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Old 07-03-2022, 08:56 AM
  #1551  
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Originally Posted by hoover
Now that DEN is the junior base for captains I bet it goes way more senior for upgrades. All those east coast trannies that want to avoid west coast ETOPS lock can now upgrade.
I think you’re right. Question is whether they hold out for the October bid so they can bid vacation one more time as an FO, or if the kids are back in school so they go ahead and jump on it on the September bid.
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Old 07-03-2022, 09:21 AM
  #1552  
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I think DEN being the junior base is offset by the vacation bidding for September. I predict it goes March '14. 107xxx.
If Oakland is still the predicted landing spot, I bet it goes even deeper. Maybe April '14.

October and November will go senior because of vacation bypassers. December is going to see two things:
Nobody wants to be locked into a December training month and all of those instructors in the summer classes are finally going to be making some money. I think it will dip to 8 years and then maybe even lower in 2023. There was about 14 months of no hiring after July 2014, but then there is a bug bubble after late 2015. Denver will eventually fill out and then it's back to west coast etops lock.
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Old 07-03-2022, 09:50 AM
  #1553  
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Haha. Locked into a training month? Not talking sh!t but I was a December training guy and now I’m January, and that’s not from being pushed back, it’s from being moved up so many times.
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Old 07-03-2022, 10:00 AM
  #1554  
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Originally Posted by Dirkkdiggler
Haha. Locked into a training month? Not talking sh!t but I was a December training guy and now I’m January, and that’s not from being pushed back, it’s from being moved up so many times.

Oh dude I am in the same boat. I will almost assuredly do 2022 CQT twice. That is a FO problem, though. Captains generally don't get jacked around
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Old 07-03-2022, 10:04 AM
  #1555  
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I’ve been moved every year since 2015. This last time was by a couple of months.
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Old 07-03-2022, 11:52 AM
  #1556  
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Originally Posted by CanyonBlue
I always recommend taking the first option, or close to it.
snip
How about an unknown medical issue that pops up? Better to get CA pay while out than FO pay. All things to consider.
I think that could be called a medical bypass... If you know you have a medical issue that's gonna take a lot of time to resolve (surgery to fix a chronic injury for example), take the upgrade, fly a few months to set your insurance pay baseline, and then get your medical issue sorted out. Get up off of first-year seniority while recovering at home on CA disability pay instead of wasting a year of high bidding priority while at the top of the FO seniority list.

It's probably almost as good as taking an upgrade then signing up for a couple of years of continuous military service.
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Old 07-03-2022, 12:07 PM
  #1557  
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Originally Posted by flensr
I think that could be called a medical bypass... If you know you have a medical issue that's gonna take a lot of time to resolve (surgery to fix a chronic injury for example), take the upgrade, fly a few months to set your insurance pay baseline, and then get your medical issue sorted out. Get up off of first-year seniority while recovering at home on CA disability pay instead of wasting a year of high bidding priority while at the top of the FO seniority list.

It's probably almost as good as taking an upgrade then signing up for a couple of years of continuous military service.
AND avoid a long commute west! 1 year out on MD, you'll probably come back way senior
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Old 07-03-2022, 12:38 PM
  #1558  
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Originally Posted by e6bpilot
I think DEN being the junior base is offset by the vacation bidding for September. I predict it goes March '14. 107xxx.
If Oakland is still the predicted landing spot, I bet it goes even deeper. Maybe April '14.

October and November will go senior because of vacation bypassers. December is going to see two things:
Nobody wants to be locked into a December training month and all of those instructors in the summer classes are finally going to be making some money. I think it will dip to 8 years and then maybe even lower in 2023. There was about 14 months of no hiring after July 2014, but then there is a bug bubble after late 2015. Denver will eventually fill out and then it's back to west coast etops lock.
that gap of no hiring was from 10/2014-7/2015
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:46 PM
  #1559  
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Originally Posted by e6bpilot
I think DEN being the junior base is offset by the vacation bidding for September. I predict it goes March '14. 107xxx.
If Oakland is still the predicted landing spot, I bet it goes even deeper. Maybe April '14.

October and November will go senior because of vacation bypassers. December is going to see two things:
Nobody wants to be locked into a December training month and all of those instructors in the summer classes are finally going to be making some money. I think it will dip to 8 years and then maybe even lower in 2023. There was about 14 months of no hiring after July 2014, but then there is a bug bubble after late 2015. Denver will eventually fill out and then it's back to west coast etops lock.
There was true upgrades into Midwest bases this last bid…BWI too I think. I’d guess people will still bypass to avoid a multi-time zone commute to sit rsv. I sure as hell wouldn’t bid BWI if it were the jr base.
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Old 07-03-2022, 09:11 PM
  #1560  
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Oh yeah. Bypassers gonna bypass. I just think the possibility of a Denver upgrade may get a few that were hanging on to take the upgrade to a non etops base so that they can eventually flow back east and not have to worry about a lock.
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