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Old 06-10-2021, 02:19 AM
  #481  
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Originally Posted by Skyward
I personally don’t think the bypassers will be any more eager to switch seats now than they were pre-covid. Honestly, I think they might be less eager to do so if it involves a commute. You didn’t want to be a junior captian commuting over the last year if you were on the fence about it (reduced flight schedules, blocked seats, masks on jumpseats, hotel restrictions, limited food, etc.) The last year was a rough time to be a commuter, and I think there will still be bypassers playing it safe with their seniority in the base of their choosing until the memories of the covid restrictions are well in the past.

Just my thoughts (maybe wishful thinking )
Living within driving distance of OAK, I'd be OK if you're right
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Old 06-10-2021, 04:30 AM
  #482  
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Originally Posted by Smooth at FL450
We did recently by the office buildings just west of the WINGS building in anticipation of the next expansion...so that adds up with your allegations
That's right...thanks for the reminder.
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Old 06-10-2021, 01:55 PM
  #483  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
My bet is they got religion and will switch seats... right after vacation bidding closes of course.


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What is this “religion” you keep mentioning? I’ve been bypassing for 3 years. Nothing has changed. It was a 1 year delay not 10. I still have 16 years left and my parameters haven’t changed for upgrading. With the displacements to LAX I can’t even hold MDW at 13 years. Of all the bypassers I know, not one has changed their parameters for upgrading. I’m sure some have in the large list of people bypassing. Don’t get me wrong, we all want to upgrade just rather upgrade to a line than reserve. Being in the top 10% of FO’s is a pretty good deal.
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Old 06-10-2021, 04:14 PM
  #484  
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Originally Posted by Cysco4120
What is this “religion” you keep mentioning? I’ve been bypassing for 3 years. Nothing has changed. It was a 1 year delay not 10. I still have 16 years left and my parameters haven’t changed for upgrading. With the displacements to LAX I can’t even hold MDW at 13 years. Of all the bypassers I know, not one has changed their parameters for upgrading. I’m sure some have in the large list of people bypassing. Don’t get me wrong, we all want to upgrade just rather upgrade to a line than reserve. Being in the top 10% of FO’s is a pretty good deal.

I didn't mean to offend. It was just a phrase to suggest that many people who might have been holding out for a certain domicile, or waiting to get a good vacation bid, might now be rethinking that decision in light of the last year. I understand everyone has their own goals and motivations. No offense intended.


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Old 06-10-2021, 05:00 PM
  #485  
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No way in hell I’d commute to reserve to be in charge. I had to start over late in the game but I thoroughly take advantage of my right seat responsibilities or more accurately the lack of.

“Parking checklist complete, nice flying with you” Driving home before the plane is empty.

“What’s the problem with boarding? Oh, I’m going to shop for boat parts. LMK when you’re ready to push”

”getting food and going for a walk. Will make push”

Already did the captain thing.
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Old 06-10-2021, 05:56 PM
  #486  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
I didn't mean to offend. It was just a phrase to suggest that many people who might have been holding out for a certain domicile, or waiting to get a good vacation bid, might now be rethinking that decision in light of the last year. I understand everyone has their own goals and motivations. No offense intended.


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No problem Zap. I wasn’t offended. I was just trying to say that even though there was an additional year added to the time frame that it hasn’t changed the minds of a lot of us. I’m sure there are some that have changed their mind but I honestly don’t think it will be a lot if most of the growth is west coast. I commuted coast to coast to reserve my first 3 years here and it is just not worth it to me. Have a goodnight!
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Old 06-10-2021, 07:04 PM
  #487  
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Originally Posted by Typhoondiver
I’d say 13 per aircraft is a bit fat on staffing level. 12.5 sounds more realistic and desirable to me. Whats my reasoning…
Assuming we currently have 300 pilots out on medical, military leave (aside from remaining ExTOs) -> we are currently staffed with 8200 active pilots to operate 650 aircraft (9000 - 500 FOs on ExTo - 300 out on medical).
This seems to be a good spot (Premium in the summer for everybody).
Assuming we grow by 30 aircraft, we would need to add about 500 pilots next year.
375 (30 x 12.5) + 100 retirements. Round it up to 500.
Thats my prediction based on my napkin math.

Did I mention that I am a pilot and thus an expert on everything and anything😬
Your math is missing the 80 parked airplanes. (110x12.5 is 1375 plus 100 retirements, minus 500 EXTOs is 975…)
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Old 06-10-2021, 07:04 PM
  #488  
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Originally Posted by ROFF
No way in hell I’d commute to reserve to be in charge. I had to start over late in the game but I thoroughly take advantage of my right seat responsibilities or more accurately the lack of.

“Parking checklist complete, nice flying with you” Driving home before the plane is empty.

“What’s the problem with boarding? Oh, I’m going to shop for boat parts. LMK when you’re ready to push”

”getting food and going for a walk. Will make push”

Already did the captain thing.
LOL, I almost fell asleep today at the gate waiting for numbers, oblivious to the fact the captain was in back removing a passenger. Blissful ignorance.
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Old 06-10-2021, 08:48 PM
  #489  
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Originally Posted by Tenacvols
Your math is missing the 80 parked airplanes. (110x12.5 is 1375 plus 100 retirements, minus 500 EXTOs is 975…)
Lets say we grow by 30 airplanes. Then we would have 760 by the end of next year.
760 x 12.5 = 9,500 pilots required. Assuming we have about 9,000 on the seniority list right now we could be hiring 600 (500 plus 100 retirements).
We shall see.
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Old 06-10-2021, 09:06 PM
  #490  
Strike averted!
 
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Well, they are getting hiring team together. I’m guessing at least a class full will be hired.
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