Contract Expectations
01-19-2023, 06:46 AM
#201
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 752
The long and short of it is we won't know how many new hires show up each week because they have instructors, requals, and roll overs. A better wag would be to take the monthly totals and compare them to the proposed hiring plan that was published in December. We will see what the end of January looks like. I suspect they will be on or maybe just slightly below glideslope based on the level of activity and word around the training center. There are plenty of warm qualified bodies looking for major airline jobs right now.
There is going to be churn for sure. As we become a second tier job with a lackluster contract, folks will leave here to go other places. I just don't think there is going to be some huge wave of no shows since they are overbooking and have plenty of applicants coming in the door.
There is going to be churn for sure. As we become a second tier job with a lackluster contract, folks will leave here to go other places. I just don't think there is going to be some huge wave of no shows since they are overbooking and have plenty of applicants coming in the door.
01-19-2023, 07:07 AM
#202
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
I have never felt so old in my life. 🤣
https://youtu.be/LyUN40weqIk
01-19-2023, 07:39 AM
#203
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Position: Left
Posts: 1,260
Flew with a young whippersnapper not too long ago who had NEVER flown an airplane with steam gauges… 😲
I have never felt so old in my life. 🤣
https://youtu.be/LyUN40weqIk
I have never felt so old in my life. 🤣
https://youtu.be/LyUN40weqIk
I am shocked we still not have them
Fly it like a 200 , is a lifestyle.
01-19-2023, 08:23 AM
#204
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,776
Flew with a young whippersnapper not too long ago who had NEVER flown an airplane with steam gauges… 😲
I have never felt so old in my life. 🤣
https://youtu.be/LyUN40weqIk
I have never felt so old in my life. 🤣
https://youtu.be/LyUN40weqIk
01-19-2023, 08:30 AM
#205
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
Ouch! Didn't freak out. I’m an ol’ Jetstream 31 guy. Just caught me off guard. If you’re planning to kick it off a couple hundred feet above minimums on an approach to minimums, maybe let the old man know ahead of time so he doesn’t get confused. 🤣
01-19-2023, 08:40 AM
#206
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Position: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.
Posts: 6,803
Precisely. Even if it lasted a month (no way in hell), everyone can save up a month’s strike fund.
01-19-2023, 08:57 AM
#208
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
Originally Posted by Palmtree Pilot;[url=tel:3574826
3574826[/url]]Zap’s all good, no freak outs flying with me for 2 days in rainy CA. Excellent CA/pilot, that lets everyone know his appreciation for their work.
01-19-2023, 09:55 AM
#209
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,264
Just an FYI to all of you long timers that are making 400K a year and have been for the last 10 years. All of these new hires are coming from regionals that were paying them 75-80K a year and they have families and mortgages and bills. Think about the fact that they haven't had the ability to build up a "strike fund" so its not so easy for them to stare a strike in the face. I have been hearing " well I have a big strike fund, I'm ready to wait it out for the long haul, you should too. And if you dont it means you weren't smart with your money."
I am 100% a yes vote for the SAV, but a lot of captains and senior FOs are pretty tone deaf when it comes to this stuff with new hires.
I am 100% a yes vote for the SAV, but a lot of captains and senior FOs are pretty tone deaf when it comes to this stuff with new hires.
************************************************** **
The chances of us going on strike - at some point down the road - are nearly nil, not because Congress, though it has the ability to after the RLA process plays out, will shut us down, but because the chances the company will allow our dispute to go all the way to a strike are close to zero before they will feel compelled to settle with us.
A successful strike authorization vote improves our leverage by communicating to the company and to the NMB that we are united around the intent to go as far as we need to go to in order to obtain our contractual demands.
The company would have to drag this thing all the way through a release from mediation, 30 days of cooling off, and likely, 60 days of a PEB, all while revenue is taking a serious beating in the form of passengers booking away in order for us to get to the point of a strike.
Don’t get me wrong: it wouldn’t surprise me if our management, like the railroad executives did last September, waited until day 60 of a PEB to agree to a contract favorable to us. But…
All of this would be against the backdrop of the Christmas Meltdown of 2022. The narrative of “WTF is up with Southwest Airlines?” has already begun to develop in the public as a result of the meltdown. It would become more and more entrenched the longer management persisted in making SWA look like even more of a clown show by holding out.
And SWA would be tagged as an “Official Total Disaster” by the public if management foolishly allowed a strike to actually occur. On top of that, our “family,” “culture,” “luv,” “coheart” brand would be even more thoroughly exposed to the public as a facade.
In the extremely unlikely event we actually did end up going on strike, though, how long do you think it would last before the company capitulated? Close to $70M per day lost revenue. Of the three mainline passenger airline strikes since 1997, they lasted, from longest to shortest: 14 days, 4 days, and 24 minutes. How long would one last here? How many guys here could not go two or three weeks (likely much shorter) without pay in order to secure a contract that would pay them and their families back in spades for their short-term sacrifice?
And, BTW, none of those strikes occurred in an environment where finding replacement workers would be as difficult as today. The threat of and use of replacement workers has historically been one of the most effective strike-breaking tools for management. In that respect, SWA management is essentially neutered today.
A SAV has almost nothing to do with actually going on strike. There are many more steps that would be required to get to a strike after a SAV. But it has a lot to do with communicating a message to the the company and to the NMB that we are united around the idea of presenting the credible threat of a legal strike. That is leverage.
01-19-2023, 12:33 PM
#210
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 290
Y'all are missing the whole point. You want solidarity? How about you understand the situation that some of the pilots you are flying with are in and aren't so tone deaf as to tell them that its not hard to build up a strike fund while you are making about 20K a month more than them. Geez.
And yes I know there's a very slim chance somewhere far in the future that a strike would actually happen. You dont have to say it another time. I'm trying to get captains and senior FOs to understand how tone deaf they are when they talk about their planes and boats and big strike fund that's so easy to get.
And yes I know there's a very slim chance somewhere far in the future that a strike would actually happen. You dont have to say it another time. I'm trying to get captains and senior FOs to understand how tone deaf they are when they talk about their planes and boats and big strike fund that's so easy to get.
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