Proximity

If you're just going for SWA, I wouldn't leave your job in your situation.

There do call corporate pilots...make sure everything is good in pilot credentials.

Zini

You are contacted via email, and are then directed to check pilotcredentials for further information (choosing interview date/time etc)

NikeBuddy

Latest seniority list just topped 9,000 pilots. Will have over 10,000 by the end of next year. Pretty wild.

Ihateusernames

Was told by a person in the know today there are about 8,300 applications on file. He also said about 70% (if I remember correctly) of those who go to job fair thing will get interviewed. Gary told chief pilots at a meeting today that we could have around 12,000 pilots over next 5 years (or some time like that). Just hit 9000 pilots this week. Fwiw


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

RJSAviator76

Accounting for age 65 retirements and using 12,000 pilots as a benchmark, that works out to hiring approximately 720 pilots per year.

at6d

Which is on par with everything they've said regarding hiring numbers the last two years.

Proximity

Based on those numbers, pilots hired in the front of the wave, 2014-2016 could be looking at 6-7 year upgrade, maybe even quicker for those hired later.

Then around 2022 the retirements pick up. Those getting on now are really in a good spot if the rumors hold.

ZapBrannigan

How do you figure? I was a 2014. If I go into myseniority.com and “artificially” adjust the growth percentage to yield a 12,000 pilot group, it shows me hitting 56% on the seniority list around mid 2023. That’s 9-10 years. If the group is only 10,000 or 11,000 pilots it’s significantly longer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

RJSAviator76

The plug captains are around 61% on seniority list. 56% implies you’re bypassing.

I use 60% as a gauge for the earliest upgrade.

Proximity

I'm doing my math on a napkin. Most junior captain today, 60-61%. Jan 16 hire is around 77xx. Retirements between now and Dec 2022, 620. If the list is 12,000 pilots by 2022, that puts that pilot just under 60% in 7 years. That's without any medical outs, attrition, or early retirements. Also, hiring forecasts here are notoriously conservative since I've been here.

Looking at 2014, unfortunately the big hiring didn't start until 2016+ onwards, so they went though 1-2 years of slow growth before things took off. For Zap and their cohort, their first opportunity to upgrade will come just before the 2016s hires, who will have been on property for two less years. That's not as bad as being the first pilot on the list after the merger thou, they had the worst luck.

Also, as we all know, anything could happen between now and 2022. I just have to go by the 12,000 by 2022 which I've heard many times now.