eaglefly

I see the numbers, but I see something different than you do. Perhaps I'm reading your data wrong, but it seems to show approximately 8,000 less Commercial pilots last year compared to 5 years previous. ATP's are down by about 1,200, so could you clarify your assertions on that ? In the case of Eagle, perhaps you could also explain why they represented the need for 600 pilots this year and are at 80 or so at almost the halfway mark ?

Accident ?

April Fools day joke ?

They're even talking about parking airplanes instead of metering senior pilot flow to AA. That doesn't sound to me like either good business strategy, planned action or something under control. That's just ONE example BTW. Now many pilots get the Commercial ticket who have no intention of ever flying professionally, let alone for regionals and the same could be said for ATP's although to a lessor degree, especially regionals, so at any rate, correlating this data to prove there's no current or impending shortage is inaccurate in my book. The better litmus is what airlines are asking for vs. what they are getting and if Eagle is any indication, my assertions are something I stand behind.

Aviatrx

These stats are for active comm/ atp right? Not new comm/ atp's. These numbers show large decline in active and will get worse as retirements really ramp up in 2015, ft/dt regs., etc......Looks like shortage now and in the future. It is just not full tilt yet.

Cubdriver

Which is not reading the longer term trend. It is holding steady over the twenty year period. In the particular period you singled out, 2007-2012, there was just a 7% drop. Back it off to 2006 and there was actually was a modest increase. Here, I made this chart of the GAMA data to assist in it interpretation. Some people prefer graphs.



Sure, look at the chart above. The blue blocks have steadily increased since 1991.

I suspect they were hyping the public PR to counteract their own terrible reputation for being picky. American Eagle has for years had a reputation for being very picky. One checkride failed ever? No interview- that sort of thing. They know this is the case, and they had to do something about it. What better than to say "hey folks we are opening the flood gate" then do exactly the same thing they always do, which is to skim the cream of the crop and leave the rest alone. I am not condemning this really, it is just business as usual, but it explains what is going on. Evidence to the point is they still did not hire but around 90 new faces in 6 months. If you are thinking they only hired those 90 because all the others had skeletons in the closet, come on, nobody believes that. They would have known about them before inviting them for the interview. AirlineApps requires full disclosure.

What

You are still missing the point, with the decrease of Commercial US pilots there has been an increase of Commercial non US pilots. Also since the 90's there has been an increase in air travel, the mainlines have shrunk but the regional have grown. And you are still missing the main point about not how many pilots are active today but how many will be active come the next 5-10 years and how many in the pipeline to replace them.

Just because airline apps requires full disclosure doesn't mean people do it and that's why it is identified in the interview. American Eagle does send people home sometime for what it seems a minor issue but talking to many guys on the line and my personal experience there seem always be those guys who tend to burry stuff that comes up during interview or background check.

Bozo the pilot

I really appreciate the number crunching Cub, but the fact of the matter is that at least 4 regionals now are finding qualified candidates very hard to come by. You still cant explain the incentive plans or why the hr depts of rah/eagle/wisco/commuteair keep calling my friends and I. Why are they paying referral/signing bonuses? Have they gotten generous all of a sudden? I know you ll have a complex explanation to this and I look forward to the spin...so lets have it ....

eaglefly

What happened 10-20 years ago isn't relevant anyway. The 4-5 year range is what encompasses the typical high school senior commuting to an aviation flying career or an equivalent age making the same commitment through non-college programs. If Eagle is parking perfectly good planes, it isn't PR B.S., its a REAL problem.

Cubdriver

I'll give it to you that things do not seem perfectly right in the regional world in terms of staffing. There may indeed be staffing problems in many places, all taking individual forms. I never said there was no staffing issue, in fact I think there is. I hear about issues at several airlines in fact- Great Lakes, Expressjet, Eagle for example. My point all along was there is no pilot shortage, the required pilots are there to be had, and most or all regionals having problems with staffing are simply not going out and grabbing them. The individual reasons are a bit hard to gather into a single-size-fits-all summary. I suspect it varies by HR department, and HR departments are failing to realize they need to stop being so picky. If that is what you are saying, then I agree. But actual pilot shortage- no way. Nothing supports that conclusion. There are too many pilots on the market per the chart I posted. There is an oversupply if anything, which is why the wages remain forever low. The hiring mechanisms may need some improvement but the pilot supply is there if they will go get them.

embraer

Cubdriver it is obvious you have never flight instructed at any large flight school/flight academy within the last 6 years.

Otherwise you would know, as Mojo said earlier that the majority of commercial certificates these days are obtained by foreign students who return to their home country.

Actual American/Residents who pursue a Commercial are in the minority these days. In some areas non-existent. Those stats that you keep putting up doesn't reflect any of this.

Bozo the pilot

Are you looking for a reason why yur not getting hired? Other than that why not listen to guys who are currently working for these airlines? Good luck man and instead of crunching numbers to fit into yur theory, get prepared for interviews my friend. The regionals are desperate and you will get picked up. Good luck- Im done with this thread.

stbloc

The data doesn't show that a large portion of new certificates are to students from overseas. Most flights schools have very few americans training. Can someone pull data showing usa citizens certificate numbers? Very few americans have the money or financing to learn to fly today.