RJSAviator76

Here you go.

Reese

so SWA ended 2Q with 730 airplanes. They’re expected to end 3Q with 741 airplanes. So that’s 12.8 pilots per plane…

So 13 pilots per plane…

The airline is expected to end 2022 with 765 airplanes…so add 30 firm orders and another 38 options for 2023, and that’s 833 airplanes at BEST.

So even assuming no airplane retirements, ie, 100% pure growth….and 13 pilots per airplane added…

That’s ~1330 pilots needed…

where are the other ~1000 pilots going???

the airline would need ~876 airplanes to justify 11,400 pilots

And the graph you just showed me, is MAYBE 816 airplanes…

again, that’s assuming 13 pilots per plane as is status quo…

hoover

Training float?

flyguy81

Or running fat so quality pilots aren’t taken by other airlines. Every airline is wanting to hire over 2k next year…wishful thinking.

Smooth at FL450

90 firm next year…


Attachment 7144

Smooth at FL450

“Fleet utilization is expected to be limited by Pilot staffing constraints for the majority of 2023, resulting in continued cost headwinds due to operating at suboptimal productivity levels until we are able to optimize staffing with our fleet—which is foundational to our plan to improve operating leverage”

Premium will be flowin…don’t commute to upgrade!

MatthewAMEL

Not sure where you are or in what seat, but flying to CA is better than driving to FO.

e6bpilot

I would expect the company to achieve about 50 percent of their goals. They always shoot high and underdeliver on hiring and upgrades. No big deal, it's just how it has been for the last 10 years or so. Just business. Temper your expectations accordingly.

As for aircraft deliveries, the investor comms rarely tell even half of the story. The company has a history of playing shell games with options, deferrals and move ups, and used airframes. I would expect a lot of chicanery this year in that regard. There are some 700s in the fleet that need to go in a big way. The COO mentioned in his town hall that we will probably be temporarily upgauging a lot of 700 flights to 800 sized airplanes in the future (due to max 7 delivery deferrals). I wouldn't be surprised to see some used 800 airframes appear as well as white tail and "other" max 8 deliveries.

I would expect to end the year at a number bigger than what the filings say, but not much bigger. What I do think will happen is that the 700 retirements will accelerate, which will set the stage for a glut of max 7 and 8 deliveries in late 2023 and beyond. The old 700s are a drag on efficiency and they have been looking to dump them in a big way since prior to Covid.

WHACKMASTER

Which reminds me….what’s going on with the MAXes that Boeing was holding onto for the Chinese airlines? You know, the ones they said they’re not going to hold onto anymore waiting for China to certify the MAX for operation again?

I believe there were about 150 of them. Anyone spoken for those yet?

ZapBrannigan

I think the jury on that is still out.
(He says as he prepares to commute to four days of reserve..)