Upgrade times
06-09-2021, 03:42 AM
#451
At your mom's house
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: cpt 737
Posts: 2,797
Too bad nearly all the upgrades for the next yr or so will be to ETOPS bases on the west coast for those FAT on the east coast.
seems like all the growth will be DEN west for the foreseeable future.
seems like all the growth will be DEN west for the foreseeable future.
06-09-2021, 04:24 AM
#452
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
Been doing some napkin math:
Retirements:
2021: 67
2022: 126
2023: 174
Aircraft Orders / Retirements / Net Gain
2022: 104 / 15 (estimate) / 89
2023: 100 / 30 (estimate) / 70
Additional Pilots Required (2021 hiring folded into 2022 estimates):
2022 - (89 * 13) + (67 + 126) = 1,350
2023 - (70 * 13) + 174 = 1,084
Currently we have 9100 pilots.
Hypothetical seniority of a very pessimistic 2014 hire today - 65%
At the end of 2022 - 57%
At the end of 2023 - 50%
By the end of 2023 we should be upgrading pilots hired in 2017, or 6 year upgrades. I'm going to assume if times are good, the most junior captain will 62% seniority.
Retirements:
2021: 67
2022: 126
2023: 174
Aircraft Orders / Retirements / Net Gain
2022: 104 / 15 (estimate) / 89
2023: 100 / 30 (estimate) / 70
Additional Pilots Required (2021 hiring folded into 2022 estimates):
2022 - (89 * 13) + (67 + 126) = 1,350
2023 - (70 * 13) + 174 = 1,084
Currently we have 9100 pilots.
Hypothetical seniority of a very pessimistic 2014 hire today - 65%
At the end of 2022 - 57%
At the end of 2023 - 50%
By the end of 2023 we should be upgrading pilots hired in 2017, or 6 year upgrades. I'm going to assume if times are good, the most junior captain will 62% seniority.
Didn't the 8K that came out yesterday say that the net increase in fleet size will be 35 airplanes in 2022, and that we will be retiring about 300 -700s per year for the foreseeable future. So no ANNOUNCED Net fleet growth beyond next year's 35 airplanes?
Are you counting all of the options in those fleet numbers? I appreciate the optimism but with options... something something counting chickens before they hatch.
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06-09-2021, 04:46 AM
#454
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 831
I would suspect that regardless of how things evolve, we will take all those airplanes including options. The wildcard will aircraft retirements...
06-09-2021, 05:53 AM
#457
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,750
06-09-2021, 06:12 AM
#458
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 831
One thing the company cannot accurately account for is how many pilots we have and their status. I would trust SWAPA numbers more than CWA. I used 9100 as a nice round number (we were just below that after VSP), but maybe we are closer to 9000 now.
06-09-2021, 06:43 AM
#459
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,919
Excellent……😂. Fingers crossed all you people in the Central and East coast time zones bypass. I read somewhere late last year on Swalife that DEN and BWI were supposed to be the big growth areas this year. DEN prob won’t happen til next year since the company punted the gate project til next year due to not wanting to pay for it.
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