Upgrade times
10-07-2018, 08:10 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,721
Upgrade will continue to run between 9-10 years for the foreseeable future. The other X Factor to upgrade predicitions are the economy and future M&A events. The former seems fairly stable for the foreseeable future, the latter seems much more likely in the next 2-3 years. Once that happens, you’re at the mercy of how the SLI is determined between the two merging carriers. IOW, upgrade predictions are just that, predictions, and a constantly moving target.
If we do merge with anyone, it will be a fringe player 737 operator like Sun Country. They have pretty much put up a for sale sign by flying a lot of the same scheduled routes we do in the same equipment.
That being said, the next merger will come after the next economic downturn when companies are on the ropes. Right now, airline stocks are still doing very well despite the price of fuel. Southwest has the size and free cash advantage to wait out the market and buy cheap.
I am a big believer in worrying about the things I can control. A merger event is definitely not one of them. I also just don’t see it happening during a period of time when all airlines are still rolling in profits.
10-07-2018, 12:38 PM
#12
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
This is true, and a real problem as far as flexibility. I have a head cold and gave away a trip so as not to burn sick time. But as I look later in the month for things to pick up to make up for what I’ve lost, there is virtually nothing in give away, even on the weekends!
Gonna be a lean paycheck.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
10-07-2018, 02:50 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Posts: 282
If we do merge with anyone, it will be a fringe player 737 operator like Sun Country. They have pretty much put up a for sale sign by flying a lot of the same scheduled routes we do in the same equipment.
That being said, the next merger will come after the next economic downturn when companies are on the ropes. Right now, airline stocks are still doing very well despite the price of fuel. Southwest has the size and free cash advantage to wait out the market and buy cheap.
I am a big believer in worrying about the things I can control. A merger event is definitely not one of them. I also just don’t see it happening during a period of time when all airlines are still rolling in profits.
That being said, the next merger will come after the next economic downturn when companies are on the ropes. Right now, airline stocks are still doing very well despite the price of fuel. Southwest has the size and free cash advantage to wait out the market and buy cheap.
I am a big believer in worrying about the things I can control. A merger event is definitely not one of them. I also just don’t see it happening during a period of time when all airlines are still rolling in profits.
10-08-2018, 07:04 AM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Position: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.
Posts: 6,831
Sun Country is a small fringe player that brings nothing to the table that we don’t already do. GK is a big game hunter, it will most likely either be Alaska or JetBlue. I do agree that the company will probably wait for the next economic downturn before pulling the trigger on an M&A again though.
GK has said that he wouldn’t be interested in acquiring another carrier unless they have something that SWA can’t get on our own. Then again he’s told several lies in the past so there’s that....
10-08-2018, 07:33 AM
#15
More Cowbell!!!
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Position: Spreading the LUV from the "Write" seat!!!
Posts: 346
10-08-2018, 09:51 AM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 232
I think Hawaiian Airlines will be the next M/A, if it happens. SWA likes to own a market. They have been up and down financially and the next down turn for them I can see SWA offering 19$ tickets until a deal is struck. I don’t think that is the long game, but it may turn into low hanging fruit that is too good to pass on.
10-08-2018, 12:33 PM
#19
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,796
I think Hawaiian Airlines will be the next M/A, if it happens. SWA likes to own a market. They have been up and down financially and the next down turn for them I can see SWA offering 19$ tickets until a deal is struck. I don’t think that is the long game, but it may turn into low hanging fruit that is too good to pass on.
10-09-2018, 03:34 PM
#20
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,356
FTFY: But not to worry... we'll staple the pilots...
Have to admit, has a familiar ring to it.
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