pete2800

I'd assume because upgrade time is a current measure of performance. It's a snapshot of how the performance has been for someone who was hired years ago. For someone hired today, it very well might be 2 years. It might be 8. We don't know.

I don't understand why pilots continue to place so much importance on such a meaningless statistic. There have been people hired at my company that upgraded in 13 years. When they were hired, they estimated 5 years. When I was hired, the estimate was 13, and it's looking like it's going to be under 4. Upgrade time is the least consistent factor at a regional airline, and as such it should be the least important factor when choosing a place to work. But people keep holding upgrade time as a priority over things like pay and benefits, which is one reason our collective pay and benefits are in the crapper.

MoovenUP

Well it is coming close to summer months, it is getting warm, there is a slushy variety of the koolaid and it is fantastic.

The brazilia was rumored to be parked about 20 years ago.. They are just now being pulled off line completely in the next month or two. Go ahead and keep telling me how these 50 seat jets are not going to be around tomorrow. The facts: SkyWest has been growing and there is high attrition to all majors. And guess what? Some of that growth has been in the 50 seat market. I often fly 45 people in a 50 seat jet. I bet with those loads the 50 seat jet is going to be around for a while. Of course reduce frequency and increase jet size is an option but the airlines in general have found the higher frequency to be a winning ticket. From the small stuff to the heavies.

And yeah, go to a Jr base and fly what nobody wants to.. Upgrade comes way faster. There are many 8 or 9 year FO that hold out for their base of choice and or because their wife has a sweet job they don't need the upgrade. Just like everyone else... I am looking at numbers today because you can't tell the future upgrades can change dramatically.

MoovenUP

this guy gets it.

404yxl

That is because there was not as much hiring between the recession and 2013. Since 2013, there is a lot more hired. a 2 year upgrade for a 2013 hire, does not mean a 2 year upgrade for a 2015 hire, if 1500 pilots were hired from 2013-2015

404yxl

In order to upgrade in 2 years, you will need the top 50% to leave in 2 years. To upgrade for every 1% below 50%, you will need 1% to bypass. In 2 years, you will probably be 75% at the company if they maintain their fleet count. Pretty much, you will need 25% bypass to hold CA. You are in for a rude awakening if you think the regionals are not contracting right now.

Another way to look at it is in order to upgrade in 2 years, you will need 25% to bypass. That is not a 2 year upgrade, that is an upgrade predicated on the assumption that 25% of the pilots will bypass. We have pilots hired 6 months ago holding CA at Compass. That does not equate a 6 month upgrade, it just means we have a high bypass of FO's right now due to not meeting the 1000 hour requirement and those upgrades can only go to candidates coming from other 121 or 135 PIC flying. Just starting out, you will not be able to hold anything. Skywest will not have that issue and as a result will not see as high of a bypass rate.

A pilot hired today at Skywest, will need 1750 ATP candidates hired below them to reach the 50% threshold and 875 pilots to reach the 75% threshold.

Apparently more realistic than yours. A pilot hired right now at Skywest, will need 1750 pilots hired below them to reach the 50% threshold. That involves Skywest not shrinking. Have you been paying attention to the mainline growth and regional contraction that has been going on and is quickly accelerating?

404yxl

Your predicating a big assumption on that continuing and the current bypass rate holding true for someone hired today, when it won't.

Compass has a 25% bypass rate (75% holding CA) and it will soon go to 40% bypass rate (90% holding CA). That will only last through this fall, when it will drop back to the 10% bypass rate by next year (60% holding CA). If we grow again or have higher than normal attrition it may change, but someone hired today at Compass, with 0 121 time, is looking at least 2 years, more likely 3-4 years to upgrade.

404yxl

I'm quoting this for fun.

MoovenUP

Clearly you are familiar with numbers. However you don't have access to the numbers and what is actually happening at SkyWest. Most recent CA award is 2250ish, so there goes the whole 50% thing (1750). There are 800ish pilots between me and that guy. Of those.. Only 300 ish currently bidding for MSP. Upgrading about 40 a month now. Already over 400 pilots on the list Jr to me. I completely realize and understand things change constantly, but with those numbers I think I have a good chance of being awarded cap within 2.5 years at SkyWest. This is my 4th gig and I came here with a 8 year upgrade at the time I have all the time I need but I wanted a better company than I had worked for and better than the majority of regionals. Speaking of which.. It is slushy o'clock. Yummmy

MoovenUP

Its warm for 60 days!

PilotCrusader

More crap. This article sucks.