LifetimeCFI

who ****ing cares

so tired of hearing about this ****. There's gonna be a lot of guys who talk themselves out of making a jump because they wont become a 767 captain as fast as some rich *******'s kid did getting hired in 2022.

Yeah some guys got real effin' lucky. So is life. Get your apps out, get your hours and keep updating.

Khantahr

Pretty much this. Life at a legacy on day one was better than life at SkyWest after more than a decade, and even with the new regional pay rates, you'll match it by year three as a legacy FO.

ImSoSuss

Definitely the back side of the hiring wave as peak retirements have already passed and the fact that so many young people have been hired over the last few years. Unless you are really young you will never make it to towards the top of any Legacy seniority list. The other posters are also right, this should not in anyway impact your decision to move on.

And no, we will never see hiring like we did post COVID. Not in our lifetimes. People don’t realize that in the confluence of factors that caused that retirements were only a small part. Airlines way over hired in a panic and most are overstaffed at the moment. When hiring resumes, the other poster is right it will be much more metered.

One thing that rarely gets mentioned is that going from right seat from a regional directly to right seat at a Legacy is going to be much harder in the future. Not just because competitive mins have increased but there is a lot of regret right now at the Legacies because they are seeing a lot of issues with the sub two-year upgrades with these people. In other words expect TPIC to become very important again on an application.

Not trying to be negative but it is important to set realistic expectations.

LifetimeCFI

I'd wager that 4% vs 10% is probably barely registerable in terms of QoL and earning potential.

I think this stuff is overblown. I guess if you're a 38 year old mil guy thinking about whether or not you'll ever make WB CA, okay.. Maybe.. Even then, I'd still go.

The only way I won't make a legacy (or anyone else) is if they reach an age point where they tell themselves it's not worth it. For me, that might be 46+..maybe. I honestly don't know. I do expect hiring mins to drop if/when things pick back up again.. That's just the nature of supply/demand.. Will it be 800 turbine and a CJO, nah. But I don't think 1500 turbine is out of the question. It's going to depend on a number of factors.. We'll see what lies ahead.

Another counterpoint: hiring these days is very varied age wise. A typical class will have people spread from mid-upper 20s to 50+. This is going to alleviate any stagnation concerns IMO. Movement will be far more fluid than we've seen before because of this. I think anyone under the age of 45 is set up for a great airline career. Those over the age of 45 tend to just be happy to be there, so they'll be just fine.

It's still a great time to get in.

ImSoSuss

[size=0pt]Yep, the hiring mins will come down but how much is the big issue. Southwest, Jetblue, and Spirit are not hiring until at least 2026. Alaska/Hawaiian is still in limbo and right now claim to be overstaffed. Frontier and Allegiant are hiring but at smaller numbers. Cargo is not much better with Fed Ex not hiring for the foreseeable future and UPS back to Astronaut status. However at the start of 2025 all three Legacies should be hiring again and it will be interesting to see how that will shake out. I still think TPIC will be the gate with a few exceptions. [/size]