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Old 03-24-2014, 01:55 PM
  #91  
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You dodged it Bucking Bar, would you be willing to see a ASA (XJT) acquired by DAL and witness a Pinndeavor part 2 as far as what it's done to this career?
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Old 03-24-2014, 02:04 PM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by Hugh Jorgan
ASA contract says that whenever Skywest transfers an rj to Skywest from ASA, 5 crews must go with them after the first transfer. Hey Jerry, go ahead and transfer all of them...... I will gladly jump west and play nice out there. This merger doesn't sound really promising. What are SAPA dues?
SkyWest pilots sapa dues are 0% ;-) company funded...
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Old 03-24-2014, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Hugh Jorgan
ASA contract says that whenever Skywest transfers an rj to Skywest from ASA, 5 crews must go with them after the first transfer. Hey Jerry, go ahead and transfer all of them...... I will gladly jump west and play nice out there. This merger doesn't sound really promising. What are SAPA dues?

Aircraft come off lease, SkyWest starts a new lease, no pilots come with them. The contract can't cover everything. Inc left themselves a loophole.
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Old 03-24-2014, 03:33 PM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by NVUS
Aircraft come off lease, SkyWest starts a new lease, no pilots come with them. The contract can't cover everything. Inc left themselves a loophole.
There's always a fricken loophole
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Old 03-24-2014, 04:09 PM
  #95  
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Did Pinnacle at least get better flight passes back (date of hire) on Delta after they bought them?
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Old 03-24-2014, 04:21 PM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by Black Meatball
Did Pinnacle at least get better flight passes back (date of hire) on Delta after they bought them?
H$ll no. This is frikken Delta you're talking about.
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:10 PM
  #97  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
CRJ100,

Have to say, yours' are interesting posts. But, I have to ask, how would you attract capital to this venture and exit? IPO?
Contract monetization financing. When the capacity purchase agreement value is converted into a minimum revenue guarantee, an investment bank can offer financing based on the value of that guarantee. The unprofitable UA contract (for example) could be converted into guaranteed revenue from UA. This provides UA with an incentive to not route pax away from these planes. It provides the investment bank with a revenue stream to offer financing. It also gets 200+ regional aircraft off of UA's balance sheet in exchange for cash. Cash is always good.


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
I would estimate, just for the chunk you seem interested in, around $500,000,000 would be needed for adequate capitalization. With the sort of risk premium investors like myself are used to getting (and admittedly I do not play on this level, you're talking a cost of capital around 25% ... that's some pretty frothy numbers for a business model which is getting pressed by economics on the bottom end, a looming pilot shortage and mainline partners who are squeezing their contractors harder than ever). Even Alaska airlines is probably getting out on thin ice with their model as they find themselves squeezed between Delta and American.
The IRR would be around 8-11%, which is stellar for investors in a 3% environment. I would try to keep them down to 8%.


Maybe you can elaborate on where the $25 billion or so in capex Delta (let alone United) has put into their express structures. While Delta's been willing to write off $7.5 billion or so in bankruptcy and consolidation, any future write downs would hit the reported bottom line. I'm not sure how that magic act is going to be pulled off.
Export-Import banks offer a lot of financing based on their respective country's needs. This is how some regionals are financing their new planes. I am confident that Export Development Canada can do something with regards to Bombardier equipment.


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Also, just as with the major's 10-K reports, I do not know how you break down pass through costs in your evaluation. Last year Delta reported $0.8b profit on $6.43b revenue on express for a roughly 12.5% ROR ... not bad, but who knows what lines fuel, landing fees, rents and some labor fall on.*
I would say that DL's allocations are close to what an aggressive at-risk operation could look like. DL does a fair amount of point to point and the yields on those are typically very good. I figure that an independent EV can do 5% out of the gate and 10% when the CR9s come online.


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Whoever ends up managing the express operations is going to be in a challenging environment until the likes of Atkin, Bedford and co begin acting like their business is the oligopoly it can be. Of course, the majors will react by insourcing if that happens.
I think the regionals are well aware that if they get greedy, the majors will do it themselves. I am sure Skywest is being eyed suspiciously because of the yield they are producing on the Skywest side. I am not sure if majors want regionals making a theoretical 10% margin.


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Branded operations are a non starter unless the airline refleets to something like the CSeries or 737NG. Either way, those are some expensive payments to make without any loyalty program to juice revenues.
I cannot get financing for acquiring ExpressJet if UA doesn't play ball. However, if UA and OO don't play ball, Wall Street will call for a change in management. This is why I have to be sensitive to their needs. The pressure from Wall Street will push the deal through, but I don't want anyone getting sacked for refusing a deal that cannot work for them.


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Like you, I think the Continental and Delta operations should be split and restructured. Atkin probably would have been well advised to consolidate ASA into Skywest, thus diluting the labor issues and keep the separate type specific UCAL operation. In either case, having an alter ego to whipsaw against and to firewall assets makes management sense (even if it is horrible for labor).
Atkin did the right thing structurally, but he is not getting enough savings to make the deal work. He cannot pay for the ASA acquisition without those large planes. I would support the pilots following those planes. He may have to get most of the Atlanta maintenance facilities to support that flying as well. If he can keep the profitable EV flying while giving me the rest to restructure, I think that he could be very helpful in making a transition smooth.


Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
I maintain that DCI is a core business for Delta. Last year Delta reported that DCI was .8b of it's 2.7b operating profit (roughly 30%). As we saw with Pinnacle, Delta runs out with a fire hose whenever a part of their network is threatened unexpectedly.
I think that anyone treating North American domestic flying as a loss leader should slap themselves. This is the largest single aviation market in the world.
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:19 PM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by Hugh Jorgan
ASA contract says that whenever Skywest transfers an rj to Skywest from ASA, 5 crews must go with them after the first transfer. Hey Jerry, go ahead and transfer all of them...... I will gladly jump west and play nice out there. This merger doesn't sound really promising. What are SAPA dues?
You would not go West. Those RJs are primarily based in the East. Under my plan, OO would share or takeover some EV maintenance bases in the East to support those aircraft. You would stay where you are, except you would be working for OO instead of EV at a new ATL or DTW crew base. The ideal scenario is that ALL of the large RJ pilots go with those planes without having to start over financially. I would also like for OO to do all of the flying out of EWR so that it is easier to replace their own CRJs with 2 class E75s. I am not sure I can get either to happen.
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:23 PM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by NVUS
Aircraft come off lease, SkyWest starts a new lease, no pilots come with them. The contract can't cover everything. Inc left themselves a loophole.
You are correct, but I would prefer that the pilots get the opportunity to follow the planes as long as they are willing to fly under OO terms. I am adamant about not having those aircraft on the property.
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Old 03-26-2014, 04:05 AM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by CRJ100
You would not go West. Those RJs are primarily based in the East. Under my plan, OO would share or takeover some EV maintenance bases in the East to support those aircraft. You would stay where you are, except you would be working for OO instead of EV at a new ATL or DTW crew base. The ideal scenario is that ALL of the large RJ pilots go with those planes without having to start over financially. I would also like for OO to do all of the flying out of EWR so that it is easier to replace their own CRJs with 2 class E75s. I am not sure I can get either to happen.
This is not possible with the scope and fragmentation language in the L-ASA contract. Our contract survives your fragmentation scheme, and the you would have to abide by it. OO cannot simply take over our planes and bases, this would force a union referendum under NMB rules. Now if ALPA loses that... all bets are off, but in that scenario, SKYW would be unlikely to sell because it just made the operation immensely more profitable to them.

Originally Posted by CRJ100
You are correct, but I would prefer that the pilots get the opportunity to follow the planes as long as they are willing to fly under OO terms. I am adamant about not having those aircraft on the property.
The pilots are not likely to agree to OO's terms. You have not done enough research into the labor problems occurring at ExpressJet and that is the weakness of your scheme. In our recent failed contract vote, both the company and the union told the pilots basically "vote yes or the company is shutting down". The pilots responded with an 83% no vote. That means 83% of the pilots are willing to walk away. And you think they'll play ball with you because you post a ridiculous pay scale on an anonymous message board. Ya ok.

But like I said before, good luck with your ERAU grad school paper. I hope you do well on it.
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