dash8driver

Rocky did say 10,000 is what they’re shooting for on interview day, FWIW

bitatasg

Have ya’ll seen the new training center? The place is incredible and huge. 12,000 pilots is a conservative estimate.

flysocal77

I agree this growth won’t last forever but 12K Pilots in the next 4-5 won’t surprise me. This has been suggested be upper management a couple times. The key is organic growth, beat up Hawaiian for a while, wait for the next economic downturn and buy them. Then take over the pacific.

RJSAviator76

Using the 60% on the master seniority list as a rough estimate, that'd put those of us hired in 2014-current timeframe into roughly a 6-year upgrade window assuming one would want the first possible upgrade.

Our retirements start their upward spike in 2023. However, lots can change between now and then, including raising the retirement age yet again.

ZapBrannigan

We are at year 4 and coming up on 80%. You’re anticipating another 20%-25% movement in just 2 years?

I’m projecting right at 10 years unless they raise the retirement age again or there’s another merger.


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e6bpilot

Your math checks with mine too. 10 year upgrade plus or minus 18 months.

RJSAviator76

I keep hearing the number 12,000 pilots on the property by 2022, so let's go with that. Using SWAPA's seniority sneak peak during that timeframe, we'll have roughly 600 pilots retire just from Age 65.

Rough numbers... we have 9000 pilots on the seniority list. To reach 12,000 by 2022 and accounting only for mandatory retirements, we need to hire roughly 3,600 pilots to reach that number. Spread over the next 4 years, that's roughly 900 new pilots per year.

So at this point on Dec 31, 2021, where do you fall on the seniority list? Early 2016 hires would fall into the 59-61% range in 6 years, and that's currently junior captain.

As you say, another merger or Age 67 or other factors could shift that dramatically... but if we could accurately predict such events, I know I'd be a very rich man playing with stock options.

Zap and e6, how do you come up with 10 years?

PropCop

Dash,

On my interview day, Rocky stated 12,000 was the goal within about 5 years.....

at6d

I think the ten years number is the current conservative guess based on current standings. Every “junior” captain I’ve flown with has upgraded at ten years.

Will it come down? Sure. How soon? How much? Nobody can answer that with a solid number.

I’m planning ten years because that’s still a solid estimate based on real numbers.

flyguy81

Fwiw...at exactly 2 yrs on property I’m at 85%. I’ll prob defer until I can drive to work. No desire to commute even for the pay raise...I’d rather sit rsv at home.

Part of the reason it’s 10 yrs now is you had no real hiring for 5 years and a bunch of FO’s with similar seniority thrown together due to the merger. Once we get past the 2008 hires, it’ll drop pretty rapidly assuming retirement age doesn’t move and hiring keeps up.