NWA320pilot

Gloopy,

Good points but this also assumes at a minimum that the number of ASM stays constant or increases. What we have seen over the past years is a decrease in the ASM among the Major players...... Wall Street has a lot of pressure on airlines to hold the line or even decrease ASM to afford a higher yield. Time will tell but my bet is we will see hiring at the majors but not in the droves people talk about.

gloopy

I also do not think that we will see massive (or even any) ASM growth, and in fact just may continue to see nominal ASM reductions. But with every legacy airline about to start losing several hundred pilots (each) per year, with many years totaling several thousand, we will see significant upward mobility. The only things that can change that are a devistating depression, scope relief or a cabotage free for all. All of which are possible, but none of which are likely to happen to the extent necessary to quell the coming onslaught in retirements and to a much lesser extent F&DT and total time regs. Factor in the greatly reduced civilian flight school footprint and likely military reductions and IMO we will see upward mobility maybe not as grandiose as we saw in the late 90's but almost, and for a lot longer.

saab2000

I agree. The big wild cards are fuel prices and the (remote) possibility of changes to cabotage laws. I see changes to that as unlikely. Political suicide with hundreds of thousands of airline personnel who would lose their jobs and many of whom are voters.

nordo

Well said, ROTFLMAO.

tomgoodman

The only carrier to experience a pilot shortage was Munchkin Airlines. They solved it with booster seats.

boeingt7

What about all these part 141 flight schools that are receiving exemptions for this ATP requirement? This "requirement" will only kill off most of the mom and pop part 61 flight schools while massively increasing enrollment for all the pilot mills out there who operate with the exemption.

snippercr

As far as I know, there hasn't been any exemptions yet. Although, as far as I know, the 1500 rule isn't a "rule" yet, right? They have until Aug 2013 to make the actual rule an that will probably spell out everything and all the requirements.

atpcliff

Hi!

The ATP is the key! There will be NO exemptions for the requirement to have an ATP to fly -121. Will the FAA allow you to suddenly get an ATP with 500 hours in the future, when it's 1500 now? Does that make any sense?

Also, the ATP will have MORE requirements attached to it, not less, so in that sense, it will be harder to get.

Congress has made LAW that says the ATP is required, and the ATP requirement will be IN EFFECT before 1 Aug 2013. There is no grandfathering, and this 3 years period is the time given to the aviation organizations to adjust to the changes in the law/regulations.

Also, the new Rest/Duty/Flight rules will be in use prior to 1 Aug 2011, and will be a BIG change for Regionals and -121 supplemental organizations. For the majors, it won't be a big deal.

cliff
DXB

gloopy

Yeah they have talked tough about 1500 hours and "the ATP" being required, but they have also consistently mentioned hourly reduction exemptions being looked at. So yes, I believe they will allow fast track ATP's unfortunately. If they do this, how low will the hourly requiremen plummett to? That's anyone's guess but I think around 800-1000 otherwise the ATA gets no concessionary bang for their lobbying buck. They will lobby for 500 hours TT but I don't think they will get that.

Now will that kill all part 61 schools? No, I don't think so at all, especially if the "blessed" schools' exemption is only around 800 or higher. But in any case, if someone has already finished college or is close to doing so, it won't make any sense to pay what will be insanely steep and marked up prices just to shave off a few hundred hours.

There will still be the need for CFI's, banner towers, check haulers, lab sample runners, traffic watchers, forrest fire patrols, used plane deliveries and many other functions in the GA community. Most of today's airline pilots that came from the mom and pop part 61 environment probably still would go that route even if the larger collegiate programs had a 500-800 hour exemption/reduction because, again in most cases not all, it would be cost prohibitive to go back and do college all over again, or move to out of state, or pay a lot more to begin with, when hourly experience between commercial and the 1500 hour ATP are still obtainable and reasonable, and I believe that will still be the case.

DashGirl

What will likely become of the thousands of F/Os currently flying 121 that do not have an ATP? My bet is that the airlines will consolidate and bring to bare their substantial lobbying power and get an exception allowing pre-rule F/Os to continue working with no ATP. I feel this way because I believe the cost for airlines to upgrade all of their COM holding F/O's to an ATP would be substantial in its totality industry wide.

Has there been any official ruling made on this point? I can tell you that my airline was considering requiring F/Os to fund and acquire the ATP on their own but our union, thankfully managed to convince them otherwise. But I imagine some carriers will go that route right? Is there any legal means for F/Os that get screwed by this new rule to retaliate? Could there be the potential for a big i.e. ALPA vs. FAA/US Govt lawsuit or pilot groups suing their airline if they won't provide for an existing F/O to get his/her ATP here?