kfahmi

The most junior FO in PHX has a seniority number just a few numbers above 3,000. To put that in perspective, there are 3,392 pilots currently on the list, with the bottom 70 in training. Those of us just finishing training are right around 3,300.

So that's 300 from being able to hold PHX. In the past 50 days I have gone up 50 seniority numbers, so about 1 number a day. Extrapolating that, you have 10 months from hire to be able to hold PHX.

Of course, that number could change quickly as attrition either accelerates or slows. PHX could close. Martians could invade. You never know.

I personally am hoping for SFO as soon as possible, since that's where I live. Based on current trends, I estimate perhaps 5--6 months.

CloudShredder

Thanks for the info. That's the kind of thing I was curious about. Of course what is today will probably not be what it is tomorrow. The industry is an ever-changing landscape. Expect the worst, and hope for the best is about all I can do at this point.

kfahmi

Some things do turn out to be true...when I interviewed we were all told to expect ORD and MSP. And that's exactly what everyone in my new-hire class got.

DEN and COS seem attainable reasonably soon out of training. LAX and SFO, maybe 5--6 months at current rates. Forget SEA, PDX, or SLC within your first year, though. FAT is tiny, as is TUS, and SBP is a Bro-only base (and they're not ever gonna hire into the Bro again.) Not sure about PSP or IAH, but they're relatively senior.

The big ?? is the EMB-175, which now has both ORD and SFO. While the conventional wisdom has been that a lot of current guys on property won't bid the 175, when I look at the current 175 training class list, there's only one new-hire on there. Everyone else has a seniority number in the 1000s and 2000s, which tells me that yes, guys (and gals) on property are indeed bidding the 175. There are about 10 new-hires on the 175 in ORD, but only one in SFO.

Bottom line: It'll all change tomorrow.

rcfd13

Crazier things have happened. When I was a new hire the entire class before mine all got SLC when a bunch of them actually wanted ORD. Up until just a few months ago the most junior FO in SEA was a 6 year FO. Now the most junior FO is just 2.5 years.

Da40Pilot

Just curious what the current upgrade time at SkyWest is looking like for a new hire over the next couple of years?

TheFly

Most junior CA got hired in 2007. With that being said, FOs are getting picked up by majors almost as fast at CAs. Get the jet time, get in and get out. PIC at a 121 carrier isn't as cherished as it onced was a few years ago.

rcfd13

People keep saying that but I've only met two FOs total who have gone to UA, AA or DL. Both had strong family connections and one was female. That's not much compared to about 50 captains I know who have gone to majors in the past 2 years. I have yet to meet a white male FO with no family connections who has been hired without PIC.

I do know some FOs who have gone to Spirit and Virgin but to say that FOs are getting hired as quick as captains at the majors is pretty misleading unless I'm living in a cave. Can you actually back up that claim?

Da40Pilot

Hmm ok, could you please clarify this? I thought that the majors required 1000 hours or at least a substantial amount of PIC time in order for them to hire you, meaning, one must become a captain at a regional before being able to move up to the majors? I'm a newbie here - hope this doesn't come out as a stupid question...

Flip69

I agree with rcfd. Very few FOs getting on with UA, DL or AA. There are some, but most are going to Spirit, Allegiant, Virgin America. The ones that went to the legacys have some pretty good connections or fit a certain demographic that the airline likes (DL).

Check Complete

Nope, I know of 2 guys that got on with UAL, one about 10 months ago and one leaving this week. Neither had any TPIC but they both busted their ass to get the interview and are like able types. Actually I've heard having a bunch of TPIC can be a killer right now and those with a bunch are being advised to reduce the number submitted on their resume?

I think a year or two from now, if you can fog a mirror, you'll get hired at a major.

A friend in the training department at UAL said they are hiring 30 a week for the next 36 months, and then they will hire 40 a week for the next 36 months.