ZapBrannigan

Eh. Call me a pessimist. We are almost 10,000 pilots. We are retiring less than 200 per year. 1000 pilots are waiting to upgrade (presumably until they can hold a line but who knows) That means for a new person to upgrade they either need about 4000 people to retire, or the seniority list to almost double.

We aren’t going to continue hiring 600-900 pilots per year indefinitely. Eventually it’ll drop when they reach the staffing they’re looking for.

I think it will be 10 years or longer for the foreseeable future.


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RJSAviator76

Zap, you sure? I thought it was 10 years to hold ATL as a plug FO and 20 years to upgrade...

ZapBrannigan

Nobody can be sure about anything. If you had told me 24 months ago that pilots with less than a year on property could hold ATL I never would’ve believed it. I admit that I tend to be a little more glass half empty but we are talking about big numbers when you get to be a pilot group of this size.

That means an upgrade either requires big growth or big retirements. I don’t see either on the horizon. And we don’t have the training float that the other airlines need to carry to inflate the numbers (due to single fleet type)

Let’s be honest with the folks that come here looking for info and not blow smoke. We are a young pilot group and just don’t have the big retirement numbers that the other airlines do.

The late 2013 hires are still 1000 numbers from the most junior Captain, and that doesn’t account for the fact that almost 1000 pilots have bypassed.


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Proximity

The whole issue is that we really can't see into the future more then a couple years.

We know from the company financials that from 2019 thru 2026 (last year we have orders) there are 366 aircraft on order including options. Historically SWA has always taken options.

I did hear somewhere else that after a certain year we can expect 10 NG aircraft retirements per year. However, the retirements will be adjusted depending on demand, I would expect in a strong economy the older NGs will stick around. In a poor economy, the NGs will likely be retired faster then ten per year to be replaced by MAXs.

We know from the "Ask Gary Series" that there are approx 50 destinations, mostly near international that network planning is interested in.

Keep in mind that we are #1 in something like 22 airports we serve. So expect to see us leverage that advantage into expanding our near international network. Case in point, CUN. If I'm counting correctly I see 16 cities that we operate CUN flights from. I expect many of our current and new international destinations to go that way, greatly increasing ASMs and daily flight totals.

Domestically the company has indicated they don't really expect to add new cities, however, there is room to add connections in our current route structure.

To summarize the post so far, there is plenty to be optimistic about. SWA went through a very stagnant period, but for the foreseeable future we can expect some growth.

How does this all fit with upgrade times? Well if we take 366 aircraft by 2026, with our current ratio of 13 pilots per aircraft, we will need 4,758 additional pilots, bring the total to 14,300. Assuming upgrade stays at 60%, jr capt would be 8580. 1877 pilots to retire between now and end of 2026 puts the most jr pilot on the list today well under 60%. On top of that, while this pilot group is young compared to American, retirements will eventually start to pick up, between 2025 and 2039 there will be 300-400 retirements per year.

Sure my assessment might to optimistic, but consider this, if we retired 122 aircraft between now and 2026, the most junior pilot today would still be right at the 60% mark, making for an 8 year upgrade.

Those hired in beginning of the current bubble are in good shape. The last AT pilot sits about 850 under the most jr capt. Once we get through the 08-10 bubble upgrade will start to drop as there were very few hires 2011-2013. In fact hiring really didn't ramp up the current levels until 2016.

Another piece of the puzzle will be the ETOPS flying. After looking at the ETOPS presentation, I expect the ETOPS flying to go very junior. The combination of seatlocks, trips that will start as AM and go PM, and locations that are prohibitively expensive to live in likely means that upgrade to an EGB will sit 9-12 months more junior then a domestic bid group.

Even with the the current over staffing on the FO side, we haven't seen much change in jr capt seniority, suggesting that senior FO is such a good gig that even lack of OT won't move many of the 1000 bypassers to bid to the left seat. The EBG flying will likely go even more junior then 60% as those bases start to expand.

The next couple years will be very interesting. In 2019 it is clear the company will need finally start to equalize the balance between CA/FO, with more CA upgrades planned the FO hires at this time. Looking a few more years in the future, we might see some recruiting issues as upgrade at legacies on similar equipment drops way below what we will be able to offer even under the most optimistic scenario, coupled with the lack of fleet variety and no regional partners to draw from. Legacy airlines will likely face their own recruiting issues and may implement measures similar to what the regionals have done. Likely the lower part of the FO list will be eyeing the legacies as they did in pre 9/11 and pre contract 2016.

So overall I am optimistic. I was lucky enough to be hired near the beginning of the current bubble and chose to stay over other opportunities. I'm hoping I made the right choice, but I do expect some interesting times ahead.

at6d

I was hired near the end of 2015.

According to myseniority.com , there are just over 1000 FO’s senior to me that can hold captain.

I am just over 1600 numbers from the junior captain.

In the next five years, 887 pilots senior to me will retire.

An FO in my seniority (finishing 3rd year) can currently hold all domiciles, and at 50-60% seniority except MCO (75%) and ATL (85%).

PowerShift

How many FO’s will not upgrade? Age, comfy lifestyle, don’t want to.

Proximity

I had a theory that when open time for FO dried up, upgrade would go more senior. However, that did not occur, proving that senior FO is a really good gig.



The open time situation should improve for FOs next summer as upgrades catch up, and junior captain will likely be even less attractive if it means getting forced in an ETOPS bid group and being seat locked into non-commutable trips for 6 months.



So going forward I predict the percentage of bypassers to increase.

RJSAviator76

Better question would be what percentage of FO’s won’t upgrade right away.

How many east coast senior FOs would commute to LAX given what those trips will look like? All trips starting AM’s turning into PM’s, and then you’re locked in it for 6 months. I’m willing to bet OAK ETOPS is gonna be way more senior than LAX, so stands to reason that LAX will be quite a bit more junior than OAK.

We’ll see...

Cysco4120

I thought I would throw my thoughts out there. They really don’t mean anything just my perspective. I was hired June 2008 and could have held CA in OAK right at the 10 year mark. I believe 4 guys maybe 5 took the upgrade and the rest of my class myself included are bypassing. Here are a few reasons why.

Being hired in 2008 was painful the first 5 years. I had around 170 pilots below me the first two years. There was no movement at all. Depending on domicile some spent between 2 and 3 years on reserve. My point is that it is finally nice to have some seniority. Most do not want to give that up to commute to reserve in OAK. Many are waiting to be able to hold a line. I’m on 11th year pay and I think 12th year FO in 2020 when converted to hourly is around $193 hour. So just flying your Tues through Thurs line is a pretty good gig. And in MDW I can usually get a line with 2 or 3 trips commutable on both ends. Open time means nothing to me. I am so glad we are not where we were a couple years ago with constant extensions and JA’s.

I’m still only around 25% in MDW and 15% in DEN after 10 years. Some of those senior FO’s in MDW could hold pretty descent lines as CA’s but are just in no hurry. Some have businesses on the side (I have a farm) and the flexibility seniority provides is hard to give up.

I do think LAX will be very junior in both seats. I don’t see it being a commuter friendly base with hotel prices and I thought the union put something out saying only 150 pilots lived in the “area”.

Lance Captain is also something to figure in. Since you can fly unlimited CA trips for one year while bidding as an FO that can make it hard to figure. The funny thing there is that you can typically hold CA way before you can hold lance. In MDW junior lance was around #83000 and junior CA is around #89500.

I think it boils down to this. There will be a big difference between holding bottom CA on reserve or CA as a line holder especially in different bases. If you are willing to commute to reserve anywhere the number will keep coming down. But many will continue to pile in on top as there seniority gets better on the CA list. My plan is to wait until spring 2020 unless I could hold a line in DEN or MDW this coming year with the 600 upgrades. The other catch is I really don’t want to go to training May through October because of the increased farm work. Many don’t want to upgrade in the summer. That is why CA went so junior this summer and this time of year the awards are more senior.

Anyway sorry for the long winded babbling I just had some time and thought I would pass along my thoughts. In the end there is just no way to accurately predict the numbers. Way to many factors. Just enjoy all the hiring and the climb up the list.

ZapBrannigan

Good article that discusses why some choose to delay upgrade.

https://airfactsjournal.com/2018/08/chasing-the-rabbit/


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