"Thanks for taking concessions!"
08-23-2014, 09:35 AM
#71
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,606
For anyone interested, I came across a surprisingly coherent, rational, and friendly thread (at least the first half) regarding the alleged pilot shortage: http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...tage-well.html
Of particular interest was this study on the shortage, one of the most comprehensive I've seen. It paints a fact-based picture that if you want to get to a major, you should statistically be able to. For your consideration:
http://www.northshore.edu/cms/file/a...bor-supply.pdf
Of particular interest was this study on the shortage, one of the most comprehensive I've seen. It paints a fact-based picture that if you want to get to a major, you should statistically be able to. For your consideration:
http://www.northshore.edu/cms/file/a...bor-supply.pdf
08-23-2014, 10:00 AM
#72
Living the Dream
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,795
Cheers! I didn't even notice the username that posted it. That was a great find on your part. I agree with you that it seems overly optimistic, but it's difficult to argue with numbers (although I admit having trouble following some of their technical mathematical models).
For anyone that doesn't want to go through the whole thing, here's a summary. Keep in mind, this is expected shortage, not just expected hiring:
For anyone that doesn't want to go through the whole thing, here's a summary. Keep in mind, this is expected shortage, not just expected hiring:
08-23-2014, 10:27 AM
#73
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2011
Posts: 136
Written by UND students......Not sure how 'nice' I can put this but it even if I agreed with their findings, it's suspect. Might as well have a link to their flight dept and tuition costs on it. Cubdriver often posts a chart showing all the commercial/atps and Dept of Labor stats that basically show the opposite of this paper. Those numbers I don't agree with EITHER.
I'm sure like most issues the truth of the matter is somewhere in-between.
I'm sure like most issues the truth of the matter is somewhere in-between.
08-23-2014, 10:35 AM
#75
Living the Dream
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,795
Written by UND students......Not sure how 'nice' I can put this but it even if I agreed with their findings, it's suspect. Might as well have a link to their flight dept and tuition costs on it. Cubdriver often posts a chart showing all the commercial/atps and Dept of Labor stats that basically show the opposite of this paper. Those numbers I don't agree with EITHER.
I'm sure like most issues the truth of the matter is somewhere in-between.
I'm sure like most issues the truth of the matter is somewhere in-between.
08-23-2014, 11:16 AM
#76
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 869
A big possibility that could throw a huge wrench in to the system is IF emirates,qatar...etc. start hiring regional CA/FO's from the US without the 777..etc. type ratings, things could get ugly for the majors and regionals very quickly
08-23-2014, 11:35 AM
#78
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,197
Foreign carriers have NO problem recruiting pilots and US expats are a minority of EK pilots, on the order of 10%. There are something like 50 nationalities in the EK, CX, QR, and EY cockpits.
GF
GF
08-23-2014, 11:39 AM
#79
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,648
It's intriguing to consider that we could almost singlehandedly cripple the regional industry simply by not working for carriers with substandard contracts.
08-23-2014, 11:46 AM
#80
Living the Dream
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,795
Interesting. What are the other major Emirates demographics? I just know that, having worked with Saudi Airlines, they'd be pretty SOL if America stopped training. Many of these countries have little to no civil airspace, few pilots, and even fewer experienced aviators to train new pilots. Emirates has enough money to keep attracting globally, but what about if and when the shortage hits full force? What about Etihad and Qatar? JAL and ANA? The multitude of Chinese airlines?
I guess I'm just not too worried about cabotage.
I guess I'm just not too worried about cabotage.
