Would Skywest Sell ExpressJet?
03-21-2014, 08:26 PM
#71
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: emb-145 ca
Posts: 212
I do not see a merger happening between EV and OO. It would be the fastest way to shed chunks of EV's cost structure, but it could raise costs at OO. If Skywest Holdings thought it was a good idea, they would have broached it on the conference call. Wall Street loves the word "merger".
"This is when everyone is supposed to clap!"
03-22-2014, 07:15 AM
#72
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: EMB 145 CPT
Posts: 2,934
Quote:
Originally Posted by newarkblows
I think Skywest will aggressively renegotiate the CPA with United. United holds the upper hand and Skywest is stuck with a TPA (with the pilots) and CPA with United. The transfer and process agreement with XJT will be renegotiated (try to regain pilot trust but with fences) to transfer the 145xr's (maybe a handful of lr's) over to OO with pilots and seniority. To subvert the TPA would be too costly and the remaining pilots that wouldn't be transferred would just stop showing up to work so this is really the only option. They will shrink the XJT operation, shrink the OO CRJ side to staff 175's, and about 200 50 seaters will remain between both the OO crj and erj side. Losing 200-240 50 seaters spread out over the next two years with 100 175's coming on. 5 year gradual wind down on the remaining 50 seaters to end with 125 airframes for UAL.
Who knows what will happen with ALPA but they either need to shrink the ERJ side drastically (United wont currently allow it) or start righting the ship. UAL prefers the ERJ over the CRJ but that could change.
There wont' be any pilots from Expressjet going on to Skywest's property anytime in the next 1000 years. Period. Get over it.
Originally Posted by newarkblows
I think Skywest will aggressively renegotiate the CPA with United. United holds the upper hand and Skywest is stuck with a TPA (with the pilots) and CPA with United. The transfer and process agreement with XJT will be renegotiated (try to regain pilot trust but with fences) to transfer the 145xr's (maybe a handful of lr's) over to OO with pilots and seniority. To subvert the TPA would be too costly and the remaining pilots that wouldn't be transferred would just stop showing up to work so this is really the only option. They will shrink the XJT operation, shrink the OO CRJ side to staff 175's, and about 200 50 seaters will remain between both the OO crj and erj side. Losing 200-240 50 seaters spread out over the next two years with 100 175's coming on. 5 year gradual wind down on the remaining 50 seaters to end with 125 airframes for UAL.
Who knows what will happen with ALPA but they either need to shrink the ERJ side drastically (United wont currently allow it) or start righting the ship. UAL prefers the ERJ over the CRJ but that could change.
There wont' be any pilots from Expressjet going on to Skywest's property anytime in the next 1000 years. Period. Get over it.
03-22-2014, 07:33 AM
#73
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Capt
Posts: 611
And to your second point, I think the only real leverage SkyWest pilots have is the union card. Make no mistake it is something OO management wants to avoid and placates us by small gains and promises. However, the threat of organizing is lessened when they see how utterly impotent regional unions are. The fear isn't unions will raise pilot pay or benefits. The threat is they will gum up the operation, slow everything down and add a layer between the two stake holder. They do not fear ALPA, or give any real weight to your legal authority to force/disrupt a merger. What they fear is your ability to destroy yourself along with thousands of other peoples livelihoods and our ability to one day do the same.
03-23-2014, 05:56 AM
#74
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,951
I am sure you can call BS, text BS, e-mail BS, or find a BS delivery method suitable for you. The vehicle I would use is contract monetization funding, which is fairly straightforward once you hammer out the deal. It is irrelevant whether I tip my hand or not because no one wants a deal in the way I would structure it. The biggest thing in business is to find out what you don't know in order to minimize the variables.
You can't go out on the street and pick up 4,600 pilots. I would pick up EV and convert most of the CPA flying to pro-rate flying. Once it is pro-rate, EV no longer has to compete for its work. The guaranteed FFD agreement would change to a minimum revenue guarantee with both DL and UA. The MRG could specify the minimum number of flights in a market. Then, UA could use OO to backfill some of the flying on routes that EV would not cover.
I believe that UA would convert the CPA if all of the CoEx ERJs were purchased and taken off their balance sheet. DL may do the same if their financed CR2s were purchased. I would D check and refurbish some of the fleet and eventually trade everything for CR9s after the CRJs and ERJs wear out.
I believe that UA would convert the CPA if all of the CoEx ERJs were purchased and taken off their balance sheet. DL may do the same if their financed CR2s were purchased. I would D check and refurbish some of the fleet and eventually trade everything for CR9s after the CRJs and ERJs wear out.
Are you sure that DL didn't transfer those leases to SKYW when they purchased EV? My understanding is that all the DL owned CRJ2s have already been parked. SKYW controls the rest, and are being removed as their CPAs expire. The second half of that... most of the EV CRJ2s are reaching their cycle limits. Your D Check and refurbish strategy would be a significant investment for a plane no one is likely to buy from you. So unless you plan to actually fly the CRJ2 in your at risk plan, you're extremely unlikely to recoup your refurbishment investment. Not sure where you're going to get CRJ9 delivery slots since they're all spoken for many years in advance due to DALs extensive orders. Another thing you don't seem to have accounted for is that the scope sections of both UA and DL pilots PWAs explicitly prohibits the domestic codeshare you envision. So unless you're going to go the Independence Air route and operate a stand alone airline on a CRJ2 backbone (though they failed due to the high cost structure), your plan is DOA. You won't be feeding DL or DA passengers. See, you haven't done any research. Which is why this is BS.
Bahahahahahaha!!!!!!! Even Carl Ichan knows that's not true. You're just an internet troll. My money is that you're writing an ERAU graduate school paper on airline mergers and this trolling is fodder for you. Go away troll.
03-23-2014, 07:40 AM
#75
On Reserve
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 23
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
No, you can't go out on the street and find 4600 pilots. But you'll probably have to. Good luck doing it, because I doubt many here would take the career risks associated with your scheme. This has already been done and failed (ACA/Independence Air). Who wants to work at an independent regional, run by an aloof corporate raider, with no mainline flight benefits, subpar pay, and a very uncertain future. XJT is a very experienced pilot group, and most would bolt if you tried this.
In addition, what major carrier's code did DH use for FlyI?
By the way, DH was killed by overcapacity, not costs. They provided service well beyond what most of the underlying markets could supply. The fare war didn't help.
OO and TSA are flying at-risk in the EXACT SAME MANNER I propose to do with ExpressJet. OO flies 70 aircraft at risk right now. They claim that they are not flying that way against their will. Are you saying they are lying?
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
Are you sure that DL didn't transfer those leases to SKYW when they purchased EV? My understanding is that all the DL owned CRJ2s have already been parked. SKYW controls the rest, and are being removed as their CPAs expire. The second half of that... most of the EV CRJ2s are reaching their cycle limits. Your D Check and refurbish strategy would be a significant investment for a plane no one is likely to buy from you. So unless you plan to actually fly the CRJ2 in your at risk plan, you're extremely unlikely to recoup your refurbishment investment.
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
Not sure where you're going to get CRJ9 delivery slots since they're all spoken for many years in advance due to DALs extensive orders.
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
Another thing you don't seem to have accounted for is that the scope sections of both UA and DL pilots PWAs explicitly prohibits the domestic codeshare you envision. So unless you're going to go the Independence Air route and operate a stand alone airline on a CRJ2 backbone (though they failed due to the high cost structure), your plan is DOA. You won't be feeding DL or DA passengers. See, you haven't done any research. Which is why this is BS.
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
Bahahahahahaha!!!!!!! Even Carl Ichan knows that's not true. You're just an internet troll. My money is that you're writing an ERAU graduate school paper on airline mergers and this trolling is fodder for you. Go away troll.
Last edited by CRJ100; 03-23-2014 at 07:41 AM. Reason: spelling error
03-24-2014, 03:42 AM
#78
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,951
Good luck with your scheme CRJ100 (interesting choice btw). Your fear to post your identity says it all, because as Redbird said, everyone here already knows who I am. If you actually make it past the front door with this, I suspect you'll find out who I am soon enough. I'm someone who can either get the pilot group on board, or make sure you fail miserably. And so far, I'm unimpressed.
03-24-2014, 07:58 AM
#79
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2011
Posts: 495
Good luck with your scheme CRJ100 (interesting choice btw). Your fear to post your identity says it all, because as Redbird said, everyone here already knows who I am. If you actually make it past the front door with this, I suspect you'll find out who I am soon enough. I'm someone who can either get the pilot group on board, or make sure you fail miserably. And so far, I'm unimpressed.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
