SkyWest ?’s
11-24-2021, 03:45 AM
#2971
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2021
Posts: 249
I don't believe that, there will always be pilots available that meet minimums, just look how far out OO is filling classes right now (June currently on the CRJ).
What they won't have is fully staffed training departments, LCA, and training CA's to be able to QUALIFY those new hires in a timely fashion to offset the losses AND upgrade the current batch of eligible FO's to keep the line moving. That is going to be the choke point and downfall for a lot of airlines unless something is done to make the people in those three areas want to stay (i.e. start paying them better now). We are seeing the break between initial training completion and IOE growing right now and it will continue to get longer. How long before you have to restart training because they timed out before IOE could happen? For the most part, people will go where the pay is better if they are qualified - that is just the nature of the business. We've already seen one LCC start picking up FO's with no TPIC. More will follow in 2022....
If it gets bad enough, a couple of thing's will probably happen.
Door #1: The Major's will be forced to absorb what they can and the entry level 121 jobs for pilots will become one with mainline. No more (cough, cough) flow or mega bonuses to entice people to stay.
Door #2: There will be major restructuring and turmoil within the regional 121 world and 2-3 will be left standing when the dust settles. My SWAG - Republic and SkyWest split East and West as the feeders, with possibly MESA holding on to fill some gaps and Horizon for Alaska in the PNW, unless they get absorbed into mainline since they aren't that big to begin with.
Door #3: The wildcards are the LCC's, ACMI, and Cargo carriers (Purple and Brown). How they handle the situation and where they fit into the puzzle while looking for new pilots is something they will have to wrestle with as well.
The caboose is already off the tracks and shacking the tail pretty badly. How far will it get out of control before someone makes the first move to fix it. It's going to be a wild ride for sure the next 12-18 months.
The last question is, who is going to blink first to start the chain of events that will shake up the industry.
This is my opinion only, so take it for what it's worth.
What they won't have is fully staffed training departments, LCA, and training CA's to be able to QUALIFY those new hires in a timely fashion to offset the losses AND upgrade the current batch of eligible FO's to keep the line moving. That is going to be the choke point and downfall for a lot of airlines unless something is done to make the people in those three areas want to stay (i.e. start paying them better now). We are seeing the break between initial training completion and IOE growing right now and it will continue to get longer. How long before you have to restart training because they timed out before IOE could happen? For the most part, people will go where the pay is better if they are qualified - that is just the nature of the business. We've already seen one LCC start picking up FO's with no TPIC. More will follow in 2022....
If it gets bad enough, a couple of thing's will probably happen.
Door #1: The Major's will be forced to absorb what they can and the entry level 121 jobs for pilots will become one with mainline. No more (cough, cough) flow or mega bonuses to entice people to stay.
Door #2: There will be major restructuring and turmoil within the regional 121 world and 2-3 will be left standing when the dust settles. My SWAG - Republic and SkyWest split East and West as the feeders, with possibly MESA holding on to fill some gaps and Horizon for Alaska in the PNW, unless they get absorbed into mainline since they aren't that big to begin with.
Door #3: The wildcards are the LCC's, ACMI, and Cargo carriers (Purple and Brown). How they handle the situation and where they fit into the puzzle while looking for new pilots is something they will have to wrestle with as well.
The caboose is already off the tracks and shacking the tail pretty badly. How far will it get out of control before someone makes the first move to fix it. It's going to be a wild ride for sure the next 12-18 months.
The last question is, who is going to blink first to start the chain of events that will shake up the industry.
This is my opinion only, so take it for what it's worth.
11-24-2021, 04:42 AM
#2972
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 300
70 additional Captain openings for DTW, and another 30 or so for ORD on the CRJ. Plus, they'll need to backfill for this month's attrition and transfers. After downsizing DTW a while back now it's nearly doubling in size. (Which DL partner can't staff its flying?) CRJ captain pays a minimum of $75k a year and they are begging people to do it. And someone upgrading in January could easily break $100k in 2022.
This doesn't look good for CRJ to ERJ transitions in the spring.
This doesn't look good for CRJ to ERJ transitions in the spring.
11-24-2021, 04:52 AM
#2973
Porco Rosso
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 2,522
11-24-2021, 07:19 AM
#2974
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 891
I don't believe that, there will always be pilots available that meet minimums, just look how far out OO is filling classes right now (June currently on the CRJ).
What they won't have is fully staffed training departments, LCA, and training CA's to be able to QUALIFY those new hires in a timely fashion to offset the losses AND upgrade the current batch of eligible FO's to keep the line moving. That is going to be the choke point and downfall for a lot of airlines unless something is done to make the people in those three areas want to stay (i.e. start paying them better now). We are seeing the break between initial training completion and IOE growing right now and it will continue to get longer. How long before you have to restart training because they timed out before IOE could happen? For the most part, people will go where the pay is better if they are qualified - that is just the nature of the business. We've already seen one LCC start picking up FO's with no TPIC. More will follow in 2022....
If it gets bad enough, a couple of thing's will probably happen.
Door #1: The Major's will be forced to absorb what they can and the entry level 121 jobs for pilots will become one with mainline. No more (cough, cough) flow or mega bonuses to entice people to stay.
Door #2: There will be major restructuring and turmoil within the regional 121 world and 2-3 will be left standing when the dust settles. My SWAG - Republic and SkyWest split East and West as the feeders, with possibly MESA holding on to fill some gaps and Horizon for Alaska in the PNW, unless they get absorbed into mainline since they aren't that big to begin with.
Door #3: The wildcards are the LCC's, ACMI, and Cargo carriers (Purple and Brown). How they handle the situation and where they fit into the puzzle while looking for new pilots is something they will have to wrestle with as well.
The caboose is already off the tracks and shacking the tail pretty badly. How far will it get out of control before someone makes the first move to fix it. It's going to be a wild ride for sure the next 12-18 months.
The last question is, who is going to blink first to start the chain of events that will shake up the industry.
This is my opinion only, so take it for what it's worth.
What they won't have is fully staffed training departments, LCA, and training CA's to be able to QUALIFY those new hires in a timely fashion to offset the losses AND upgrade the current batch of eligible FO's to keep the line moving. That is going to be the choke point and downfall for a lot of airlines unless something is done to make the people in those three areas want to stay (i.e. start paying them better now). We are seeing the break between initial training completion and IOE growing right now and it will continue to get longer. How long before you have to restart training because they timed out before IOE could happen? For the most part, people will go where the pay is better if they are qualified - that is just the nature of the business. We've already seen one LCC start picking up FO's with no TPIC. More will follow in 2022....
If it gets bad enough, a couple of thing's will probably happen.
Door #1: The Major's will be forced to absorb what they can and the entry level 121 jobs for pilots will become one with mainline. No more (cough, cough) flow or mega bonuses to entice people to stay.
Door #2: There will be major restructuring and turmoil within the regional 121 world and 2-3 will be left standing when the dust settles. My SWAG - Republic and SkyWest split East and West as the feeders, with possibly MESA holding on to fill some gaps and Horizon for Alaska in the PNW, unless they get absorbed into mainline since they aren't that big to begin with.
Door #3: The wildcards are the LCC's, ACMI, and Cargo carriers (Purple and Brown). How they handle the situation and where they fit into the puzzle while looking for new pilots is something they will have to wrestle with as well.
The caboose is already off the tracks and shacking the tail pretty badly. How far will it get out of control before someone makes the first move to fix it. It's going to be a wild ride for sure the next 12-18 months.
The last question is, who is going to blink first to start the chain of events that will shake up the industry.
This is my opinion only, so take it for what it's worth.
11-24-2021, 09:46 AM
#2975
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2019
Posts: 170
What's the current wait between end of sim and IOE (I'll be ERJ)? Are you able to take as many observation flights as you want in the meantime?
11-24-2021, 10:39 AM
#2977
On Reserve
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 16
They should go over some Jumpseat etiquette at the end of basic Indoc IIRC
11-24-2021, 12:19 PM
#2978
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2021
Posts: 249
Friend of mine on the CRJ was told it could be 4-5 weeks. He just finished the differences course about a week ago. No idea where they are on the ERJ side of the house.
11-26-2021, 10:33 AM
#2979
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 891
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