Tpinks

TSA has had two similar landing accidents at Ottowa, both with ERJ-145's; one in 10' and one in 11'. The 2011 accident resulted in the plane being scrapped.

Photo: N840HK (CN: 145341) Embraer ERJ-145LR by Parent Photography Photoid:7252852 - JetPhotos.Net

Flubber

How did Comair get the offer to fly the CRJ, way back? Delta pilots didn't want to fly the "little" plane. That was one big step for the industry that will never get undone.

RemoveB4Flight

You just mentioned their incentive. When their options are to not have a flight or to take the flying in house to pay pilots a reasonable wage..I'm sure they would choose the latter. They have far more to lose by not conducting a flight at all than they do increasing pay. Pilots pay is a drop in the bucket for what it takes to run an airline.

Every regional airline pilots pay could double overnight and it probably wouldn't even be noticed on the price of an airline ticket.

As far as flying RJs at a major airline? Yeah I'm sure you're right, you won't have guys who are already already out of the RJ at a major jumping up to switch back but I bet you won't have any problem getting current RJ pilots to stay on the same airplane for twice their pay plus mainline benefits.

idlethrust

If we are lucky all of them will be a thing of the past

Turbosina

Payscales are the only reason that regional airlines even exist. It all comes down to, how low can an airline drive their CASM numbers? When you're paying the FOs $26/hr, the FAs $18/hr, and a junior CA $60/hr, that's going to help keep your CASM significantly lower than if you're paying mainline wages. Even reductions of a fraction of a percentage point can mean millions in extra profit and a few pennies' gain on your stock price.

Not only would the mainline finance guys notice it, the pax would too. When you search for airline tix on Hotwire, an airline with a fare of, say, $317.50 will list before an airline with a price of $318. The higher your placement in those search results, the better your chances of making that sale. Airline choice in the United States now comes down to 2 factors: Price and convenience (as in, how cheaply can I fly, and does this flight leave when I want to?) Service, or aircraft size, or the likelihood of the carrier losing your bags, are generally not considered in the average consumer's decision. Same goes for corporate travel departments, and business travelers provide the lion's share of most airlines' profitable bookings.

Sure, but what incentive does mainline have to offer mainline pay and benefits to fly an RJ? The only scenario in which I can see that happening is if regionals really can't hire enough pilots to keep the airplanes staffed. And while we've been hearing about the pilot shortage for years, the fact that my own regional has grown by +20% in terms of pilot staffing over the past 2 years, and that only a few regionals (ie Republic) have actually experienced serious staffing issues, leads me to believe that the shortage, even at the regional level, is nowhere as severe as some might think.

What I can imagine in the future, if the pilot shortage truly materializes at the regional level, is mainline programs that significantly improve the flows currently being offered, which are nebulous at best and nearly impossible to predict in terms of duration. For example, UAL might say to prospective applicants: "OK, sign on to get all your ratings at Flight School X, then instruct until you reach 1,500 hours. Then, we'll hire you at Regional Y, where you'll need to give us at least 5 years' service at regional pay rates. Do that, and you'll automatically flow to mainline." That strategy would keep regional airplanes staffed, would keep mainline labor costs down, and basically is the same approach as the ab initio programs already take, with the caveat that you must put in your time at a regional before going to mainline.

In other words, it's in mainline management's interest to keep the average pilot wages as low as possible, for as long as possible. Unless mainlines can get their unions to agree to a D scale for pilots who come through ab initio training programs (which is doubtful), the best way to ensure a plentiful supply of low-wage pilots is the solution I mentioned above.

Of course, God forbid, we could have another 9/11 tomorrow, and then all this talk of pilot shortages will go out the door as the mainline and regional carriers shed 25% or more of their workforces. That, or another eruption in the Middle East could spike oil prices, leading to much of the same. So who the hell knows? This is why I don't invest in airline stocks...

MartinBishop

What if the regionals increase pilot pay, and pass the cost on to the mainline contract?

WesternSkies

In my estimation pilot pay is a part factor in decision to outsource (mx, dispatch, Flight ops,). With how much SkyW pays wall street it couldn't be too much more expensive to bring it all in house.

RemoveB4Flight

The pilot shortage is very real but is only the beginning. The bulk of mandatory retirements are yet to come and the pool of available new (not lateral transfer) pilots is drying up.
Anyone who thinks otherwise either lives under a rock or is in serious denial.
Recent pay at the regionals has been increasing significantly (relatively speaking) and they have all been topping each other with every new contract. Don't think they are doing this out of the goodness of their heart..they all know it's getting more difficult to get new hires.
The next couple years will be very telling. I believe the shortage will get bad enough that drastic changes will need to be made to the regionals in terms of compensation/benefits.

RemoveB4Flight

^this
When things get really bad and the regionals coming knocking for more money so they can afford to increase pay at the regional level, the majors will be able to reach into their deep pockets during record profit times

gojo

Stupid thing to say.... Who would think they would do this "out of the goodness of their hears". It's simple economics, and I think most of us are college graduates. It's simply supply and demand. Just like the supply of oil goes down but demand stays strong, the price goes up.