Upgrade times
06-09-2021, 08:09 AM
#461
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 30
I’d expect next year to see a fair amount of new hires and upgrades.
Lets that say we finish 2022 with 760 airplanes. We are flying I think about 650 now, and have a total fleet of 730. Add in roughly 30 net growth and that’s how I get 760. Feel free to correct, I’m using napkin math.
At our current Manning of 13 pilots per plane (8500 active/650 jets) 760 would require about 9900 pilots. Add in 100 retirements and suddenly that crazy 1000 new hires and 1000 upgrades rumor might actually be plausible.
But then again, I could be wrong!
Lets that say we finish 2022 with 760 airplanes. We are flying I think about 650 now, and have a total fleet of 730. Add in roughly 30 net growth and that’s how I get 760. Feel free to correct, I’m using napkin math.
At our current Manning of 13 pilots per plane (8500 active/650 jets) 760 would require about 9900 pilots. Add in 100 retirements and suddenly that crazy 1000 new hires and 1000 upgrades rumor might actually be plausible.
But then again, I could be wrong!
Last edited by Wildturkey; 06-09-2021 at 08:22 AM.
06-09-2021, 09:42 AM
#462
Strike averted!
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: B737
Posts: 3,786
According to myseniority.com , I’m currently at 74% as a late 2015 hire.
Captains retiring that are senior to you:
within 12 months - 99
within 2 years - 244
within 3 years - 386
within 5 years - 759
within 10 years - 2157
within 15 years - 3496
There are approximately 1190ish above me that can hold it.
Captains retiring that are senior to you:
within 12 months - 99
within 2 years - 244
within 3 years - 386
within 5 years - 759
within 10 years - 2157
within 15 years - 3496
There are approximately 1190ish above me that can hold it.
06-09-2021, 10:09 AM
#463
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Posts: 46
I’d expect next year to see a fair amount of new hires and upgrades.
Lets that say we finish 2022 with 760 airplanes. We are flying I think about 650 now, and have a total fleet of 730. Add in roughly 30 net growth and that’s how I get 760. Feel free to correct, I’m using napkin math.
At our current Manning of 13 pilots per plane (8500 active/650 jets) 760 would require about 9900 pilots. Add in 100 retirements and suddenly that crazy 1000 new hires and 1000 upgrades rumor might actually be plausible.
But then again, I could be wrong!
Lets that say we finish 2022 with 760 airplanes. We are flying I think about 650 now, and have a total fleet of 730. Add in roughly 30 net growth and that’s how I get 760. Feel free to correct, I’m using napkin math.
At our current Manning of 13 pilots per plane (8500 active/650 jets) 760 would require about 9900 pilots. Add in 100 retirements and suddenly that crazy 1000 new hires and 1000 upgrades rumor might actually be plausible.
But then again, I could be wrong!
Assuming we currently have 300 pilots out on medical, military leave (aside from remaining ExTOs) -> we are currently staffed with 8200 active pilots to operate 650 aircraft (9000 - 500 FOs on ExTo - 300 out on medical).
This seems to be a good spot (Premium in the summer for everybody).
Assuming we grow by 30 aircraft, we would need to add about 500 pilots next year.
375 (30 x 12.5) + 100 retirements. Round it up to 500.
Thats my prediction based on my napkin math.
Did I mention that I am a pilot and thus an expert on everything and anything😬
06-09-2021, 10:21 AM
#464
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 30
I’d say 13 per aircraft is a bit fat on staffing level. 12.5 sounds more realistic and desirable to me. Whats my reasoning…
Assuming we currently have 300 pilots out on medical, military leave (aside from remaining ExTOs) -> we are currently staffed with 8200 active pilots to operate 650 aircraft (9000 - 500 FOs on ExTo - 300 out on medical).
This seems to be a good spot (Premium in the summer for everybody).
Assuming we grow by 30 aircraft, we would need to add about 500 pilots next year.
375 (30 x 12.5) + 100 retirements. Round it up to 500.
Thats my prediction based on my napkin math.
Did I mention that I am a pilot and thus an expert on everything and anything😬
Assuming we currently have 300 pilots out on medical, military leave (aside from remaining ExTOs) -> we are currently staffed with 8200 active pilots to operate 650 aircraft (9000 - 500 FOs on ExTo - 300 out on medical).
This seems to be a good spot (Premium in the summer for everybody).
Assuming we grow by 30 aircraft, we would need to add about 500 pilots next year.
375 (30 x 12.5) + 100 retirements. Round it up to 500.
Thats my prediction based on my napkin math.
Did I mention that I am a pilot and thus an expert on everything and anything😬
The good thing is that our firm orders plus options give us a pretty clear picture what we are capable of flexing up to if we see the opportunity.
06-09-2021, 10:40 AM
#465
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
According to myseniority.com , I’m currently at 74% as a late 2015 hire.
Captains retiring that are senior to you:
within 12 months - 99
within 2 years - 244
within 3 years - 386
within 5 years - 759
within 10 years - 2157
within 15 years - 3496
There are approximately 1190ish above me that can hold it.
Captains retiring that are senior to you:
within 12 months - 99
within 2 years - 244
within 3 years - 386
within 5 years - 759
within 10 years - 2157
within 15 years - 3496
There are approximately 1190ish above me that can hold it.
Someday...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
06-09-2021, 11:19 AM
#466
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Posts: 46
Ha. All good points. I agree that less than 13 is optimal and (though they didn’t give an example) the network planning people did mention that they want more staffing efficiency. I think you’re math is solid and probably more likely.
The good thing is that our firm orders plus options give us a pretty clear picture what we are capable of flexing up to if we see the opportunity.
The good thing is that our firm orders plus options give us a pretty clear picture what we are capable of flexing up to if we see the opportunity.
06-09-2021, 12:37 PM
#467
At your mom's house
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: cpt 737
Posts: 2,797
According to myseniority.com , I’m currently at 74% as a late 2015 hire.
Captains retiring that are senior to you:
within 12 months - 99
within 2 years - 244
within 3 years - 386
within 5 years - 759
within 10 years - 2157
within 15 years - 3496
There are approximately 1190ish above me that can hold it.
Captains retiring that are senior to you:
within 12 months - 99
within 2 years - 244
within 3 years - 386
within 5 years - 759
within 10 years - 2157
within 15 years - 3496
There are approximately 1190ish above me that can hold it.
If that holds you're a yr away
06-09-2021, 01:01 PM
#468
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
06-09-2021, 01:41 PM
#469
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 30
Edit: Good luck to you though!
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