Proximity

Yah we will see. I'm figuring that most that will take an early upgrade there are willing to move there and commit to 12-24 months, thus making upgrade in LAX 1-2 years earlier than any other base. How many pilots really need to commute to be junior captains? If premium comes back for FOs, not many as the 1000 bypasses prove.

I predict the FO side in LAX will be a complete cluster******* and the company will be asking SWAPA for help to keep it staffed without constant turnover. I don't think the company is budgeting to run every new hire though ETOPS training just to have them bid out after 1-2 months.

2019 will be interesting for sure.

ZapBrannigan

I heard the delay is that they can’t find a Hyatt Place far enough from the beach.




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Salukidawg

Premium? That’s not coming back to either seat. They are still planning to replace most of the F/O’s that are upgrading next year. I don’t see anything changing anytime soon on the Premium front, unless there is a one off polar vortex or some other similar event. The company has made it abundantly clear that it wants the manning model this way.

Proximity

If the plan the company has given SWAPA is followed, we will go into summer with approx 250 less FOs then we currently have, yet summer 2019 is projected to break our previous block/flights per day metrics. In addition HI flying is not currently in the schedule, so those flights will on top of already record breaking plans. This should bring some relief to the overmanned FO side.

My thinking is that if the company truly wanted this level of manning, we would have seen way more upgrades, so that premium flying would be equally rare in either seat. However, what is happening is premium is still happening on the Captain side while the company carries all it's "extra" pilot as FOs. Look at the awards going into the holidays, lots of premium/VPF/JA for Captains, while the FO awards are a totally different picture. This tells us it's still cheaper to award premium and JA rather than carry more Captains and "kill" premium.

So why do we have so many FOs? If the company felt they didn't need all these pilots they could stop running classes at anytime. My guess is that they are taking a long term view and considering the training center capacity, ETOPS training/HI flying, future aircraft deliveries, and a possbile pilot shortage they plan to carry some extra pilots in the short term, but keep the extra pilots as FOs since overmanning costs more then premium.

WHACKMASTER

Bull$7it. It’s not the hotel brand that’s the issue. It’s finding a hotel in an industrial park. That’s the problem...

flensr

They found a Hyatt Place but there aren't any dumpsters you have to walk past to get there.

Zard

There’s a Marriott Courtyard in Ka’awa. It’s only 25 miles from anything and takes 3 hours to get to from the airport. I’m sure we’ll be there on 12 hour overnights.

Shoots, brah!

e6bpilot

Bingo!

I think these flights are going to be crewed by a lot of junior pilots in both seats and a lot of super senior stews.
Exception of course to existing OAK non commuters. No reason for those guys not to bid etops.

Smooth at FL450

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this one should help explain why 10 year upgrades should soon/hopefully be a thing of the past

Attachment 4083

CA1900

http://www.elegante-waikiki.com/