This is what a pilot shortage really does
12-02-2014, 07:34 AM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Position: Supreme Allied Commander
Posts: 1,074
Sorry,
You are wrong on just about every count. If you think SKYW operates in a vacuum, guess again. Every flight is operated under an agreement with a codeshare partner. Show me a way to buy a SKYW ticket. I personally know most of the SKYW recruiters, there is a quiet panic swirling around SGU. The sign on bonus will be here shortly. SKYW is joining the ranks of operators buying applicants. So even if the SOB(Sign-On Bonus) is 15k, it really is inconsequential, it will be paid over a few years, so enjoy those sub standard Mesa competing pay scales, while you st in the right seat for 7+ years(assuming you want to commute to reserve). The industry is in a systemic collapse, the average airline pilot is 48 years old and has their cash in the bank so 65-67-70 is moot if no one wants to stay. Just a few short years ago Great Lakes had no trouble staffing, today multiple regionals are pimping SOBs, DAL is admitting to 100+ per month, if they are representative of the industry, add UAL and AA to the que. That's a minimum of 3600 a year for the coming years. Total regional pilot force is 21k give or take a few, that's 7 years to totally gone, but in reality is only 3.5 years, 2 pilots to operate a 121 fight(today). Right now the TSA is hiring street Captains, so the collapse is starting to hit the Regionals. If you need stronger proof than this, try to stop a spinning EMB120 prop with your tongue.
You are wrong on just about every count. If you think SKYW operates in a vacuum, guess again. Every flight is operated under an agreement with a codeshare partner. Show me a way to buy a SKYW ticket. I personally know most of the SKYW recruiters, there is a quiet panic swirling around SGU. The sign on bonus will be here shortly. SKYW is joining the ranks of operators buying applicants. So even if the SOB(Sign-On Bonus) is 15k, it really is inconsequential, it will be paid over a few years, so enjoy those sub standard Mesa competing pay scales, while you st in the right seat for 7+ years(assuming you want to commute to reserve). The industry is in a systemic collapse, the average airline pilot is 48 years old and has their cash in the bank so 65-67-70 is moot if no one wants to stay. Just a few short years ago Great Lakes had no trouble staffing, today multiple regionals are pimping SOBs, DAL is admitting to 100+ per month, if they are representative of the industry, add UAL and AA to the que. That's a minimum of 3600 a year for the coming years. Total regional pilot force is 21k give or take a few, that's 7 years to totally gone, but in reality is only 3.5 years, 2 pilots to operate a 121 fight(today). Right now the TSA is hiring street Captains, so the collapse is starting to hit the Regionals. If you need stronger proof than this, try to stop a spinning EMB120 prop with your tongue.
The big wave of Major retirements is just about to crest, but lets not forget its not solely 21k Regional pilots for the picking. Thousands of higher preferred military guys are going to join the exodus, as well as some at LCC, corporate, foreign, etc. Opportunities will abound for the current 10k regional guys with competitive qualifications, PIC experience being the most valuable.
12-02-2014, 01:37 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,412
There is no pilot shortage. There are over 70,000 pilots that hold an ATP but are not working for a 121 airline. Why?
The majors only concern is that their regional partners will not be able to fill the cockpit. There is no worries about filling their cockpits. They said so to congress.
The regionals and their major partners could fix this tomorrow, if they want to. They simply don't want to or feel the need to do so. All the majors would have to do is pay more for their feed and then the regionals could pay more. It isn't happening because B schools teach crisis management. Create a crisis and let the managers figure out how to cut costs.
The majors only concern is that their regional partners will not be able to fill the cockpit. There is no worries about filling their cockpits. They said so to congress.
The regionals and their major partners could fix this tomorrow, if they want to. They simply don't want to or feel the need to do so. All the majors would have to do is pay more for their feed and then the regionals could pay more. It isn't happening because B schools teach crisis management. Create a crisis and let the managers figure out how to cut costs.
12-02-2014, 01:55 PM
#54
MK Ultra Candidate
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: Prime Leader of Boko Harumph
Posts: 1,167
Certainly staffing is an issue. But they aren't pulling out of a few EAS markets and divesting an entire fleet of 40 aircraft in < 6 months just because of staffing. If that was the case they wouldn't be replacing most of the Brasilia routes with CRJs, it would just be gone for good. Thats why nearly all of the airport managers that have Bro service are scrambling for more $ to retain flight service. Its a cost thing, not exclusively staffing. Hiring is tuff, but classes are still filling, and no incentives have been offered yet. I agree though, every month that goes by attrition will continue to rise and hiring will become ever more difficult. It could have very well made the decision to shutdown the Brasilia ops that much more inevitable.
The big wave of Major retirements is just about to crest, but lets not forget its not solely 21k Regional pilots for the picking. Thousands of higher preferred military guys are going to join the exodus, as well as some at LCC, corporate, foreign, etc. Opportunities will abound for the current 10k regional guys with competitive qualifications, PIC experience being the most valuable.
The big wave of Major retirements is just about to crest, but lets not forget its not solely 21k Regional pilots for the picking. Thousands of higher preferred military guys are going to join the exodus, as well as some at LCC, corporate, foreign, etc. Opportunities will abound for the current 10k regional guys with competitive qualifications, PIC experience being the most valuable.
12-02-2014, 01:57 PM
#55
MK Ultra Candidate
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: Prime Leader of Boko Harumph
Posts: 1,167
Price is immaterial, RJs fill the last seats on a widebody, at least that what DAL said in the early millenum. RJs were never about profit as stand alone planes, they were a part of a bigger picture.
12-02-2014, 02:05 PM
#56
MK Ultra Candidate
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: Prime Leader of Boko Harumph
Posts: 1,167
The industry is run, for the most part by guys who spent most of their college years passed out in the bushes 3-4 nights a week. Jonny, and Dougie and more than a few other proud riders of the shortbus are the leaders. What the lack in intelligence they, make up the shortcomings by displaying an astounding lack of moral character, and a viciousness that exceeds a pack of hyenas at the buffet(water buffalo).
12-02-2014, 03:47 PM
#58
New Hire
Joined APC: Dec 2014
Position: B747 FO
Posts: 3
The industry is run, for the most part by guys who spent most of their college years passed out in the bushes 3-4 nights a week. Jonny, and Dougie and more than a few other proud riders of the shortbus are the leaders. What the lack in intelligence they, make up the shortcomings by displaying an astounding lack of moral character, and a viciousness that exceeds a pack of hyenas at the buffet(water buffalo).
12-02-2014, 03:59 PM
#59
MK Ultra Candidate
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: Prime Leader of Boko Harumph
Posts: 1,167
I have said repeatedly, if you aren't ready to knife fight in a phone booth, prepare to need band aids and Bactine. I have worked in more than a few hardcore industries(construction, not porn), and this one makes all the others look like Mother Teresa's soup kitchen. The youngins, who come into this industry, starry eyed and innocent, are just being led to the slaughter house. Welcome to Jonny O's and Hula'ses house of charnel. Glad my future has been secured, this is gonna get ugly(er).
12-02-2014, 07:49 PM
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Position: Supreme Allied Commander
Posts: 1,074
What 40 ERJs are coming to LAX? Or are you referring to the UAL Ejets we've known about for 1.5 years? Yeah I'm not using rumors from the FSI break room, I do have blood and friends in HDQ, including the MX department. I knew the date of the Bros going away since September when everyone else was speculating if it was going to happen or not, and if so it would be a "slow wind down". If everyone I know at HDQ has been decoyed into believing its mainly MX issues, and it is truly all about staffing, then something additional is on the horizon. I know the AA E175s are being bid on. But on the same token, so is most of what is currently being flown.
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