SonicFlyer

https://county10.com/skywest-airline...ely-behind-us/

LizzyBorden

How did you get CEO out of that?

followingdreams

The "Pilot Shortage" was also over in early 2020 and then SKW found themselves behind the curve when hiring came back. I dont think it will be as quick of a rebound, but give it a year, people are still flying. When Boeing and Airbus start to deliver more, the majors start to digest their massive hiring over the last couple of years, retirements at the majors pick up, there will be another shortage. Add to that the amount of people who thought this would be an easy pathway to a 6 figure job who give up on it and go back to other work, not to mention the 2nd career guys who give up flying due to the risks and decide to stay in their current career, supply and demand will normalize. Supply has been low the last few years and it was great, demand has slowed this year, and it is great for the airlines that can now implement training contracts for $80k.....give it time, be patient, its a great career, if you have a tough stomach!

WhyIFly

There will never be a hiring boon like there was the last few years. That was a one time thing. Growth from here on out will be metered and controlled by the airlines. It was a free-for-all and not only a once in a lifetime event, but a once in an industry event.

followingdreams

People also said Covid was going to kill the industry for 5 years. The "hiring boom" was there BEFORE Covid, then Covid, then back to an even grester hiring boom. Will it be the same as after Covid, probably not but I could definitely see it as the same as before covid. Retirements still have not peaked, Airlines want to grow but cant due to deliveries, the question will be how many people give up on the idea of being a career pilot? How many people want to be Flight Instructing until 2500 hours especially when there will be more instructors than students? Some of them will go back to another type of job. You had a bunch of people in their late 40s- early 60s making a career out of it, people at that age who havent gotten on anywhere, will stay in their current career and give up the dream. Nobody has a crystal ball but this is how I think it will play out, at least until the next "event".

VacancyBid

2021-2023 is the high mark of airline hiring between the first coming of Orville and the second coming of Jesus. Regional captains were hired faster than they could be regenerated and that caused all sorts of chaos. There's no indication that will happen again.

The entire industry is retiring something like 200 pilots/month for the next several years. Assume military, non-121 civ and ULCC cannibalization can meet 1/3 of that demand. That leaves 1600 pilots a year that have to come from the regionals. Assume it takes 4 years to get 1000 TPIC ... you need a total regional workforce of 6400 pilots to sustainably support that supply. The numbers work. People will get hired into their dream job at 30 instead of 23. Still a good deal til the robots take over.

Antiskidinop

CEO, marketing development guy, same thing, why bother to get the credentials right?

However.
The Boeing strike will prolong things, the opportunities for low-skill pilots to skip their way quickly to a "real" airline in 6 months after getting their R-ATP are done.
People ignore that huge numbers of not-quite-65s in the anticipated retirement column over the next few years are already LTDs and not flying. Sure, they'll no longer be on the seniority list but they are already not providing any utility to their airline and won't necessarily require 1 for 1 replacement. Add in the overhiring that has occurred thanks to over-rosy growth projections and aircraft on order that won't be showing up, and the need to bring on thousands a year at legacys just went "poof". Time for the up-and-comers to readjust their career timeline expectations.

SonicFlyer

Whoops, good catch, my bad. I half-ass read the article. Forum won't let me go back and correct it. Apologies.

bluespoon

There's still going to be plenty of hiring the next decade, there are still a lot of retirements coming through 2030. But it does seem like those hired from now on will not enjoy the amazing seniority that those hired the last 5+ years will.

Excargodog

Can you cite a reference for this? What percentage of 60-65 year old pilots are on LTD and what percentage of those are still on their companies' seniority lists?

Plus, how do you account for those being hired who are already old enough that they will be adding to the retirees only five or ten years out? I don't know if it's fear of age discrimination lawsuits, a surge in retiring military getting hired, people lured back into the career by the recent hiring surge or what, but I'm seeing a fair percentage of 50+ year olds in intro classes at the legacy level. The numbers that will be retiring in five to ten years are nor static, they will continue to grow. Not everyone getting hired there is a 30 year old.