JamesNoBrakes

Depends on what was planned. Like I said it raises questions about the operational control. Was the weather condition known? Why was the flight not just delayed a few hours or flown on a different day? Why did it not turn back in flight? Why didn't it go to an alternate? Why was the weather different than forecast (if it was) or did the weather meet minimums for dispatch in the first place? It may be a long distance, but it's also not as desolate as over open water. On the surface, if it was holding for 2hrs, it seems to set up a classic "get-there-itis" scenario. Unless the aircraft is international with relief crews, airliners probably shouldn't be able to "hold for hours" awaiting weather to improve, as it sets up these types of scenarios and the company would need many additional systems and control measures to counter the "get-there-itis".

r1830

First, my condolences to all affected by this tragedy.


METARs on
URRR 190100Z 24014G22MPS 3800 -SHRA BKN014 BKN033CB OVC100 06/04 Q0997 R22/290046 TEMPO 25017G25MPS 1000 SHRA BR SCT003 BKN020CB RMK QFE740/0987
URRR 190030Z 24012G19MPS 6000 -SHRA SCT018 BKN036CB OVC100 06/04 Q0998 R22/290046 TEMPO 25017G25MPS 1000 SHRA BR SCT003 BKN020CB RMK QFE741/0988

METARs are reported in true, URRRs magnetic variation is 6E. The wind at 0030z (crash at 0043z) was 24012G19MPS, remarks show a temporary gust 25017G25MPS

240 true -6E = 234 magnetic
12G19 MPS = 23 gusting 37 knots

The TEMPO
250 true -6E = 244 magnetic
17G25MPS = 33 gusting 49 knots

Runway 22 actual magnetic heading is 218 degrees

234 degrees -218 degrees = 16 degree crosswind component
23G37 = a 6g10 kt crosswind /22g36 kt headwind

The TEMPO 244 degrees -218 degrees =26 degrees crosswind component
33G49 = a 14g21 kt crosswind /30g44 kt headwind

Wind was mostly down the runway.

For those curious about the R22/290046 remark. It decodes as follows.
R22-That is runway 22
2- wet (contamination type)
9- 50-100% of surface (percent coverage)
00- <1mm (average depth)
46- 46% friction coefficient

say again

I do agree that there's more involved than just pilots, but ultimately the pilots are the ones in complete control and have the ability to make the correct decision based on what information they have.

Airhoss

Just curious, I wonder what the weather at the alternate was? Is it possible that one of the decision making factors in extended holding was the alternate going down? Obviously if that happens it's time to come up with a plan C but all the same, was it a factor?

Also what is the culture at Fly Dubai? Is there a penalty for not making it to your destination. I continuously hear what a bunch of vindictive bastards flight management at some of these Middle eastern carries can be.

CLazarus

W-O-W, just watched the video and the initial reports seem pretty far off to me. I can't tell if there was a fire, but I doubt it and that heat source was way too large/strong to just be one of the lights. A flamed out or idling engine is a strong possibility.

The initial media reports made it sound like they were struggling with the winds approaching touchdown.... but that thing slammed in at a very steep angle after an aborted go around. Winds were not a factor on the go. I'd hazard a guess that they either dropped fuel from their crosscheck and ran out of gas on the go followed by a panicked attempt to land it. Or, they may have simply became spatially disoriented on the go. Perhaps a combination of the two scenarios.

Why they held for two hours before trying to land again (or divert) is incomprehensible to me. Lets learn from this so nothing like it every happens again. My sympathies to the victims and their families.

Toasty

Look at the bank angle on that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aBq8saXy2M

Adlerdriver

I think it's time to follow the advice in your very own avatar.

badflaps

Holding for two hours+ used to be SOP until fuel prices went up.

Left Handed

When I listened to the audio, I could have sworn I heard the controller say windshear on the runway several times in response to the weather requests of the pilots. Hitting WS in a high AOA low energy state would be very difficult to handle.

JamesNoBrakes

That and the whole "having an alternate" is not always as simple as it seems, you can put one down for paperwork purposes or for the real world. I know a lot of airlines/operators that fly to remote places that carry return fuel or fuel to get to significantly different areas, where the weather being better is much more of a sure thing. I'm guessing this flight travels over a lot of desolate territory and goes into a desolate place. That may mean the proper rig to use is something like a 757 which can carry enough fuel to return, I don't know, but holding for 2 hours is usually a big red flag, it means you've cornered yourself into one course of action and special destinations need a lot of special considerations and safety controls to prevent bad things happening.