Excargodog

They are not going to freeze-dry these guys. They are hiring now because of retirements but also because of an increase in seat miles being flown and aircraft on order. Predictions are always written in smoke, but Boeing is predicting a need for 117,000 additional airline pilots in North America alone between now and 2035, a number that would overwhelm the number of pilots currently working in ALL regionals as well as current military training numbers:

Boeing Global Services Forecasts 1.2 Million Pilots and Technicians Needed by 2036 - Jul 24, 2017

Will any of this really happen or will it be derailed by a recession/depression/war/famine/terrorist attack/catastrophic meteor strike extinction event? Who knows.

But the trend is your friend to a degree not seen since the immediate post WWII era. that's about all anyone can say. There really are NEVER any guarantees....

word302

That number from Boeing is silly.

Excargodog

Could be. But United saw an increase of four percent year over year:

United Reports July 2017 Operational Performance - Aug 8, 2017

If US airlines simply increase passenger miles by 4% per year from now until 2035, assuming the average aircraft size gets no bigger, that would translate into a doubling of the need for pilots in the legacy majors from the number currently employed, and the United CEO is saying they are going to increase their year over year growth by 6% although that admittedly needs to be seen. Since the A380 and passenger 747-8 experience of huge passenger haulers doesn't seem to be doing real well, I'm guessing that increases in passengers per aircraft are going to be modest. In fact, if the E-jet E2s become the low end aircraft at the majors flown by major crews, the average might even come down, at least domestically.

On the LCC side, Jet Blue is expecting 6.5-8% year over year growth, while Spirit is currently looking at 14.8% year over year growth in passenger miles. While it is doubtful these numbers are sustainable over the long haul, even if they were only 2% that would still create a demand for pilots several times greater than all the pilots currently in the regional fleets even if all military fixed wing pilots trained in that period left the service as soon as their training-related active duty service commitment was up.

So yeah, Boeing may be exaggerating, they sell aircraft for a living after all, and no one can predict economic downturns or disasters, but it would be difficult to deny that the environment for pilot progression from the regionals to the majors isn't as bright as its been in our lifetimes. You don't have to be a Pollyanna to have a hopeful outlook.

Pilatus801

Why do you believe the number is silly? I guess if you consider positive economic growth, both domestically and internationally, population growth, expansion of travel, airports and airline fleets....then why is the number silly?

And i get that Boeing may have somewhat of a conflict of interest, but i assume that with pending heavy retirements and travel boom and growth of airlines worldwide, i can see how there is a growing pilot shortage. Furthermore, the 1,500 rule and cost of training has impeded a lot of pilots looking at the career. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some rule change of the 1,500 hours and even sweeter financial offers from airline operators as the squeeze gets tighter.

word302

Um....math? 117,000 pilots over the next 17 years is 6882 pilots EVERY YEAR for 17 years straight. That’s the entire regional force replaced every 2 years. Scratching your head yet?

Pilatus801

I don't believe it's that simple. I'm just asking questions here; currently I wonder what the total number of active pilots is in North America.... Which should include all Aviation, majors, regional, cargo, commuter, corporate, etc. because if there are 50,000 active and employed pilots currently, adding another 6 to 7, 000 per year is not entirely radical. If anyone knows the actual numbers please share. I went to the Boeing article but didn't see current pilot figures.

Check Complete

I don't know how many will be needed per year but when you think of just more than just retirements and factor in growth, it seems feasible the number could be in the 6K range per year. Great Lakes just closed their doors, and solely attributed it to the lack of pilots, this would have been unheard of 7 to 10 years ago. (hoping all you great lakers quickly land on your feet)

But for today the regionals are going to have to up their game just to stay in business. Right now SkyWest is so behind the curve, i just don't know if the recovery can happen. This could be start of demise. A new pilot came up to me today just to say goodbye, said Friday was his last day. Of course I asked him where he was going, expecting to hear Delta, SouthWest, etc. He said he was going back to developing some type of software, getting out of aviation, but maybe not forever? But at least for the next few years. Said the new change in reserve rules was too much to handle, the terrible pay and zero QOL were not worth it to be at SkyWest. He asked if I knew so and so, I did, and he said that guy was leaving for the same reason.

The reserve rules changed recently at SkyWest, that basically took what is an absolutely terrible QOL and and made it far worse. A new idea for reserve notification was approved and the company saw the grand canyon size loop hole in the wording and jumped on it to the complete and sole benefit of the company. The company is doing nothing, they love it.

I just can't believe people still apply here?

Pilatus801

I just went into the airline profiles on APC and grabbed the pilot numbers for all the US majors, Legacy, Regionals and the larger Cargo operators.

Total number of pilots just from those groups is 91,572. And, that is leaving out fractionals, charters and many other aviation providers. So the Boeing projections of 6,877 per year is likely an accurate forecast. I would tend to believe that Boeing put a lot of detailed research and computing to arrive at their numbers, rather than just shooting from the hip.

Pilatus801

Well this is demoralizing to hear. This type of information has fueled my concern of whether or not to move forward in flight training. I consider aviation to be a highly skilled career and yet new entry pilots, after investing so much are given poor QOL and very low pay. Unless this changes and airlines start treating their aviation professionals like professionals, i think plenty of viable candidates are staying away and pursuing other careers. I am still on the fence. I guess i am crossing my fingers that these companies will step up and pay living wages to their professional pilots. Even on day 1. I know my wish will likely not come true.

FollowMe

According to the age study put together by Delta a couple years back there were ~86,000 pilots between the Major/Cargo/Regional carriers in North America. of those 57,258 will reach mandatory retirement in the next 20 years. So outside of the retirements Boeing is predicting an expansion of 60,000 pilots. That's more than DL/UA/AA/WN employ today combined. Is it possible? Sure, certainly the industry has plans to grow. But that scale sounds more like what Boeing wants to happen than a solid forecast of what will happen.