Bellanca

This.

1) Us regional pilots would be more than happy to fly a 175 at mainline. What regional pilot wouldn't want to fly in the same seat in the same aircraft for an extra $35/hour (possibly more) on a mainline seniority list?

The problem is that us regional pilots arent the ones voting on a delta TA. The vast majority of pilots that have "made it" don't want to go back to flying RJs. And the ex mil don't want to go from flYing a heavy or a fighter to flying a an RJ on crappy short routes.

Just look at how junior bids on the MD80/717 go. Or the e190 at us airways/aa. Both of those aircraft are flying the same type of routes a lot of regional pilots do, 4-5 legs per day, etc.

2) At least right now this is the case. Hence why they will probably give a financial incentive to the pilot group to do this. It will be cheaper to give mainline an extra 10% pay, and have contractors fly RJs, than to take them in house. The only thing that is closing the gap somewhat is the current shortage, and I'm not convinced that the shortage will get so severe that this will make financial sense any time in the near future.

2 #2) exactly. To get a majority of pilots to turn down a good pay raise/contract to save jobs below them isn't going to happen. Only way they are going to get a majority 'no' vote is that a bunch of pilots will vote no because they think they can get more in the next round of negotiations.

The major's pilot groups (and some regional pilot groups, too) have a long history of pulling the ladder up and out from the people behind them.

Duesenflieger

^Yep. I hate to be pessimistic, but it will take a miracle for RJs to be flown at mainline. Now the question becomes to which regional will Delta award those 76-seaters.

404yxl

If the line is held it will be 50 more C Series at mainline, not 50 more 76-seaters.

Mesabah

I would highly doubt Delta pilots would vote down a contract based on a single issue. The last TA had multiple concessions, was defeated in a landslide, but still had some meaningful support. So if this new TA took most of those multiple concessions away, I would expect it to pass by a slim margin.

I would say without a doubt the last TA failed over the work rule concessions, and top end scope, RJ's were an afterthought.

Mesabah

15 to Endeavor, 35 to Skywest. My guess of course.

Flytolive

Ding, ding, ding!!! Finally, someone who gets it.

Stop selling scope for $. Hold the line!

Duesenflieger

Let's hope, although I'm not too optimistic that a pilot group which is currently demanding more pay will miss the opportunity to forego to take on RJs for the sake of the piloting profession.

404yxl

More and more former regional pilots get of probation every day at Delta. There are probably well over 1000 new pilots who get to vote than last years TA. More and more senior pilots have kids rethinking or already starting the process of becoming an airline pilot. Will they want to screw their child over?

So unless you think 50+% of those groups will want to vote Yes for more 76-seaters, the numbers only get worse for them trying to outsource more.

Flytolive

If only it were so. The other side of the ledger is revenues and it includes things like passengers (including yield), cargo and ancillary revenues that can be maximized on larger aircraft. Often times larger, higher trip cost aircraft can beat a "more appropriately-sized" aircraft because of this on a cash flow basis.

But we are pilots not management so this is not our concern per se.

Stop selling scope for $. Hold the line.

WesternSkies

Those pesky labor costs have been rising.