Bozo the pilot

Also whats the new certificate issuance totals- comm/ATP. Usually a good judge of pilot supply. I far too lazy to dig up those numbers though.

Cubdriver

I never argued about what is going to happen, I only argued there is presently no pilot shortage going on. I have no solid idea what is going to happen. As far as what is happening now, according to USBLS, there are 103,500 airline pilots working in the US in 2010. It might be 120,000 this year based on average growth rates they provide. Now if the pool of active FAA certificated pilots is 116,400 Comms + 145,600 ATPs = 312,000 total, it is safe to assume lots of pilots are available to supply the 120,000 jobs that are potentially available in the US. Even if the entire Comm group is left out due to the new ATP rule, they are oversupplied. No shortage.

Bozo the pilot

Age-health are also considerations cub. If there isnt a shortage, or lack of willing applicants, why are most regionals offering incentive programs?

What

Some of your post are not accurate. One thing to consider is that regional airline used to be commuters, flying small T-props feeding the hubs, then cam the 50 seat RJ. Mainline pilots didn't want to fly such a small airplane and later were forced allow many more airframes to the regionals due to BK. Most mainlines used to have regionals who flew for them exclusively and many were wholly owned. Fast foreword to the 2000 and you see mainlines rid themselves of the wholly owned and create a whipsaw effect. If you look at wages for first officers they haven't changed much in the last 20 or so years in effect FO are payed less today than they did in the 90's at the regionals. Most captains you will fly with today were hired with thousands of hours and the regionals used to be very competitive, now there is such a small supply of pilots that the regionals hire with the minimum hours required.

About the amount of commercial pilots available, your statistics don't show hoe many commercial certificates were issues to foreign students and I am willing to be that close to 50% of the commercial certificates issued in the US go to people who will fly for a foreign carrier. But lets say that all of these commercial pilots are US pilots and that the number of commercial pilots in the US has remained steady as your graph attempts to say. The problem is not so much the number of Pilots who are licensed today vs the number of airframes being flown. The problem is the amount of commercial pilots licensed between 2016-2022. There will be a huge amount of pilots retiring during this time period and that is what will create a high demand for pilots.

The regionals will shrink over the next few years. SKW, RAH, Eagle, EXJ and other will shrink due to SCOPE and the fact that the pilots are not there to staff such airlines with the retirements at the majors as well as the retirement at the regionals. Just this year Eagle will retire over 15 captains for age 65, doesn't sound like much but that number increases over the next few years. The "pilot shortage" is not just one simple factor there are many factors leading to this increase demand for pilots. The regionals will manage to stay afloat over the next few years as they park airplanes. SKW and EXJ alone operates 80% of the United and Delta total number of RJs allowed under SCOPE come Jan 1st 2016. That means that the remaining 200 airframes are being operated by RAH, Pinnacle, Compass, GoJet, and TranStates. Someone will shrink, likely most and with SKW now being able to operate CRJ and Ejets, TSH being able to operate CRJ and Ejets and RAH being able to operate Ejets and I believe they have a CRJ program many of the airplanes will shift operators for years to come.

Cubdriver

Supports the thesis that a shortage exists? How? The numbers are more or less holding steady by my previous Comm & ATP exhibit. A minor decline is splitting hairs. In addition, the ratio of eligible pilots to the number of possible jobs they can take (see above post) spells a large oversupply.

Cubdriver

Bozo, per your post #1041, I admit that without knowing more details about the 320,000 eligible active pilots in the US, it is hard to know how many are available and also desire to work in the US. That's a weakness in using those numbers. It's worth researching.

V1 ROT8

Did you read all of my post that you quoted? If a qualified pilot wants a job right now and they lack skeletons in their closet, they would have one. As others have said, why would regionals be offering numerous incentives to attract new hires? Why are major universities closing their aviation departments? What happens when tens of thousands of ATPs start retiring over a span of about a decade? Do you really think your HR and recruiting contacts are going to tell you that they aren't able to do their jobs? Do you really believe they aren't influenced by another agenda or have one themselves?

Cubdriver

Retractable incentives are not evidence of a very large problem with supply. A minor one maybe, and from what I hear Eagle is sending most people home even with the incentives and talk of 600 this year. You suggest they may not be qualified and have skeletons, not sure what counts as a skeleton but that sort of thing is always known before any interview is granted anyway, and therefore is unlikely to be a factor. At least not a strong one.

For the fifth time, I am not arguing there will never be a pilot shortage. There may be a massive one 6.5 months from now. I am only saying there is not one now.

My opinion and assertion there is no pilot shortage is not based on what anyone is telling me, with the exception of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics who says there is not one. It is based on my own experiences and those of my colleagues interviewing at the same places. We go to an interview then we get sent home. Every time. Next month change firms, do it again. It paints a strong and clear pattern after about 6 or so. I have no skeletons, nor do my pals have any. How many regional airline interviews have you attended in the last twelve months? What did you see there? If you saw something much different let me know where you went because I need to apply there. No shortage- an oversupply of pilots is what I see everywhere I go. Wages and hiring numbers amply reflect this fact.

What

Many people show up to interviews without disclosing information such as busted check rides, criminal records and other with the hope that once they are they will be granted a chance to explain. Some airlines have a zero tolerance for this and Eagle is one of them, other will let you explain it and let you by. When I interviewed three years ago, two of the guys sent home was due to busted ride not disclosed and the other had an arrest that he didn't disclose.

V1 ROT8

Really? So it wasn't you that said this:

So which is it?

So what you are saying is that offering pilot pipeline programs from flight schools, $5,000 bonuses, tuition reimbursement, promises of interviews at majors, bonuses to current employees for referring an employee who gets hired, is all just a gimmick? If you can't see that they are experiencing
a shortage of qualified applicants from these facts I don't know who or what is going to convince you. And yes, when they are experiencing a shortage of applicants, you may be offered an interview with skeletons in your closet. It's how you explain those skeletons and your attitude towards them that will make or break a job offer. It is a strong factor, whether you like it or not.

I will admit that I have not interviewed in the past 12 months. I was hired about 2.5 years ago, and 6 of the 8 in my interview class were offered jobs. The two that were not hired; let's just say I would cringe if I saw their names on a crew list for a 4 day trip. I was the lowest time applicant in my group, just barely with ATP minimums. Within two months the minimums at my airline had dropped to 500 total time and 50 multi, and people were being hired right at the minimum. Why were the minimums lowered? Because they had a shortage of qualified applicants. Guess what? They only kicked the can down the road a couple of years because now the ATP rule will hopefully prevent them from dropping minimum qualifications that low again. My ties at my former flight school say that while they are surviving, enrollment is definitely on the decline, and other schools are worse off than they are. Flight schools are CLOSING because they HAVE NO BUSINESS! So what does that mean? Another shortage of qualified candidates and therefore they have resorted to the aforementioned incentives to try and fill classes. And it still isn't working! But, if you'd like to keep believing that the regionals are just "skimming the cream of the crop" off of the applicant pool right now, go right ahead. Clearly there is no convincing you.