Zman81

Lots of things can happen. I read his post as well but I don’t disagree with some of the stuff he said. If SWA grows then all bets are off on all doom and gloom predictions. If it only grows by 30 aircraft well that’s only about 375 pilots at 12.5 pilots per plane. There new manning model according to the VP of flight ops. There is a lot of stuff in play. The economy, fuel costs, etc. If we have really bad inflation with a bad pull back then it could be like 2008 all over again. But I am betting it will not be. When they release the 2021 hiring projections that will be better insight to where we see upgrades going.

at6d

Any word on when they will release those projections?

ipdanno

[QUOTE=e6bpilot;3267903]Yeah same here. 2010-12 were bad years to get hired. Lots of stagnation and then the double whammy max and COVID right when they were in the window to upgrade.

That was the group of pilots who had to commute cross country to OAK for 2-3 years.

If you look at the organic employee numbers on the seniority list vs date of hire, that group definitely took it in the shorts for many reasons. Very little hiring and then zero hiring from MAR 2012 to DEC 2013.[/]

In 2007 the economy softened, then Age 65. In 2008, WN started to hire like gangbusters, then Sept 17th was the last class for 2 1/2 years. THAT was stagnation. Add in the merger, and upgrade went to 10 years. Coulda, woulda, shoulda, absent the (silent) MAX and pandemic, the 2011-2012 hires prolly could have upgraded at 7-8 years. That went away, but given the Q2 report on Options, the upgrade time COULD trend down dramatically, later next year. IMO. YMMV. IIRC. VVMI. RRM. FDAP. ABCD.

79K10

As a 2010 hire I feel his pain. If I waited to upgrade in an east coast base, I think it will be 14 years plus. I do have a little bit of optimism, because GK has talked several times about growth and I believe that is their goal. Whether they can accomplish it or not remains to be seen.

ZapBrannigan

No good rumors from the management brief at CQT this week. Repeated the same stuff we already know about 2021 and no speculation about 2022. Did say they might be pushing back the October upgrades by a month but didn't elaborate on that. Mentioned they're watching bookings closely to see the impact from the Delta variant and rising numbers in some regions.

That's about it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

hoover

sounds like what was being said march 2020.

BuckeyeFO

biggest variable is going to be "when company mandates vaccine"

How many guys that are beating their chest on SWAPA are going to put their money where their mouth is?

If the pilots think that the company won't happily fire 500+ pilots overnight - they've got another thing coming.

e6bpilot

I don't want to make this the same vaccine debate that has taken all of the oxygen out of the room, but out of almost 5000 captains on the line, I am willing to bet the ones who put their money where their mouth is are in the single digits. Lots of tough talk right now, but what SWAPA isn't saying is what ALPA has already said...the company can mandate a vaccine and there is little to nothing that any team of lawyers (or sea lawyers) can do about it.

Loon

aren’t you supposed to be on the regional forum? Get a life.

BuckeyeFO

If you want to act like C2020 and SWAPA forum isn't full of that attitude then so be it.