After UPS crash, former NTSB chairman says pl
08-15-2013, 01:38 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: MD11 CPT
Posts: 1,077
It was James Hall, and Albief3 (who said "One level of safety, period. Now.") Sorry if I came off angry at any of us here.
I don't buy the notion that hours of flight time has much effect on safety, after somewhere in the 250-500 hour region. By then, you either know that you are mortal, and you manage risk intelligently, or you're likely going to die in an aircraft.
Crew rest is entirely another issue, and there I wholeheartedly agree that a tired crew is a dangerous crew, no matter what or who is in back.
Intelligent risk management includes things like considering the unintended consequences of requiring child seats for every infant.
Are there really pilots who do not see a major airline pilot shortage in the next few years, thanks in large part to the 1200 hour requirement? Is it not "enough" that pilots spend a 1/4 $million getting their first 500 hours, so they can work for $18,000 their first year? They should have to spend $1 Million to have 1200 hours and gobs of turbine time? Please.
I don't buy the notion that hours of flight time has much effect on safety, after somewhere in the 250-500 hour region. By then, you either know that you are mortal, and you manage risk intelligently, or you're likely going to die in an aircraft.
Crew rest is entirely another issue, and there I wholeheartedly agree that a tired crew is a dangerous crew, no matter what or who is in back.
Intelligent risk management includes things like considering the unintended consequences of requiring child seats for every infant.
Are there really pilots who do not see a major airline pilot shortage in the next few years, thanks in large part to the 1200 hour requirement? Is it not "enough" that pilots spend a 1/4 $million getting their first 500 hours, so they can work for $18,000 their first year? They should have to spend $1 Million to have 1200 hours and gobs of turbine time? Please.
What could possibly go wrong? Given the cost of earning ratings these days and the wholesale decimation of general aviation from many angles (EPA threatening to ban 100LL, insurance and new equipment costs) its amazing anybody outside the military is even contemplating this career.
08-15-2013, 01:43 PM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: FAA 'Flight Check'
Posts: 13,839
I don't buy the notion that hours of flight time has much effect on safety, after somewhere in the 250-500 hour region. By then, you either know that you are mortal, and you manage risk intelligently, or you're likely going to die in an aircraft.
Your know you are mortal and everything scares you; then you have a few hundred under your belt and you figure you can conquer anything. Then after a few more hundreds of hours you actually do something that scares you and you go back to being extra *careful* until that fear wears off again and now you have thousands of hours in your airplane and flying to the same places over and over again - - and then something once again scares the crap out of you and you dig back into the books all over again. Rinse and repeat.
08-15-2013, 01:50 PM
#23
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: lapsed medical
Posts: 65
Actually not. It goes through cycles.
Your know you are mortal and everything scares you; then you have a few hundred under your belt and you figure you can conquer anything. Then after a few more hundreds of hours you actually do something that scares you and you go back to being extra *careful* until that fear wears off again and now you have thousands of hours in your airplane and flying to the same places over and over again - - and then something once again scares the crap out of you and you dig back into the books all over again. Rinse and repeat.
Your know you are mortal and everything scares you; then you have a few hundred under your belt and you figure you can conquer anything. Then after a few more hundreds of hours you actually do something that scares you and you go back to being extra *careful* until that fear wears off again and now you have thousands of hours in your airplane and flying to the same places over and over again - - and then something once again scares the crap out of you and you dig back into the books all over again. Rinse and repeat.
08-15-2013, 02:26 PM
#24
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,992
It was James Hall, and Albief3 (who said "One level of safety, period. Now.") Sorry if I came off angry at any of us here.
I don't buy the notion that hours of flight time has much effect on safety, after somewhere in the 250-500 hour region. By then, you either know that you are mortal, and you manage risk intelligently, or you're likely going to die in an aircraft.
Crew rest is entirely another issue, and there I wholeheartedly agree that a tired crew is a dangerous crew, no matter what or who is in back.
Intelligent risk management includes things like considering the unintended consequences of requiring child seats for every infant.
Are there really pilots who do not see a major airline pilot shortage in the next few years, thanks in large part to the 1200 hour requirement? Is it not "enough" that pilots spend a 1/4 $million getting their first 500 hours, so they can work for $18,000 their first year? They should have to spend $1 Million to have 1200 hours and gobs of turbine time? Please.
I don't buy the notion that hours of flight time has much effect on safety, after somewhere in the 250-500 hour region. By then, you either know that you are mortal, and you manage risk intelligently, or you're likely going to die in an aircraft.
Crew rest is entirely another issue, and there I wholeheartedly agree that a tired crew is a dangerous crew, no matter what or who is in back.
Intelligent risk management includes things like considering the unintended consequences of requiring child seats for every infant.
Are there really pilots who do not see a major airline pilot shortage in the next few years, thanks in large part to the 1200 hour requirement? Is it not "enough" that pilots spend a 1/4 $million getting their first 500 hours, so they can work for $18,000 their first year? They should have to spend $1 Million to have 1200 hours and gobs of turbine time? Please.
Lack of hours, particularly less than 500-1000 (depending on the individual and type of hours) is a problem...you simply don't know what you don't know.
A lot of hours (particularly PIC) combined with a clean record provides an indication that in, all likelyhood, the individual has encountered some situations which required good judgement and came out of it unscathed.
High time is not a particularly good indicator of pilot skill...you either have, and maintain it...or you don't.
08-15-2013, 05:42 PM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,931
If it results in disaster it's his fault.
08-15-2013, 07:43 PM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Out of Regional Jet flying
Posts: 296
The flying public does not care… as long as is it doesn’t happen to them or their children. Read the transcript of the Air Midwest with the little girl crying out “DADDY!” as the aircraft rolls over. We can all picture our loved ones in this abject horror of that moment. The public on the other hand may not identify with this feeling. The public does not care as long as they get cheap tickets. It’s a symptom of our current society. I say let’s let the 200 hr wonders back in the cockpit and hypothetically if more accidents occurred, the public still would not care. On these forums, the arguments range from degree vs. non-degree,,, military vs. civilian,,, SJS flight schools grads vs. ATP 135 salts of the air. It’s all useless hot air blather (like someone mentioned comes only from flight attds). The public does not care. Now I am going to be very unkind:
Let’s consider the family members that lost a loved one in the Colgan crash. Yes, they have been regulars in D.C. and have influenced rule changes in our industry.. But let’s be honest, how many of these folks lifted a finger to do anything about the situation until something happened to them personally?
I strive to fly safely so that I may see my wife and kids at the end of the day… the folks in the back benefit from my personal desires, and nothing more.
Let’s consider the family members that lost a loved one in the Colgan crash. Yes, they have been regulars in D.C. and have influenced rule changes in our industry.. But let’s be honest, how many of these folks lifted a finger to do anything about the situation until something happened to them personally?
I strive to fly safely so that I may see my wife and kids at the end of the day… the folks in the back benefit from my personal desires, and nothing more.
08-15-2013, 09:43 PM
#27
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,756
Please, do some research before spouting off nonsense.
08-16-2013, 04:48 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: MD-11 Captain
Posts: 4,304
Years ago when FDX ALPA threatened to go on strike ... it soon became apparent that the company made arrangements to cover ALL of our European flying with Irish pilots, MOST of our Asian pilots with ACMI companies ... it's likely that management would have flown some of our domestic system. They had a majority of our system flying covered (thus the illegal parking lot deal! yup ... the union Chairman actually met with company negotiators in a parking lot, these were the same guys that used to meet with company negotiators for prayer meetings). We'll never know what might have happened if we'd gone on strike
So , let's just accept "Chineses pilots' as generic replacement pilots (sort of like NURPS?)
08-16-2013, 07:49 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: Standing in front of the tank with a shopping bag
Posts: 924
China is already short of pilots...
I didn't post the Chinese pilot comment but,
Years ago when FDX ALPA threatened to go on strike ... it soon became apparent that the company made arrangements to cover ALL of our European flying with Irish pilots, MOST of our Asian pilots with ACMI companies ... it's likely that management would have flown some of our domestic system. They had a majority of our system flying covered (thus the illegal parking lot deal! yup ... the union Chairman actually met with company negotiators in a parking lot, these were the same guys that used to meet with company negotiators for prayer meetings). We'll never know what might have happened if we'd gone on strike
So , let's just accept "Chineses pilots' as generic replacement pilots (sort of like NURPS?)
Years ago when FDX ALPA threatened to go on strike ... it soon became apparent that the company made arrangements to cover ALL of our European flying with Irish pilots, MOST of our Asian pilots with ACMI companies ... it's likely that management would have flown some of our domestic system. They had a majority of our system flying covered (thus the illegal parking lot deal! yup ... the union Chairman actually met with company negotiators in a parking lot, these were the same guys that used to meet with company negotiators for prayer meetings). We'll never know what might have happened if we'd gone on strike
So , let's just accept "Chineses pilots' as generic replacement pilots (sort of like NURPS?)
This story was already written in August 1997 during the UPS Strike.
08-16-2013, 08:58 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: Captain
Posts: 101
"Years ago when FDX ALPA threatened to go on strike..."
I understand that this is the Internet but... it was 1998. FPA, the FedEx Pilot's Association, was representing the crew force not FDX ALPA. We did not have a chairman but an Association President, Capt FF. The company threaten to use Danish (not the breakfast food) pilots not Irish pilots to fill the European flying. We truly didn't think 58 management pilots were going to backfill the domestic system but we did worry about crew members crossing any picket line that we may have established and the company was looking to use vast amounts of trucking. The parking lot deal is spot on and a low point for many of us. But as I tell people "it was not our destiny but our Fato".
Sorry for the thread hijack.
My deepest sympathies go out to the families of UPS 1345 and the entire UPS crew force.
Bonjour,
The ATM (yes, I am also a French model)
I understand that this is the Internet but... it was 1998. FPA, the FedEx Pilot's Association, was representing the crew force not FDX ALPA. We did not have a chairman but an Association President, Capt FF. The company threaten to use Danish (not the breakfast food) pilots not Irish pilots to fill the European flying. We truly didn't think 58 management pilots were going to backfill the domestic system but we did worry about crew members crossing any picket line that we may have established and the company was looking to use vast amounts of trucking. The parking lot deal is spot on and a low point for many of us. But as I tell people "it was not our destiny but our Fato".
Sorry for the thread hijack.
My deepest sympathies go out to the families of UPS 1345 and the entire UPS crew force.
Bonjour,
The ATM (yes, I am also a French model)
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