lakehouse

You could never ever sell me as a reason to work somewhere. I doubt at all Yonited would hire a CRJ700 captain of 3 years over a CRJ200 captain of 3 years with same overall backgrounds beyond that. You could never sell me on that.

FlyJSH

I'm not too sure what the requirements are at Yonited (United? Contenited? YouNited? You Knighted?)

But some airlines DO have MGW/MGTOW requirements.

lakehouse

your such a jokster....but regardless I dont see a different between a CRJ200/700/900 or the Es over at RAH, in the eyes of a major the multi jet time of 50+ people is going to be all the same IMHO.

gloopy

I don't think any US airline cares in the slightest about the MTOW difference between the Canadairs and Embraers. There may be a few foreign operators that establish a cutoff north of one but south of the other, but even that is the exception, not to mention most likely changes a lot anyway.

FlyJSH

So, you WOULD see a difference between an ERJ 145 and a 135, 140, or a Legacy 600? I'm pretty sure they are all the same type.

Actually, I don't see the difference either. But alas, neither you nor I are establishing the minimums or doing the hiring.

lakehouse

no but I have 24 years of my life being surrounded by airline pilots, and they all would say just get the multi turbine time. However they would also say they might see a slight advantage over a CRJ pilot and a B1900 pilot with the same times/backgrounds. But as they all seem to think now, by 2015-2018 everyone will just sort of be wondering into the majors, from either a crj or a b1900.

USMCFLYR

I see you changed your position under your avatar. Does this mean that you ended up taking the AE offer?

USMCFLYR

lakehouse

ya pending the review board and BG check. I am not counting all my eggs yet. I still have some other interviews while I wait.

NWA320pilot

Guys don't kid yourselves there are tons of unemployed pilots that have a lot more than just an ATP.

The so called pilot shortage has been talked about for the past 30 years and has never materialized! The regional airlines used to require a lot more experience than just an ATP and had no trouble filling positions...... What the new bill will require is for guys to actually go out and gain a minimum experience level before being allowed to operate an aircraft under FAR 121.

gloopy

True, but it depends on what the definition of definition is.

Fo reals though, there have been what you could call "pilot shortage equivalents" at all tiers of the airline hiring system. What we saw in the mid to late 90's was what I think we will come to see again, only this time it will last longer. Back then, was any pilot with a commercial (or even an ATP) able to waltz into any airline and demand a neurosurgeon salary and name his/her own class date? Were flights cancelling by the thousands every day because of empty seats on the flight deck? No, of course not, as the "shortage" wasn't that severe and never will be.

But we did see everyone especially the "majors", all at once, hire and fill large classes every month. The regionals did the same. Although there were some exceptions, for the most part pilot labor contracts improved and leapfroged one another at the major and even *gasp* the regional level too.*

While we eventually saw many regionals pretty much drop all mins, for the first couple years of the "shortage" [OK forget that term, let's call it a "favorable hiring environment", of FHE] a large majority of regional hiring required "12 and 2" and they still filled classes before dropping the mins. Majors were bursting at the seams with hiring as well even with their much higher "competitive mins." Although of course there were some majors that had ultra low mins far, far below those of most regionals, those were never mins for the general public and were for "special cases" as we all know.

Also during this time, the scourge of PFT (pay for training) was phased out almost to the point of being eliminated.

This pilot "FHE" had a little to do with retirements but mostly hyped up growth based on almost free fuel (compared to today) and a never ending stream of $2000 domestic walk up fares and the glory of the dot.com bubble as every CEO went bat dung crazy raiding every city pair in the country with a million RJ flights a day. Right as that was winding down of course, we had 9-11 on top of it. Even then though, regional and LCC hiring was off the charts (both based on what would later become unsustainable anomalies) which basically represented a shift from catestrophic major furlough numbers to unreal regional and LCC crisis hiring. But pilots were still needed.

And just barely 4 years later we saw almost crisis hiring at CAL (all for retirements of course) and also at the regionals as post 9-11 they were all pretty much limited in growth only by how fast RJ's could come off the assembly lines.

Only 2 years later, the rest of the majors started hiring again, all at the same time, but here came age 65 and an oil crisis and that progress was rolled back. But age 65 will now very soon be upon us and it will be fierce, as well as maybe FAR's that result in a very slight additional need for hiring (you're kidding yourself if you think it will be revolutionary anywhere other than the lowliest of pilot pushing stool bag operations out there) and just maybe a tiny additional bit of pressure from a higher min requirement.

LCC's are in the process of peaking and regionals are on the wane (unless more scope relief is granted) but mega consolidation coupled with mega retirements are setting the stage at the major/legacy level for long term sustained hiring. Airlines are profitable again and this time the core economics behind it are far more sustainable than the late 90's dot.com/RJ bubble. NDAL and UCAL are game changers, and the #3 LCC is gone (gone only as an additional fare trashing competitior, and with soon to be substantially higher costs). Others will likely follow. I expect JB to be merged with someome within the next couple years and VA and Spirit to either disappear or be gobbled up as well, and the long term fate of the "Indy Air Group" is perilous at best.

The regional bubble has popped, big time, and is never coming back (absent massive scope relief) but legacy retirements are here, they're severe and they're in our face. That will drive significant and sustained hiring at the legacy level for decades and that will create long term movement at the regional level as well, even if the sector itself is stagnant or shrinks. LCC's will hire as well, and there will always, always be "new entrants" because no matter what happens economically, rich people, who are normally good at managing money, still like to play with airplanes even when they lose money 99.99% of the time doing it.

So will there be a "pilot shortage" so severe that our pay doubles every few years as flights cancel by the thousands every day for lack of good looking aviators like us to take the helm? No, not even close. But ther will be a long term FHE that will be significant in number and will drive positive mobility throughout the industry.

*While the regional level will benefit from the mobility and the chance to move on, that IMHO won't do much if anything to create a long term positive environment for pay and benefits due to management's ability to perpetually shop future and even current flying to the lowest bidder and even start up new regionals where everyone not only makes less but is at YOS-1 to boot. Even the much ballyhooed DOT mins and F&DT debate will have a minimal long term impact because if one group gets out of line, they will be promptly replaced by a neverending supply of new and existing pilots willing to "deal management an ace" for jets.

Whatever bracket/amount of legacy flying that is allowed to be rampantly outsourced to the perpetually lowest bidder will never enjoy a stable and prosperous future as each pilot group will have to be among the cheapest to get the work, keep the work, and be employed inn the first place to move on, even if the overall industry hiring picture is rosy. That is one of the core reasons why scope must not be relieved more and why it must be tightened. Scope relief is a drag chute on the entire industry that pulls everyone down, in good times and in bad, during periods of mass furloughs or periods of mass hiring alike. Those who trade scope for pay end up with neither and that is why.

And of course, Kit Darby will say he saw this coming all along.