pilot group as posing a credible threat to them of being able to inflict that kind of loss, they’d very quickly take us much more seriously.
The company has been and will be able to continue filling seats even if there is an uptick in people leaving.
They have done the math. How much does a new pilot contract with the improvements we are looking for, including a minimum raise of only 20% thanks to Alaska and Delta setting the bar there, let alone a much higher raise that many of us are seeking, cost the company each year if the company agrees to it? I’m no business analyst, but my guess is the answer is at least in the nine figures and probably in the ten figures. The Delta MEC stated that their 18% raise will cost $100 million/month.
How much does 10%, or even higher, new hire attrition cost the company each year? My guess is probably at least an order of magnitude less than nine or ten figures. That’s not even accounting for the cost-saving effect that newer hires leaving has on the average pilot cost by creating a downward pressure on average pilot longevity.
And it’s also not accounting for the arguably more important intangible positive effect for the company of what RB called “desperation hiring.” Desperation hiring is when SWA hires “black sheep” candidates who would have had trouble getting hired elsewhere for various reasons or were guys who were in desperate situations like, for example, furloughed from other carriers. RB, who used to run a pilot hiring consultancy firm focused on SWA pilot candidates said SWA specialized in and had a preference for desperation hires because, once on the seniority list, desperation hires tended to feel indebted to and loyal to the corporation.
ALPA has come out and said the idea of a pilot shortage is a myth. They published a report detailing why they believe that.
Trying to push the idea of the enormous cost to the company of not agreeing to an industry leading contract because of its impact on pilot hiring and retention in the context of a pilot shortage which doesn’t even clearly exist doesn’t really add up. To the company, the math doesn’t compute.
What does compute?
The cost to the company of a strike and the cost to the company of passengers booking away in the face of the credible threat of a strike. Back in 1997, when American’s pilots threatened to go out on strike with their 9,300 pilots (roughly the same size as SWA today), the estimated cost of a strike per day to American in 1997 dollars was $30 million. Adjusted for inflation, that equals $55 million per day in 2022 dollars. American reportedly also lost tens of millions of dollars in revenue in the days leading up to their potential strike as passengers booked away in the fear of American shutting down if the pilots struck.
If SWA is staring down the barrel of losing $55 million or more dollars per day, that’s $1.65 billion per month in lost revenue as the result of a strike. Of course, that’s using American’s numbers from 1997. SWA’s 2022 numbers may significantly differ from those numbers but I think the point remains: a strike could cost SWA orders of magnitude more money per month than even historically high pilot attrition might cost SWA in a year.
Do you think SWA wants to get anywhere near that? I don’t.
I bet if they looked at our pilot group as posing a credible threat to them of being able to inflict that kind of loss, they’d very quickly take us much more seriously.
12-08-2022, 10:51 AM
#149
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2022
Posts: 48
The pilot shortage is more about opportunity cost than turnover (although turnover carries some big soft costs that last). BJ (who seems down-to-earth on old youtube stuff) stated on cnbc they are missing over 5% top line due to jets sitting, and thats before new deliveries and more retirements or possible attrition. Competitors are adding bases, and markets. Hiring is a chokepoint for long-term market strategy while the deck is being reshuffled now. If SWA can’t retain these newhires, its gonna hurt that much more later when qualified candidates are hard to find and competitors are staffed up. (Another reason an early contract is better).
Thank you for the history on the RLA. Interesting stuff.
12-08-2022, 11:05 AM
#150
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2009
Posts: 612
The pilot shortage argument is a red herring.
The company has been and will be able to continue filling seats even if there is an uptick in people leaving.
They have done the math. How much does a new pilot contract with the improvements we are looking for, including a minimum raise of only 20% thanks to Alaska and Delta setting the bar there, let alone a much higher raise that many of us are seeking, cost the company each year if the company agrees to it? I’m no business analyst, but my guess is the answer is at least in the nine figures and probably in the ten figures. The Delta MEC stated that their 18% raise will cost $100 million/month.
How much does 10%, or even higher, new hire attrition cost the company each year? My guess is probably at least an order of magnitude less than nine or ten figures. That’s not even accounting for the cost-saving effect that newer hires leaving has on the average pilot cost by creating a downward pressure on average pilot longevity.
And it’s also not accounting for the arguably more important intangible positive effect for the company of what RB called “desperation hiring.” Desperation hiring is when SWA hires “black sheep” candidates who would have had trouble getting hired elsewhere for various reasons or were guys who were in desperate situations like, for example, furloughed from other carriers. RB, who used to run a pilot hiring consultancy firm focused on SWA pilot candidates said SWA specialized in and had a preference for desperation hires because, once on the seniority list, desperation hires tended to feel indebted to and loyal to the corporation.
ALPA has come out and said the idea of a pilot shortage is a myth. They published a report detailing why they believe that.
Trying to push the idea of the enormous cost to the company of not agreeing to an industry leading contract because of its impact on pilot hiring and retention in the context of a pilot shortage which doesn’t even clearly exist doesn’t really add up. To the company, the math doesn’t compute.
What does compute?
The cost to the company of a strike and the cost to the company of passengers booking away in the face of the credible threat of a strike. Back in 1997, when American’s pilots threatened to go out on strike with their 9,300 pilots (roughly the same size as SWA today), the estimated cost of a strike per day to American in 1997 dollars was $30 million. Adjusted for inflation, that equals $55 million per day in 2022 dollars. American reportedly also lost tens of millions of dollars in revenue in the days leading up to their potential strike as passengers booked away in the fear of American shutting down if the pilots struck.
If SWA is staring down the barrel of losing $55 million or more dollars per day, that’s $1.65 billion per month in lost revenue as the result of a strike. Of course, that’s using American’s numbers from 1997. SWA’s 2022 numbers may significantly differ from those numbers but I think the point remains: a strike could cost SWA orders of magnitude more money per month than even historically high pilot attrition might cost SWA in a year.
Do you think SWA wants to get anywhere near that? I don’t.
I bet if they looked at our pilot group as posing a credible threat to them of being able to inflict that kind of loss, they’d very quickly take us much more seriously.
The company has been and will be able to continue filling seats even if there is an uptick in people leaving.
They have done the math. How much does a new pilot contract with the improvements we are looking for, including a minimum raise of only 20% thanks to Alaska and Delta setting the bar there, let alone a much higher raise that many of us are seeking, cost the company each year if the company agrees to it? I’m no business analyst, but my guess is the answer is at least in the nine figures and probably in the ten figures. The Delta MEC stated that their 18% raise will cost $100 million/month.
How much does 10%, or even higher, new hire attrition cost the company each year? My guess is probably at least an order of magnitude less than nine or ten figures. That’s not even accounting for the cost-saving effect that newer hires leaving has on the average pilot cost by creating a downward pressure on average pilot longevity.
And it’s also not accounting for the arguably more important intangible positive effect for the company of what RB called “desperation hiring.” Desperation hiring is when SWA hires “black sheep” candidates who would have had trouble getting hired elsewhere for various reasons or were guys who were in desperate situations like, for example, furloughed from other carriers. RB, who used to run a pilot hiring consultancy firm focused on SWA pilot candidates said SWA specialized in and had a preference for desperation hires because, once on the seniority list, desperation hires tended to feel indebted to and loyal to the corporation.
ALPA has come out and said the idea of a pilot shortage is a myth. They published a report detailing why they believe that.
Trying to push the idea of the enormous cost to the company of not agreeing to an industry leading contract because of its impact on pilot hiring and retention in the context of a pilot shortage which doesn’t even clearly exist doesn’t really add up. To the company, the math doesn’t compute.
What does compute?
The cost to the company of a strike and the cost to the company of passengers booking away in the face of the credible threat of a strike. Back in 1997, when American’s pilots threatened to go out on strike with their 9,300 pilots (roughly the same size as SWA today), the estimated cost of a strike per day to American in 1997 dollars was $30 million. Adjusted for inflation, that equals $55 million per day in 2022 dollars. American reportedly also lost tens of millions of dollars in revenue in the days leading up to their potential strike as passengers booked away in the fear of American shutting down if the pilots struck.
If SWA is staring down the barrel of losing $55 million or more dollars per day, that’s $1.65 billion per month in lost revenue as the result of a strike. Of course, that’s using American’s numbers from 1997. SWA’s 2022 numbers may significantly differ from those numbers but I think the point remains: a strike could cost SWA orders of magnitude more money per month than even historically high pilot attrition might cost SWA in a year.
Do you think SWA wants to get anywhere near that? I don’t.
I bet if they looked at our pilot group as posing a credible threat to them of being able to inflict that kind of loss, they’d very quickly take us much more seriously.
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