Career Earnings
11-16-2017, 12:38 PM
#72
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,721
I hear a lot of merger talk around here and I don’t buy it. Airlines are way too expensive right now. AirTran was a bargain. Look at the market cap on Spirit and Frontier and add a premium on top of that. Do you really think swa would pay that? No way.
They would rather coexist and carve out their market share by competing on product and being the “anti-Spirit” by not nickel and diming.
They would rather coexist and carve out their market share by competing on product and being the “anti-Spirit” by not nickel and diming.
11-16-2017, 01:52 PM
#73
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 163
We have largely stopped bleeding new hire FOs according to the union blast and a personal conversation with a rep who had they numbers. There are still some making lateral moves to better situations, but it isn’t like during 2016.
Look, I love the optimism, but I am a realist. This hiring pace isn’t sustainable. Gary Kelly and Southwest like to position themselves to make money in the boom times and pull back and survive the bust times. The bust is coming. Anyone who reads deeper than USA Today on the economy knows it. We are in an unprecedented bull market that is being propped up by low interest rates and optimism. We have low cost carriers nipping at our heels and moving in to our territory. There are huge headwinds ahead. Thankfully, this company is actually worried about that and is well positioned to handle it, but it will have an effect on this pilot group.
The training center always inflates the numbers to create optimism and feed the rumor mill. I get it, I have bought into it too. Not any more. Take a look at the industry over boom and bust cycles, and even SWA. Zap and I got hired right after AirTran started classes. Do you think we saw a lot of movement in the next two years? I sat at 98 percent system seniority the whole time.
As for my cyphering to figure out my upgrade date, I used myseniority (thanks to the dude who runs that joint) and plugged in 4 percent growth a year, which is a fairly realistic average. Shockingly, it came out to right around 10 years, maybe a little less if I take first available (which I won’t).
Look, I love the optimism, but I am a realist. This hiring pace isn’t sustainable. Gary Kelly and Southwest like to position themselves to make money in the boom times and pull back and survive the bust times. The bust is coming. Anyone who reads deeper than USA Today on the economy knows it. We are in an unprecedented bull market that is being propped up by low interest rates and optimism. We have low cost carriers nipping at our heels and moving in to our territory. There are huge headwinds ahead. Thankfully, this company is actually worried about that and is well positioned to handle it, but it will have an effect on this pilot group.
The training center always inflates the numbers to create optimism and feed the rumor mill. I get it, I have bought into it too. Not any more. Take a look at the industry over boom and bust cycles, and even SWA. Zap and I got hired right after AirTran started classes. Do you think we saw a lot of movement in the next two years? I sat at 98 percent system seniority the whole time.
As for my cyphering to figure out my upgrade date, I used myseniority (thanks to the dude who runs that joint) and plugged in 4 percent growth a year, which is a fairly realistic average. Shockingly, it came out to right around 10 years, maybe a little less if I take first available (which I won’t).
11-16-2017, 02:38 PM
#74
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,796
Speaking of training centers, any guesses on why we dropped 150 million on a new training center and all these additional sim bays?
Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??!
Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??!
11-16-2017, 05:00 PM
#76
Furloughed Again?!
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: Boeing 737
Posts: 4,804
Speaking of training centers, any guesses on why we dropped 150 million on a new training center and all these additional sim bays?
Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??!
Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??!
That is the one thing that has me questioning my usual pessimism.
But I agree that we are in a bubble. My concern is that we may be going down the path of the 1990s legacy “hire till you furlough, then furlough till you hire” model. A lot of AirTran folks at headquarters now, and we should remember that in October of 1998 AirTran is the company that thought that a 4 month furlough was a smart financial decision...
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11-16-2017, 05:39 PM
#77
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,272
I hear a lot of merger talk around here and I don’t buy it. Airlines are way too expensive right now. AirTran was a bargain. Look at the market cap on Spirit and Frontier and add a premium on top of that. Do you really think swa would pay that? No way.
They would rather coexist and carve out their market share by competing on product and being the “anti-Spirit” by not nickel and diming.
They would rather coexist and carve out their market share by competing on product and being the “anti-Spirit” by not nickel and diming.
Pretty cheap actually for a carrier making $350m a yr in profit with 20% annual growth.
Frontier isn't traded they are a private company. No market cap.
11-16-2017, 05:49 PM
#78
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 163
Speaking of training centers, any guesses on why we dropped 150 million on a new training center and all these additional sim bays?
Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??!
Surely the bean counters at this airline are some of the stingiest people alive! I mean who the hell removes cockpit window shades in the interests of saving money and then turns around and spends 150 million on a new training center??!
11-16-2017, 06:10 PM
#79
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2012
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 508
Career Earnings
This place is slowly devolving towards Flightinfo.com. Sad.
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11-16-2017, 06:36 PM
#80
At your mom's house
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: cpt 737
Posts: 2,834
I thought the reason for the new training center is that it's category 5 tornado rated. Also they were putting a backup NOC in there for the same reason. I think they saw that a big tornado could shut down the whole airline permanently.
Rumor is they're building yet another NOC 100 miles away for the same reason.
As to the 6 empty bay.... I put a beer on 777 or 797
Rumor is they're building yet another NOC 100 miles away for the same reason.
As to the 6 empty bay.... I put a beer on 777 or 797
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