rcfd13

The class sizes from 2014 on have been 50-80 per month and right now they're only upgrading 40 per month. Back in 2012 and 2013 class sizes were smaller. I could be wrong but I'm not sure upgrade times will drop much lower when new hire class sizes have been so large for the last couple of years. At 40 per month upgrades the upgrade time would only about hold steady, maybe even rise.

nopantsILS

I think what you say is true in regards to class sizes. But think about all the bypasses to get to this point. I don't think that's going to stop, especially with DTW opening. many of the 2013 FO's were hired for the bro (west coast people) probably one in 4 has an "any" upgrade bid in.

Crazy Canuck

Haha. I love SkyWest. I remember when I arrived upgrade was at 7 years and everyone was fighting over whether people should go chase the "quick upgrade." Now the upgrade has finally dropped below 3 years and everyone is arguing that it doesn't mean anything.

Leroy Smith

How many FOs on the list right now?? My WAG would be around 2000. How much growth has there been in the last 2-3 years? How much more actual staffing growth to come?

Anyone considering upgrade times as a determiner of whether to go to SKW or anywhere else - remember that every single one of the FOs on property will have the opportunity to upgrade before a new hire (barring not meeting upgrade requirements). And all future upgrades will be contingent on the ability to hire an adequate number of new FOs to replace those who upgrade. Can SKW hire that many people in 2 years to get today's newhire upgraded?? That's a lot of stars that would need to align for a new hire today to upgrade quickly. I suppose they can continue to cannibalize the XJT side for a while longer, but still. A little math and due-diligence can go a long way when making career decisions.

rickair7777

There are normally more CA's than FO's on the list, so maybe 1700-ish FO's.

Some significant number will bypass upgrade, some will leave for greener pastures without upgrading. So realistically a new hire will have to wait for about 1000+ upgrades, not 2000.

rcfd13

Attrition has been higher on the FO side than the Captain side nearly every month for the last 4 years. I only remember one or two months where more captains left than FOs.

JB22

You know things are bad here when people are leaving for Atlas and Kalitta.

Desperate times. I won't be going there.

Blackwing

FWIW, l've got about 600 junior to me after 6 months on property. So yeah, hiring is on track to support a 2 yr upgrade.

Crazy Canuck

That's not what you said 2 months ago!

"Can't wait to go to atlas and get my time and get out."

But yeah, going to a company that flies 767, 747s around the world and pays 3x better with better benefits is a bad move.

Cmon dude! I like your trolls. They're funny! And they drive this board into a frenzy! step your game back up! It's been weak sauce lately

JB22

I did say that a few months ago. Thanks for paying attention. But a few months ago I was looking at atlas as a stepping stone. Now they are having their problems and it's not worth it anymore. It's become a giant s###storm over there with people looking to get out asap. Can't pay me enough to put up with that garbage. People I heard of who went recently already regretting it. Flying bigger jets is no good if it's with a third tier carrier who expects me to be away 17 days in a row. I'd rather go to allegiant.