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Old 08-02-2022, 07:35 PM
  #4181  
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Originally Posted by amcnd
But a NH wants to come to a airline with 200+ attrition… that equals movement, fast upgrade. And opportunity…
I think we're getting into the realm of NHs needing to understand the difference between healthy attrition and attrition. Attrition overall has always been viewed because no airline has been in the position of unhealthy attrition in 20+ years. But the rate at which we lose senior FOs and junior captains is astoundingly bad for the airline model, and unsustainable, as has been posted and talked about dozens of times.

If I'm a NH, I want there to be movement, not just attrition. A savvy NH may understand that in 12 months there will be no captains left to operate the jet, and being 70% in domicile as an FO doesn't do you any good when the other seat is only half staffed and we're looking down the barrel of a recession.
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Old 08-02-2022, 08:15 PM
  #4182  
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Originally Posted by goodridecowboy
I think we're getting into the realm of NHs needing to understand the difference between healthy attrition and attrition. Attrition overall has always been viewed because no airline has been in the position of unhealthy attrition in 20+ years. But the rate at which we lose senior FOs and junior captains is astoundingly bad for the airline model, and unsustainable, as has been posted and talked about dozens of times.

If I'm a NH, I want there to be movement, not just attrition. A savvy NH may understand that in 12 months there will be no captains left to operate the jet, and being 70% in domicile as an FO doesn't do you any good when the other seat is only half staffed and we're looking down the barrel of a recession.
I’m a new hire fresh off IOE and couldn’t agree with you more. I have moved up 900 seniority spots in just over four months and that scares me. It is not healthy or sustainable.
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Old 08-03-2022, 05:09 AM
  #4183  
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Originally Posted by goodridecowboy
I think we're getting into the realm of NHs needing to understand the difference between healthy attrition and attrition. Attrition overall has always been viewed because no airline has been in the position of unhealthy attrition in 20+ years. But the rate at which we lose senior FOs and junior captains is astoundingly bad for the airline model, and unsustainable, as has been posted and talked about dozens of times.

If I'm a NH, I want there to be movement, not just attrition. A savvy NH may understand that in 12 months there will be no captains left to operate the jet, and being 70% in domicile as an FO doesn't do you any good when the other seat is only half staffed and we're looking down the barrel of a recession.
Here’s unhealthy. Just 30 upgrades awarded Aug 1. So roughly 130-140 awards in the last four months- while losing more then 130 CA each month.

SkyWest is losing more captains each single month than it’s gaining in four.

Company still months away from seeing the post Covid trainees reach 1000hrs. Many of those are terribly delayed in the pipeline. Then an FO gets a few hundred hours and can suddenly get $90/hour at Frontier.

As of today the only reason to stay and upgrade at a regional is you’re hellbent on flying midnights for the package carriers. I can’t understand SGU dragging their feet on a new contract for those willing to stay.
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Old 08-03-2022, 08:25 AM
  #4184  
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Originally Posted by goodridecowboy
If I'm a NH, I want there to be movement, not just attrition. A savvy NH may understand that in 12 months there will be no captains left to operate the jet, and being 70% in domicile as an FO doesn't do you any good when the other seat is only half staffed and we're looking down the barrel of a recession.
Bingo. Unhealthy attrition has some nasty side effects for new hires.

Too many FOs not enough captains. You sit on reserve longer (or the company delays your start date or training knowing they don’t need you). Line holding requires even more seniority. And it takes years for you to get enough hours to upgrade. If the CA/FO ratio is 2:1, the most an average FO will get is 500 hours per year.

SkyWest is shrinking. Pure and simple. Shrinking is the worst thing that can happen for the seniority list.
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Old 08-03-2022, 08:56 AM
  #4185  
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Originally Posted by TipTanks
Bingo. Unhealthy attrition has some nasty side effects for new hires.

Too many FOs not enough captains. You sit on reserve longer (or the company delays your start date or training knowing they don’t need you). Line holding requires even more seniority. And it takes years for you to get enough hours to upgrade. If the CA/FO ratio is 2:1, the most an average FO will get is 500 hours per year.

SkyWest is shrinking. Pure and simple. Shrinking is the worst thing that can happen for the seniority list.
considering the training plan moving into fall/winter, with 3 more sims online. And increasing class sizes. The plan is not to shrink...
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Old 08-03-2022, 10:19 AM
  #4186  
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Originally Posted by amcnd
considering the training plan moving into fall/winter, with 3 more sims online. And increasing class sizes. The plan is not to shrink...
Getting more new hire FOs doesn't prevent the airline from shrinking. Just because we have more pilots doesn't mean we can fly more if the ca/fo mix doesn’t work. You can have 4000 FOs but if you only have 1000 CAs then you really only have a 2000 pilot airline for flying purposes.
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Old 08-03-2022, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeepers
Getting more new hire FOs doesn't prevent the airline from shrinking. Just because we have more pilots doesn't mean we can fly more if the ca/fo mix doesn’t work. You can have 4000 FOs but if you only have 1000 CAs then you really only have a 2000 pilot airline for flying purposes.
I definitely agree. One major issue is the lack of people with captain bids in..
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Old 08-03-2022, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by amcnd
i definitely agree. One major issue is the lack of people with captain bids in..
theres no reason not to upgrade.
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Old 08-03-2022, 12:59 PM
  #4189  
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Just about every FO I’ve flown with the last two months has a class elsewhere.
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Old 08-03-2022, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by amcnd
I definitely agree. One major issue is the lack of people with captain bids in..

can’t blame them. Company is stuck in the last decade. Pretty sure they will come up with a plan just as the last aircraft is parked in the dessert. Shrinkage is last years word, this company is headed for closure.
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