TonyWilliams

Amen brother. I predict Pay-2-Play MPL within 10 years.

TonyWilliams

No, there won't be wide spread cabotage, because there is already a shortage of qualified pilots in the rest of the world (and that's WITH the MPL license in Euro-land).

There's no shortage of applicants at regionals now. There won't be in the future. They'll bump the pay a bit, maybe.

Let's face it, if the pay at a typical regional went from $22-$25 / hour for first year to $30 / hr, there would be guys selling their mother's burial plot to get in on that action.

And it's still poor pay.

Sniper

Am I the only one who noticed the graph?


Look @ the drop in PPL's. There may not be a professional pilot shortage (or at least pilots willing to work for pennies to fly a jet), but there is certainly a pilot shortage coming.

Take a look @ 2010 - 50% of licenses are Commercial, 20% are ATP's! It increasingly looks like 1 out of every 2 pilots who is starting up is thinking they are going to fly professionally. We, as current professionals, are doing a disservice to these guys, or allowing these pilot mills to fill their heads with fantasies - these guys are in for a world of hurt if an ATP (or even more than a wet CMEL) is ever required to fly professional.

What are we doing about it? Nothing. When's the last time you were @ the local FBO? If you were, were you telling people what a poor choice it is these days, or bragging about how great it is to fly a jet? We have only ourselves (and our egos) to blame.

Who woulda' thunk it - a shortage of pilots, yet an oversupply of pilots wanting to fly professionally.

The Chow

Sniper,

I think there is more to the graph then simply fewer licenses being issued. The United States has been in a recession since 2008. And even though the experts tell me we're out of it you would be hard press to find people who's QOL has improved in the last three years. The same experts keep telling me the isn't any inflation yet the same money buys less this week than last week.

My point is no one has the money right now to go flying. FBO's are a lot quieter now than they used to be. And avgas is through the roof.

So maybe if this country turns a corner for the better people might get hooked.

My $.02

dh05z28

See my above post. Point people here to get the other side of the story (the real one) dontbeapilot.tumblr.com

SKMD4ever

I see this "they get what they deserve" mentality a lot lately, and I just wonder what you would propose pilots do to start their commercial careers? Right now there are very few real viable options out there to obtain the required experience to be hired by a major airline. Unless you can afford your own jet or have some serious connections at a corporate, you're going into the regionals to obtain experience. Sure, you can pay for a type rating, but what good is it if your logbook has zero experience in said type? Yes, there are many 135 companies out there, and good luck getting hired at a major with 3000 hrs PIC Caravan or Baron single-pilot time.

Everyone knows starting pay is horrendous and QOL can be worse, but you have to start somewhere and you have to know what you are getting into. How many doctors do you know whose first professional job was an 8-5 on weekdays only, making 100k? No, they were at the hospital all days of the week working 16+ hr shifts making 30k, but knowing that they were building towards something better. And just like doctors, most pilots got into their profession because they love what they do, not because it would make them rich. Sacrifice has to come before success.

Do I agree with the current state of the industry? No! Should some companies be put out of business for their shady practices? Yes! Does pay need to go up so that we make more than the garbage man? Absolutely! Does that mean that everyone should stop applying to the regionals until it does? Not necessarily.

TheDashRocks

If a union pilot group organized a mass resignation with about one week warning to the employer, would this be considered a job action under the RLA? Pay and work rules would improve more quickly if pilot unions were not hamstrung by the RLA and could more quickly arrange a work stoppage.

galaxy flyer

Yes, court cases have found that to be an illegal job action. Proving it was an organized union effort to create a job action is another deal. Of course, the company could just take all the resignations and rehire at probationary pay.

The RLA was written to PREVENT strikes in critical transportation industries, specifically the railroads.

GF

jayray2

I agree, at first it looks like that. However I bring this up every time this topic comes up, many of those are not Americans, maybe even the majority of them are not. Go around the country and look at some of the big flight schools, almost all of their students are Indians, Chinese or handful of other nationalities. I'm not saying there is going to be a huge shortage, I have no idea but if jet fuel comes down in price and if the world economy ever improves I think there will at one point be a pinch for pilots. How that plays out or how that will effect you and me, who knows, hopefully we can take advantage of the opportunity if it presents itself.

Bellanca

You're probably right to some extent, I'm not sure there is majority of foreign pilots, but definitely a significant number (maybe 20-30%). It is probably a somewhat better than the graph shows, but there isn't a huge shortage of pilots out there atm. The economy will probably improve, but I think the days of low fuel prices have long since passed. The best thing that could happen for pilot demand would be an increased demand in part 91 and 135 charter ops (they need 1-2 pilots just carry around a couple pax). My fear is that with increasing oil and fuel prices, more and more corporate jets will be dumped. If all of those King Air and Citation pilots were suddenly out on the streets looking for work it would totally kill any demand there is for pilots.

The other thing I'd like to point out about the graph is that it shows why it is so difficult for CFIs to make it these days. At least half of the pilots training in this country are going on to become commercial pilots themselves (and many picking up their CFI certs, too) and joining the ranks of commercial pilots and flight instructors looking for work. The private pilots that get their private and maybe instrument, and then come back for BFR's, aircraft checkouts, IPC's, etc, etc, are a dying breed.