N53 W030

I think only for a while. Once the 365 day rule for 1000 hours kicks in under the new rest rules, they will probably encounter major problems with manning if they schedule like that when you get to about 330 - 340 days. Since there will be a 365 day "look back", the problem won't go away like it does now with the passing of the end of the year.

Grabbing some popcorn - this could be interesting to watch...

WileyTwo

This has been predicted for years. I'll believe it when I see it. The big pilot shortage. By supply and demand will I get a raise?

MatchPoint

Yes and the Age 65 rule postponed the hiring, add to that the complications caused by the ATP rule and you can see the beginning of the storm (the size of which is unknown for now). Remember that those predictions didn’t have the hiring start until 2012 and the hiring wasn’t supposed to be an all-out waterfall right away. For that you’ll have to wait about 3-5 more years.

Those who think the next 5+ years will look like the last 5+ years puzzle me because the future never repeats the immediate past, it’s actually a cycle that covers decades. Just like the 60’s then the 80’s and what was supposed to be the 00’s but will now be the 10’s, the hiring will be big.

As for your raise? Yes, this year I'm getting a 5% raise that's guaranteed. My wife’s company was far more profitable than mine and she only got 2.5%. Hard to complain when you compare things to the rest of the US.

Low Flyin

I flew with a guy in management who told me that Skywest alone will have to hire 690 pilots to properly staff itself when the new rest rules take effect

jayray2

The shortage is already here at the regional level from what I've heard. Have you talked to anyone in the last year that is involved in hiring at the regional level? From what I hear it is hard to get people to show up for interviews and even harder to get applicants to show up for class. When the rest rules take effect and the majors start hiring the regionals are going to fall apart.

clearprop

Some of regionals are not going to fall apart. The business model is not completely broken. It's evolving. As was posted earlier, the hiring cycle is starting to take form. Skywest will survive and grow. Upgrades will happen and peace shall envelope the world. All kidding aside, I'm actually optimistic about the future of this airline. Cash, economy of scale, and attitude is king.

Now back to our regularly scheduled doom and gloom discussion.....

WileyTwo

Since regionals do fifty percent of the flying, will the majors take over the regional flying that they can't do because the pilots went to fill the slots left by retirements at the majors? Or will the majors get smaller and regionals adjust to the needs of the majors.

MatchPoint

I do agree that SkyWest will survive but they will not be immune to the problems caused by the ATP rule and mainlines hiring. SKW will have a hard time filling their aircraft but not as hard of a time as 9E, CommuteAir, etc. Mark my words, SKW they will NOT be able to blink and fill a class. Also Economics of Scale actually means VERY little here, otherwise we wouldn't have lost those 12 CRJ-700's to GoJet who only has around 5% the number we do.

SKW Mgt wants mainline to start hiring to help off load our SR (expensive) pilots but they see the issues they will face and they're starting to prepare. They want to fill classes now and bloat the airline so when the hiring picks up and the ATP rule is in effect they will have a head start in dealing.

I’m pessimistically optimist when it comes to this industry. My advice to you is never feel safe cause when you do the sky will fall and although SKW will walk out the other side they will not be the same airline you see today.

coryk

Do you Skywest guys think hiring will pick up even more next year? More so than it is now?

I'm about half way to the current mins, but with the new 1500 rule I'm just expecting to build time all the way to 1500 rather than 1000. It seems like a great time to get on now, and I'm hoping I won't miss the wave next year ish.

block30

You guys lost 12 -700s to Go Jet?