Class date without signing the contract?
07-09-2024, 08:54 AM
#1
New Hire
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jul 2024
Posts: 2
Class date without signing the contract?
Looking for insight. Are new hires who opted not to sign the contract receiving class dates or are you in limbo? I understand Skywest has 6-9 months of new hires in the hopper, wondering what timeline you could expect from a CJO to a class date without the contract? I'm in the RTP and will be approaching my hours in the upcoming months. Also guys in currently in a class, how many of your classmates signed the contract?
07-12-2024, 11:30 AM
#2
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 49
I was told by my rercruiter that she had no idea how long my wait would be by not signing. I accepted a CJO about a month ago. I got an email last week reminding me to sign the contract for a quick training date. I never intended to sign so at this point I dont expect to get a class date before I start at another regional.
07-15-2024, 03:33 AM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2021
Posts: 413
Right now, pretty much no one else is hiring. There are 1000s of young pilots in the flight school training pipeline that are working to become 121 eligable (121.167). With a dozen or so reaching this milestone every day and no one else hiring, why would SkyWest hire anyone that won't sign the contract? There is plenty of supply of pilot now. The shortage is abslutely over at this point.
The supply has caught up to demand (due to a decrease in demand and an increase in the training supply that started a couple years ago), and the stagnation has begun.
The supply has caught up to demand (due to a decrease in demand and an increase in the training supply that started a couple years ago), and the stagnation has begun.
07-15-2024, 05:09 AM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Semi-Retired...
Posts: 3,249
Right now, pretty much no one else is hiring. There are 1000s of young pilots in the flight school training pipeline that are working to become 121 eligable (121.167). With a dozen or so reaching this milestone every day and no one else hiring, why would SkyWest hire anyone that won't sign the contract? There is plenty of supply of pilot now. The shortage is abslutely over at this point.
The supply has caught up to demand (due to a decrease in demand and an increase in the training supply that started a couple years ago), and the stagnation has begun.
The supply has caught up to demand (due to a decrease in demand and an increase in the training supply that started a couple years ago), and the stagnation has begun.
CommutAir is hiring
PSA is hiring
albeit at reduced rates that are more like the early 2000's.
Skywest & Republic is you sign a training contract. So, how long do you think before the production catches up to the legacy needs and the flood gates open again. Last year was the biggest year for retirements. The mandatory retirements only drop under the 3,100 last year to about 2,950 this year. Each year for the next 10 years it drops by 50-150 a year then plateaus out. That does not include medical outs, early outs or growth.
This slowdown should only last until Boeing, Airbus and P&W get their crap in order and start delivering planes at a better rate, they were down to less than 25 a month earlier this year, and are back up to 47 currently. The backorders at all the majors caused aglut of pilots and no planes. This was aggravated by the geared engine issues grounding many of those planes. The groundings are the primary reason of the Spirit furlough. Then - absent a big recession - the hiring should get busy again.
The shotage is not over; it's just paused. There mainline retirements just peaked last year. It took from 2015 to now to peak. It's not going away overnight. Once the deliveries and engine issues are resolved it will pick back up again.
Currently 121 eligible and whats being hired are not the same. There will be competition again for the slots. Higher time, higher education, better experience will all play a role again. The employment contracts with non-competes were blocked by the FTC a few months ago. They did not say if the ruling applies to the RLA industry. There is a high likelyhood that the contracts will be ruled invalid under the FTC, and the simple legal principle of duress. Sign it or no job.
07-15-2024, 05:23 AM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2021
Posts: 413
Air Wiskey is hiring
CommutAir is hiring
PSA is hiring
albeit at reduced rates that are more like the early 2000's.
Skywest & Republic is you sign a training contract. So, how long do you think before the production catches up to the legacy needs and the flood gates open again. Last year was the biggest year for retirements. The mandatory retirements only drop under the 3,100 last year to about 2,950 this year. Each year for the next 10 years it drops by 50-150 a year then plateaus out. That does not include medical outs, early outs or growth.
This slowdown should only last until Boeing, Airbus and P&W get their crap in order and start delivering planes at a better rate, they were down to less than 25 a month earlier this year, and are back up to 47 currently. The backorders at all the majors caused aglut of pilots and no planes. This was aggravated by the geared engine issues grounding many of those planes. The groundings are the primary reason of the Spirit furlough. Then - absent a big recession - the hiring should get busy again.
The shotage is not over; it's just paused. There mainline retirements just peaked last year. It took from 2015 to now to peak. It's not going away overnight. Once the deliveries and engine issues are resolved it will pick back up again.
Currently 121 eligible and whats being hired are not the same. There will be competition again for the slots. Higher time, higher education, better experience will all play a role again. The employment contracts with non-competes were blocked by the FTC a few months ago. They did not say if the ruling applies to the RLA industry. There is a high likelyhood that the contracts will be ruled invalid under the FTC, and the simple legal principle of duress. Sign it or no job.
CommutAir is hiring
PSA is hiring
albeit at reduced rates that are more like the early 2000's.
Skywest & Republic is you sign a training contract. So, how long do you think before the production catches up to the legacy needs and the flood gates open again. Last year was the biggest year for retirements. The mandatory retirements only drop under the 3,100 last year to about 2,950 this year. Each year for the next 10 years it drops by 50-150 a year then plateaus out. That does not include medical outs, early outs or growth.
This slowdown should only last until Boeing, Airbus and P&W get their crap in order and start delivering planes at a better rate, they were down to less than 25 a month earlier this year, and are back up to 47 currently. The backorders at all the majors caused aglut of pilots and no planes. This was aggravated by the geared engine issues grounding many of those planes. The groundings are the primary reason of the Spirit furlough. Then - absent a big recession - the hiring should get busy again.
The shotage is not over; it's just paused. There mainline retirements just peaked last year. It took from 2015 to now to peak. It's not going away overnight. Once the deliveries and engine issues are resolved it will pick back up again.
Currently 121 eligible and whats being hired are not the same. There will be competition again for the slots. Higher time, higher education, better experience will all play a role again. The employment contracts with non-competes were blocked by the FTC a few months ago. They did not say if the ruling applies to the RLA industry. There is a high likelyhood that the contracts will be ruled invalid under the FTC, and the simple legal principle of duress. Sign it or no job.
I think the furloughs from the other majors and cargo ops along with the military hires will cover the majority of the mainline hires for the next bit. Let's face it, if Delta/United/American/Southwest aren't making money with every seat full, there is no way that Spirit, JetBlue, or Frontier can survive in their current form. There will be thousands of pilots cut and dumped on the street for the legacies to pick up.
By the time that things really start going again, the output in the pilot training pipeline of student pilots will be nearly double what it is right now. The experienced regional pilots will start getting hired at the legacies again, but it will never be like it has for the last few years again.
Here's another thing for you - do you think that there will be any regionals a year from now that don't have a training contract that is enforcable? Massive loans disguised as training contracts that will be due if someone leaves? That will be the new industry standard going forward.
Regional signing bonuses are almost all gone now. The few remaining airlines that are offering them will be staffed in the next 6 months and all of those bonuses will be gone. Regionals will have much better qualified pilots to start hiring (previous 91k or 135 pilots) so those straight out of flight school with 1500 hours will have a hard time getting hired at a regional again.
Even when airbus and boeing start building airplanes quickly again, Delta and United will be start parking their older aircraft. United's fleet is ridiculously old right now and nearly 1/3 will be parked in the coming years. 250 of United's airplanes will be over 30 years old before their big retirement wave really starts to hit.
07-15-2024, 05:31 AM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 2,447
I think the furloughs from the other majors and cargo ops along with the military hires will cover the majority of the mainline hires for the next bit. Let's face it, if Delta/United/American/Southwest aren't making money with every seat full, there is no way that Spirit, JetBlue, or Frontier can survive in their current form. There will be thousands of pilots cut and dumped on the street for the legacies to pick up.
By the time that things really start going again, the output in the pilot training pipeline of student pilots will be nearly double what it is right now. The experienced regional pilots will start getting hired at the legacies again, but it will never be like it has for the last few years again.
Here's another thing for you - do you think that there will be any regionals a year from now that don't have a training contract that is enforcable? Massive loans disguised as training contracts that will be due if someone leaves? That will be the new industry standard going forward.
Regional signing bonuses are almost all gone now. The few remaining airlines that are offering them will be staffed in the next 6 months and all of those bonuses will be gone. Regionals will have much better qualified pilots to start hiring (previous 91k or 135 pilots) so those straight out of flight school with 1500 hours will have a hard time getting hired at a regional again.
Even when airbus and boeing start building airplanes quickly again, Delta and United will be start parking their older aircraft. United's fleet is ridiculously old right now and nearly 1/3 will be parked in the coming years. 250 of United's airplanes will be over 30 years old before their big retirement wave really starts to hit.
By the time that things really start going again, the output in the pilot training pipeline of student pilots will be nearly double what it is right now. The experienced regional pilots will start getting hired at the legacies again, but it will never be like it has for the last few years again.
Here's another thing for you - do you think that there will be any regionals a year from now that don't have a training contract that is enforcable? Massive loans disguised as training contracts that will be due if someone leaves? That will be the new industry standard going forward.
Regional signing bonuses are almost all gone now. The few remaining airlines that are offering them will be staffed in the next 6 months and all of those bonuses will be gone. Regionals will have much better qualified pilots to start hiring (previous 91k or 135 pilots) so those straight out of flight school with 1500 hours will have a hard time getting hired at a regional again.
Even when airbus and boeing start building airplanes quickly again, Delta and United will be start parking their older aircraft. United's fleet is ridiculously old right now and nearly 1/3 will be parked in the coming years. 250 of United's airplanes will be over 30 years old before their big retirement wave really starts to hit.
2021-23 was the best hiring years anybody on here has probably ever seen, I don't expect that to return the way it was. I'm coming across more and more "yeah maybe I should put my stuff in" guys who don't realize the easy path has gone. Back to job fairs and TPIC.
07-15-2024, 03:04 PM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 127
I think the furloughs from the other majors and cargo ops along with the military hires will cover the majority of the mainline hires for the next bit. Let's face it, if Delta/United/American/Southwest aren't making money with every seat full, there is no way that Spirit, JetBlue, or Frontier can survive in their current form. There will be thousands of pilots cut and dumped on the street for the legacies to pick up.
By the time that things really start going again, the output in the pilot training pipeline of student pilots will be nearly double what it is right now. The experienced regional pilots will start getting hired at the legacies again, but it will never be like it has for the last few years again.
By the time that things really start going again, the output in the pilot training pipeline of student pilots will be nearly double what it is right now. The experienced regional pilots will start getting hired at the legacies again, but it will never be like it has for the last few years again.
https://transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements_Financial.aspx?Qn6n=J
Last edited by b3181981; 07-15-2024 at 03:08 PM. Reason: Didn't finish post
07-16-2024, 10:00 AM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2023
Posts: 196
Air Wiskey is hiring
CommutAir is hiring
PSA is hiring
albeit at reduced rates that are more like the early 2000's.
Skywest & Republic is you sign a training contract. So, how long do you think before the production catches up to the legacy needs and the flood gates open again. Last year was the biggest year for retirements. The mandatory retirements only drop under the 3,100 last year to about 2,950 this year. Each year for the next 10 years it drops by 50-150 a year then plateaus out. That does not include medical outs, early outs or growth.
This slowdown should only last until Boeing, Airbus and P&W get their crap in order and start delivering planes at a better rate, they were down to less than 25 a month earlier this year, and are back up to 47 currently. The backorders at all the majors caused aglut of pilots and no planes. This was aggravated by the geared engine issues grounding many of those planes. The groundings are the primary reason of the Spirit furlough. Then - absent a big recession - the hiring should get busy again.
The shotage is not over; it's just paused. There mainline retirements just peaked last year. It took from 2015 to now to peak. It's not going away overnight. Once the deliveries and engine issues are resolved it will pick back up again.
Currently 121 eligible and whats being hired are not the same. There will be competition again for the slots. Higher time, higher education, better experience will all play a role again. The employment contracts with non-competes were blocked by the FTC a few months ago. They did not say if the ruling applies to the RLA industry. There is a high likelyhood that the contracts will be ruled invalid under the FTC, and the simple legal principle of duress. Sign it or no job.
CommutAir is hiring
PSA is hiring
albeit at reduced rates that are more like the early 2000's.
Skywest & Republic is you sign a training contract. So, how long do you think before the production catches up to the legacy needs and the flood gates open again. Last year was the biggest year for retirements. The mandatory retirements only drop under the 3,100 last year to about 2,950 this year. Each year for the next 10 years it drops by 50-150 a year then plateaus out. That does not include medical outs, early outs or growth.
This slowdown should only last until Boeing, Airbus and P&W get their crap in order and start delivering planes at a better rate, they were down to less than 25 a month earlier this year, and are back up to 47 currently. The backorders at all the majors caused aglut of pilots and no planes. This was aggravated by the geared engine issues grounding many of those planes. The groundings are the primary reason of the Spirit furlough. Then - absent a big recession - the hiring should get busy again.
The shotage is not over; it's just paused. There mainline retirements just peaked last year. It took from 2015 to now to peak. It's not going away overnight. Once the deliveries and engine issues are resolved it will pick back up again.
Currently 121 eligible and whats being hired are not the same. There will be competition again for the slots. Higher time, higher education, better experience will all play a role again. The employment contracts with non-competes were blocked by the FTC a few months ago. They did not say if the ruling applies to the RLA industry. There is a high likelyhood that the contracts will be ruled invalid under the FTC, and the simple legal principle of duress. Sign it or no job.
Anyone selling doom is trying to self-justify their choice to stay where they are, or ironically one of those guys who started flying in 2019 and lucked into a legacy job at the bare min qualifications and wants to pretend they know how this industry works more than anyone else. Lol
Last edited by LifetimeCFI; 07-16-2024 at 10:13 AM.
07-18-2024, 06:43 AM
#10
New Hire
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jul 2024
Posts: 2
I was told by my rercruiter that she had no idea how long my wait would be by not signing. I accepted a CJO about a month ago. I got an email last week reminding me to sign the contract for a quick training date. I never intended to sign so at this point I dont expect to get a class date before I start at another regional.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
