FlyingKat

Not saying I disagree with you, but if the projections of a shortage at the regionals prove true, what mainline pilots think will be irrelevant in light of the business need to get pilots in the cockpits of regional aircraft. Mainline HR departments will continue to hire outside of these flow throughs. Military pilots are going to be so few (as compared to the past) their affects on flow throughs will be negligible.

If hiring projections prove true, you will likely see the regionals cannibalize each other for pilots. They will do this by offering hiring bonuses and guarantees of upward movement to mainline. You will also see longevity bonuses and flows in an effort to keep pilots where they are.

In short, if the shortage proves true, mainline and regional carriers will partner together to ensure their regional cockpits are filled, and will offer those incentives necessary to fill them. The more acute the shortage, the greater the guarantee of a flow through. Mainline carriers would prefer no flow through or agreements at all and will offer incentives in proportion to their need to fill regional cockpits and ensure feed to hubs.

Captain Tony

There Will Be No Pilot Shortage At The Majors!

(The regionals are hosed).

Bzzt

100 whole pilots? Hot dog!

FlyingKat

Heard from someone in the know that Go Jet and Trans States were negotiating an agreement for pilots to go to United as far back as last February. We'll see if it happens and what the terms are.

Bzzt

The majors could solve both their feed shortage and retirement replacements in one move. Start ab initio training like some foreign carriers do. Once the ab initio program is in place the only hiring comes from their 0 to hero pilots and everyone still in the regionals is stuck there for the duration of their careers. Not only does it stop the bleeding at the regional level but it ensures the regional feed for the next 30 years.

I should be a CEO somewhere.

FlyingKat

Already in progress. Using the regionals to recruit people out of flight schools, send them off to build 1000 hrs through instruction, then on to a Regional to build jet time.

Traditional European style ab initio will not work here due to new ATP rules.

Bzzt

The same ATP applies here whether you work at a mainline or a regional if I'm not mistaken.

eaglefly

It's pretty rare to find a pilot at AA who advocates their kids getting into the airline pilot profession. Of the few I've heard about, most say regionals are the pathway and a few even have kids who fly for Eagle. A small minority are against the "guaranteed job" philosophy believing the new-hire vetting process should prevail. Thats debateable. Your blanket statement doesn't jibe with what I've experienced at AA, but perhaps it's a good stress reliever to throw your strained beets across the kitchen every now and then.

Bzzt

I can totally see where most people don't want their children getting into aviation, if I had any I wouldn't allow it thats for sure. I still think the cronyism is a big reason why flow deals don't work though. At this point I would gladly give up this whole Eagle flow for a few extra dollars on my paycheck. The flow actually negatively impacts pilots at Eagle, it's very difficult for anyone to get in the front door at AA from Eagle (if thats what they want).

The best thing that could have happened to us is if we had been divested prior to the bankruptcy, if we were no longer under the umbrella of AMR they wouldn't care at all about our training costs and we'd have 3 potential majors to apply to. As it is now we have a joke flow through and two mainlines with a realistic shot at employment.

johnso29

That's 1/4 of their list. More will flow up this fall. I see sarcasm is how you cope with being incorrect.