ZapBrannigan

Ha! Very likely true.


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Smooth at FL450

There are 961 FO's bypassing. And then the 1190 senior to him, is what i think he's saying. I'm a mid 2016 hire, and myseniority says there are 1606 FOs between me and the junior captain...which is in addition to those FOs senior to that junior captain. So it all depends on how the bypass trend continues as to whether we've got an upgrade in a couple years or if it's still 5 years off.

docav8tor

Allegedly, management wants to increase the number of pilots trained in a year by a few hundred and need to hire training staff to accomplish this. Is there anyone currently in training that can validate this? Also, what stations are you hearing they wish to add? I've heard EYW (returning), SYR, TYS, CHA, and potentially JFK. Furthermore, what do you make of the 50th rally being held in Houston, rather than the hometown of Dallas? Could they finally be announcing S. America destinations or even more?

Smooth at FL450

We did recently by the office buildings just west of the WINGS building in anticipation of the next expansion...so that adds up with your allegations

at6d

Yeah correct. Even if a thousand bypass (because they can hold it now), there are still a thousand between me and the junior seat.

Pre-Covid they were talking about what, 500 upgrades a year? So it’s at least two years for me in that scenario. I’m guessing it will still be towards the ten year mark.

Smooth at FL450

I'm curious for obvious reasons how those 961 bypassers will act once the music starts up again. Will they continue to bypass or finally upgrade?

ZapBrannigan

My bet is they got religion and will switch seats... right after vacation bidding closes of course.


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e6bpilot

I think it will be a factor, but I think the current crop of holdouts will definitely upgrade for the most part. A new crop of bypassers will be born.

Honestly, if I could upgrade tomorrow to a 2 leg commute vs making captain pay every trip due to premium like I am right now? No brainer. I would stay a FO.
We are definitely in an epic flood of premium flying, but it will surely subside.

Skyward

I personally don’t think the bypassers will be any more eager to switch seats now than they were pre-covid. Honestly, I think they might be less eager to do so if it involves a commute. You didn’t want to be a junior captian commuting over the last year if you were on the fence about it (reduced flight schedules, blocked seats, masks on jumpseats, hotel restrictions, limited food, etc.) The last year was a rough time to be a commuter, and I think there will still be bypassers playing it safe with their seniority in the base of their choosing until the memories of the covid restrictions are well in the past.

Just my thoughts (maybe wishful thinking )

RJSAviator76

Imagine a 2-leg commute across the country. Would you do it, or would you wait until you can hold your regular commute base?

Suppose you’re in BWI, MCO or ATL as a fairly senior FO and you have younger kids in school and you have games and activities to go to. You hold whatever you want. You get your vacation choices. Do you upgrade and commute to OAK or LAX and go to the rock bottom of the list or do you hold out until you can at least hold a line in DAL, HOU or BWI? Or perhaps lance somewhere so you could theoretically drop your trips and pick up where you live?

Something else to consider... this isn’t a regional airline with regional pay scales where everyone is rushing to upgrade so they can get off public assistance and build turbine PIC time. Assuming you take advantage of your seniority living in base, is making extra 30-40k/yr worth the QOL hit that comes with commuting across the country and the loss of seniority horsepower that comes by upgrading at the first opportunity? To some it is, to some it’s not. I think there will always be bypassers, especially when there are seat locks involved.