Proximity

I think it's almost a cult thing here to be really pessimistic about upgrades. I get it, after the 2008 recession and the AT merger, movement slowed way down. There is a cohort of FOs who are on the MSL right after the last merger pilot who experienced very slow growth and will unfortunately have long upgrades.

However, for those hired in the current boom, I think there is reason to be optimistic. Things are happening here. SWA has had 700ish airplanes for as long as anyone can seem to remember. However, next year we should have 50 more airframes. Additionally the new training center also suggests expansion.

If they continue to hire 750+ each year, the upgrade time will have to drop. From now until end of 2022, there are 787 retirements. If we do go to 12,000 pilots, anyone under 8000 today on the MSL could have have a opportunity to upgrade by then. Starting in 2023 retirements starting increasing, creating additional movement.

I'm going to be optimistic and predict by 2022-2023 upgrade time will be more like 6-7 years then 10 years.

WHACKMASTER

Bahahahaha. Someone from management actually verbalized the Hawaiian/Pacific part or the 12K part?

Beans

I know haha. So SW wants 12k total in the next 5 years and United and Delta wants 1k-1.2k each year for the next 5-7 years. AA wants 1k a year. FedEx wants 500 a year, UPS 300 a year. Have we not learned our lesson about this type of stuff. A market down turn which is inevetable will stagnate the oversaturated (by that time) airline industry. Indigo just ordered 450 airplanes of which 150ish will go to Frontier. Does anyone besides myself see a bubble occuring. Every one is trying to outgrow the competition and the ULCC are making a huge push with massive AC orders as they gobble market share. Dont get me wrong im all for optimism, but realistic optimism. Im with the 10 year updrade guess crowd and thats assuming you will take reserve in a Jr base!

Beans

The only reason they would go around blabbing this is to keep people from bailing like they have been doing for the last 2 years. I personally know around 15 guys with more than 3 years of seniority that have left in the last year. We are loosing around 15% of new hires a year. Thats what they want to stop.

flyguy81

According to the union blast we're not. Only 32 probies have left in the last year. That's around 4% loss of new hires.

e6bpilot

We have largely stopped bleeding new hire FOs according to the union blast and a personal conversation with a rep who had they numbers. There are still some making lateral moves to better situations, but it isn’t like during 2016.
Look, I love the optimism, but I am a realist. This hiring pace isn’t sustainable. Gary Kelly and Southwest like to position themselves to make money in the boom times and pull back and survive the bust times. The bust is coming. Anyone who reads deeper than USA Today on the economy knows it. We are in an unprecedented bull market that is being propped up by low interest rates and optimism. We have low cost carriers nipping at our heels and moving in to our territory. There are huge headwinds ahead. Thankfully, this company is actually worried about that and is well positioned to handle it, but it will have an effect on this pilot group.
The training center always inflates the numbers to create optimism and feed the rumor mill. I get it, I have bought into it too. Not any more. Take a look at the industry over boom and bust cycles, and even SWA. Zap and I got hired right after AirTran started classes. Do you think we saw a lot of movement in the next two years? I sat at 98 percent system seniority the whole time.
As for my cyphering to figure out my upgrade date, I used myseniority (thanks to the dude who runs that joint) and plugged in 4 percent growth a year, which is a fairly realistic average. Shockingly, it came out to right around 10 years, maybe a little less if I take first available (which I won’t).

RJSAviator76

For those of us hired in 2016, the movement has been crazy... January 2016 hire is now sitting at 85% system seniority. Last class of 2016 plug, still on probation, is at 91% system seniority.

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the end...


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WHACKMASTER

Downturn in the economy and SWA buying Frontier or Spirit.

RJSAviator76

What, no Hawaiian?

WHACKMASTER

Not seeing that, but wth do I know?