So when the price of oil recovers...
03-13-2016, 05:41 PM
#11
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Joined APC: Oct 2014
Position: 6 Train - Panhandler
Posts: 2,001
Just my thoughts, but the shortage of pilots willing to work for crap wages is already causing the airlines to streamline and "right size" their operations. Ticket fares are increasing and will increase further as airlines blame the shortage of pilots and increased wages as the reason for increased fares. The increased wages will increase the draw for pilots to join the career field. So when oil does recover the airlines will once again raise fares to compensate. If this somehow results in an abundance of pilots it won't result in furloughs due to the retirement wave, but it may put the airlines in a position to grow their regionals again, which they would love.
03-14-2016, 06:47 AM
#16
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Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 26
Some suggest that the pilot shortage may not be so much a result of a marked increase in a demand for traveling by air or even suppressed oil prices, as it is the pool of qualified pilots shrunk overnight with the Colgan Air Crash, or more particularly, the NTSB report recommending and the FAA requiring ATP certs for FOs. There were a lot of pilots with 300-800 hours but not so many with 1500 and an ATP. Those were already flying. That started the shortage. What has sustained it is the rapidly increasing price of training to get to 1500 hours. Fuel prices seem to have a smaller influence the demand for pilots than does the lack of properly certified pilots. But, it will at some point return to the in-equilibrium where there is a pilot glut and the airlines aren't offering sign on or retention bonuses. IMHO of course.
03-14-2016, 07:03 AM
#17
Are we there yet??!!
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,010
Some suggest that the pilot shortage may not be so much a result of a marked increase in a demand for traveling by air or even suppressed oil prices, as it is the pool of qualified pilots shrunk overnight with the Colgan Air Crash, or more particularly, the NTSB report recommending and the FAA requiring ATP certs for FOs. There were a lot of pilots with 300-800 hours but not so many with 1500 and an ATP. Those were already flying. That started the shortage. What has sustained it is the rapidly increasing price of training to get to 1500 hours. Fuel prices seem to have a smaller influence the demand for pilots than does the lack of properly certified pilots. But, it will at some point return to the in-equilibrium where there is a pilot glut and the airlines aren't offering sign on or retention bonuses. IMHO of course.
The only shortage that exist in the pilot pipeline is a shortage of folks willing to spend big $$$ to make little dollars $ at the regional/commuter level. Esp now that the regional/commuter level may be as far as many get because those RJs now fly approx 50%+ of the domestic departures.
The cost of petroleum and the cost of gas that you put in your car has a very small impact in the cost of the training aspect and I know of no one that "bought" time up to 1500 hrs.
1500 hrs used to be the de facto hiring minimum but for a few years in went ridiculously low. At least not it is a hard and fast number.
Kit Darby was spouting this whole pilot shortage thing was right around the corner since the mid 80s. Still hasn't happened. The legacies sure are not hurting for applicants. Only places hurting are the ones that want to pay McDonalds wages.
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