The Chow

This would all be fine if AA were actually going to start hiring and take the 824 sometime before they hit 65.

love2av8

Yup it sounds like a NO brainer for sure! Why are we accepting anything prior to the company filing an 1113? We don't even know if they would file the same term sheet.
They have been negotiating with the union regarding the values assigned to each item on the term sheet and both sides have come to an agreement on those values. For example, the cost savings associated with PBS. It now has a much higher negotiated value than what was put on the original the sheet. The company would be foolish to file that term sheet after adjusting and AGREEING to the new values with the union.
Just say NO and make them file and play their hand.

eaglefly

My sources say less then that. The variable is how much Eagle might be part of any future AA/U consolidation. The combined carrier will have 10 regionals and perhaps 600 aircraft and how that all shakes out is still fluid. Eagle will almost certainly be a player, but could very well be 150-200 aircraft, but that will take time.

lakehouse

if it can hold out 5 more years, it wont matter because a huge shake out of movement will happen. If people want to admit it or not, the hard numbers have been posted on here, you have upwards of 40,000 retirements coming over the next two decades, with a good chunk of that in the next 5-8 years. I dont think there are even 40,000 pilots at the rj level. Weed out the idiots, weirdos, drunks, wife hitters, felons, crooks, and check ride flunky frequenters and your pool drys up more. This isnt any new knowledge.

The question on the airplane numbers is, AA is looking at up to 375 regional jets, Eagle has 250, your all thinking they can shrink 50 more planes and bid out 175, all in the next 3 years. This would be a stand alone picture, but IDK, its a rough market. I still think they want to spin this company off, and let it go to town on the free market of regionals. Its claimed to be the most profitable regional, and that's factoring in an industry average fee for departure rate.

EF how do you come up with 10 airlines, since there are only about 4 holding companies left that can bid for AA/USair flying. Transtates holding (TSA/Compass/blowjets), Skywest Holdings (skywest/asa/expressjet), and Rah (republic/shuttle/chq). PNCL is out of the game and is basically a unit of delta, and air willy is out of the came and is basically a unit of us air. Mesa is the only other player. You have some turbo prop units, but that is all I can think of. They can come up with all the funny names they want, some of which are thanks to AA to begin with, actually most are, ie at TSA and RAH. You got 4 players left anymore, RAH, Skyw, and Mesa, thats it. If the majors start hiring you got 3 companies that cant staff their flying.

What

US Air Express:

1) Mesa
2) Piedmont
3) Republic
4) Sky West
5) Air Wisconsin
5) Tran States
6) PSA
7) Colgan (not any more)
8) Eagle (?)

His number was a little hight but the premise still stand, US Airways has the most regionals doing the feed for them.

SmitteyB

9) Chautauqua

-------------------

Delta isn't far behind.

Pinnacle
Skywest
ExpressJet
GoJet
Compass
Shuttle America
Chautauqua
Silver

eaglefly

As what pointed out (a wierd sentance........), my number was a bit high as I was estimating the number of current combined U and AA feeders. My point was regarding the combining of AA/U, not stand alone AA. In that case, that will leave too many feeders and consolidation and elimination will occur as part of streamling feeders. I expect Eagle to still be a player, but smaller then present. Unfortunately, the economic pressures on regionals will continue if not increase due to the 3 legacies adopting or strengthening their whipsaw models of several feeders under staggared contracts that must periodically rebid for their flying and the future AA will be more aggressive then the others if history is any lesson. This reality will only put less leverage in the pockets of regional pilots and thus the compensation packages including minimal staffing and poor scheduling will intensify. If AA stands alone (the least likely result of this BK fiasco), then Eagle will indeed see at least one and likely 2 others come in for part of that flying. The premise Eagle can muscle others aside for future contracts flying for DAL or UAL is uncertain, but IMO carriers already entrenched at those networks are more likely to remain provided they captitulate to the economic demands of their daddy legacies and that doesn't bode well for Eagle future industry prostitution efforts.

The future AA (merged with U) will likely allow for 75% of its domestic narrow-body fleet ops to be provided by Catagory A and B operators and that is likely to be approximatley 650 or so aircraft, which is about what is currently being operated across the board for both carriers. The major change will be the proportionate increase (35% of scope) in larger RJ's up to the E-175/CRJ-900 size which would be perhaps 300 aircraft and another 350 smaller RJ's and some turboprops (45% of scope), most of which would be E-170, CRJ-700 or Q400 types. Eagle will play a part, but a smaller part then present. 200 aircraft for Eagle would be almost 1/3 of the total ops and that would likely mean 3 regionals, if all of similar size, but my guess is 4-5 regionals (one of which may be all turboprop), so 150-175 aircraft for the former Eagle is not an unreasonable assumption. Of course, this would require a period of transition and during that period the combined mainline operation which includes operating catagory C aircraft like the E-190 and CRJ-1000 will be mostly a replacement scenario UNLESS aircraft deliveries for AA slated as replacement aircraft over the next 5 years or so (2018) are switched to expansion which would mean most of the S80's will be pressed for another 5 years or more. Under that possibility, the "expansion" aircraft due AA post 2018 would then become replacement. This MAY be the "sneaky" part of the future plan for AA/U, i.e., the reversal of "replacement" and "expansion" aircraft to allow rapid expansion on top of theat provided by the merger of the new combined carrier to overtake the others rapidly AFTER the merger is consummated and if that occurs then your assumptions of significant (but not huge) "shakeout of movement" would indeed likely occur, but I digress.......

Should the above possibility not occur, then expect no real increase in mainline size and likely even contraction as the larger RJ's take more of the mainline pie and thus considering that retirements at most of the mainline carriers between now and 2018 are NOT that high (they increase dramatically after about 2020) and the increased pressure for many to fly until they drop or age 67/70 arrives, which ever is sooner will likely mean another period of stagnation and in the AA case, transition for the pilots who fly for its feeders. Yes, a large number of U east pilots would be gone within 5-7 years, but how much of that is taken over by catagory A and B feeder ops and the overall size of the future AA is a question mark. As far as the future of Eagle and its pilots pie is, think of it as shuffling of the deck chairs with perhaps 65-70% of the chairs needed. Thus the 1000 or more Eagle pilots "furloughed", might actually be simply trnasitioned to another carrier picking up that feed with new deliveries replacing Eagle's E-135/140/145's. In fact, Parker has already mentioned that specifically as a consideration. If you get whacked rick, it may mean you spend little or no time on furlough, but may start as a new hire at another AA feeder.......unless of course, greener pastures beckon. The majority of the "transition" for Eagle will occur BEFORE that "5-8 year good chucnk of retirements" which actually aren't really that good until AFTER that 5-8 year window. 67 or 70 will throw another 2-5 years of delay there as another possibility.

Still several paths available, but with the fresh NDA between AA and U, it seems more clear these two are eventually going to be canoodling. Since they both are now going to be privy to each others buysiness plans going forward, if they do not consummate their courtship it's going to leave both in an akward position going forward from a competitive standpoint, no ?

To me it seems obvious AA and U are destined for marraige (hopefully for the pilots, not a stormy one), it's just a matter of timing. In 5 years as a 4th year F/O flying an E-175, you then might have the opportunity to jump to AA mainline and fly the E-190 for $40/hour and that's when the big bucks start rolling in (Louie Anderson in "Coming to America").

lakehouse

See the above in bold, 6 holding companies would be involved.

lakehouse

Its only 4 companies, the RAH units are one seniority list, so you can make as many names as you want, its one company. Skywest and EXJT are 2 lists for now, but still one company. Pinnacle is a hair from being a wholy owned in principle.

lakehouse

If they do not marry up, I think it leaves USAIR in a much worst position than AA. Usair has no wide bodies in the big picture, I think less than 15? AA has near that many 767-200s. USAIR NEEDS AA, I am not sure AA needs Usair. I am no Harvard grad, with a JD in business, but it seems to me AA could raise the capital for a Jetblue or Frontier, to provide them with a growth spurt via competition elimination, as well as ripe them up for the Airbus's. Buying USAIR is not much different than buying Southwest in all reality.

I think Alaska is the PERFECT match for AA, and I would not be surprised if AMR follows the United model, and gets out of BK and then guts the place to become ripe for the RIGHT buy out (Alaska). This is not exactly like CAL taking over UAL but it is similar (minus the large airplane order by AA). Alaska has a low debt ratio, and could easily raise the capital if AA was a proper suitor. I guess time will tell. I also think Jetblue is not a bad unit to the mix. I think Jetblue is a much better option than Frontier, however anyone with Airbus's seems to be needed going forward.

Just my opinion but I think the USAIR deal sucks for AA. Another TWA, in many ways. I just think better options are out there. USair is 90% a North America airline, with airplanes that are fairly dated (older 737s, and the PDT Dashs). The hubs are not that great, even CLT is a market losing its appeal. Not to mention the possible labor disaster. Once the dust settles and its time to complete the marriage, I think people will be realizing the mess they got in to, and wanting an annulment, like waking up married to a stripper after a drunk night in vegas.