Projected Retirement in the next 18 months
09-02-2010, 06:18 AM
#41
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,016
Maybe so and I'm not advocating staying at a regional forever, however people forget Little airlines like... Eastern and Pan Am. How do you think that 10 year FO at Pan Am felt when they said.. oh by the way.. we're closing up shop you'll never get your upgrade.... Everything has it's risks. Majors can go out just as easily.
Now that we have three "super legacies", the loss of any single one would cause major economic disruption, especially during peak travel periods when there is zero excess capacity anywhere else in the system. The government would almost have to intervene. Even a modest sized major like US would cause enough disruption that Washington might save them just to avoid the bad press.
Regionals are mostly small enough that nobody will care if they go away, and they have the additional risk factors of competition, sudden contract termination, and getting stuck with obsolete airplanes.
A major with old (paid for) airplanes can limp along with them for quite a while. A regional which does not own a fleet of the "airframe of the month" can be rapidly kicked to the curb (see the comair thread for more details).
Also a less-than-competitive major can linger for decades, breaking even or losing modest sums...a regional in that same boat will only make it as far as the next contract renewal.
Odds of long-term stability are probably significantly better with a major (not including startups).
09-02-2010, 07:01 AM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Posts: 420
It can certainly happen, but it's nowhere near as likely today as in the early days of deregulation when things were still shaking out. It was assumed and understood that there would be post-deregulation casualties...
Now that we have three "super legacies", the loss of any single one would cause major economic disruption, especially during peak travel periods when there is zero excess capacity anywhere else in the system. The government would almost have to intervene. Even a modest sized major like US would cause enough disruption that Washington might save them just to avoid the bad press.
Regionals are mostly small enough that nobody will care if they go away, and they have the additional risk factors of competition, sudden contract termination, and getting stuck with obsolete airplanes.
A major with old (paid for) airplanes can limp along with them for quite a while. A regional which does not own a fleet of the "airframe of the month" can be rapidly kicked to the curb (see the comair thread for more details).
Also a less-than-competitive major can linger for decades, breaking even or losing modest sums...a regional in that same boat will only make it as far as the next contract renewal.
Odds of long-term stability are probably significantly better with a major (not including startups).
Now that we have three "super legacies", the loss of any single one would cause major economic disruption, especially during peak travel periods when there is zero excess capacity anywhere else in the system. The government would almost have to intervene. Even a modest sized major like US would cause enough disruption that Washington might save them just to avoid the bad press.
Regionals are mostly small enough that nobody will care if they go away, and they have the additional risk factors of competition, sudden contract termination, and getting stuck with obsolete airplanes.
A major with old (paid for) airplanes can limp along with them for quite a while. A regional which does not own a fleet of the "airframe of the month" can be rapidly kicked to the curb (see the comair thread for more details).
Also a less-than-competitive major can linger for decades, breaking even or losing modest sums...a regional in that same boat will only make it as far as the next contract renewal.
Odds of long-term stability are probably significantly better with a major (not including startups).
Rick may not agree with the following statement, but I personally believe that making an airline "career" at a regional is like playing russian roulette. It is only a matter of time.
Regionals DO NOT:
1) own their gates,
2) own their reservation systems,
3) own brand names with any meaning to anybody except industry insiders.
This is the world we live and work in. With a little luck and hard work providing a valuable service to our customers and our employers, most of us will get an interview opportunity to work for an airline with actual long term economic value.
There are no guarantees in life, but some bets are better to take than others.
09-02-2010, 07:15 AM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,951
I agree with Rickair7777.
Rick may not agree with the following statement, but I personally believe that making an airline "career" at a regional is like playing russian roulette. It is only a matter of time.
Regionals DO NOT:
1) own their gates,
2) own their reservation systems,
3) own brand names with any meaning to anybody except industry insiders.
This is the world we live and work in. With a little luck and hard work providing a valuable service to our customers and our employers, most of us will get an interview opportunity to work for an airline with actual long term economic value.
There are no guarantees in life, but some bets are better to take than others.
Rick may not agree with the following statement, but I personally believe that making an airline "career" at a regional is like playing russian roulette. It is only a matter of time.
Regionals DO NOT:
1) own their gates,
2) own their reservation systems,
3) own brand names with any meaning to anybody except industry insiders.
This is the world we live and work in. With a little luck and hard work providing a valuable service to our customers and our employers, most of us will get an interview opportunity to work for an airline with actual long term economic value.
There are no guarantees in life, but some bets are better to take than others.
1. OWNS the gates in ATL that we use. (Look it up, they were part of the purchase of ASA).
2. HAS a reservation system, though it isn't used anymore.
3. Is a widely recognized brand on the west coast and the inter mountain west.
Next question, please.
09-02-2010, 07:56 AM
#47
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
09-02-2010, 08:01 AM
#48
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,951
And your comment doesn't make it any less true that the one I was replying to had no idea what he was talking about, like most of the pilots on here.
09-02-2010, 08:14 AM
#49
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
If you want to add non-inflammatory remarks to a debate as to why you think more scope will be sold that's fine. But your comments are often the opposite, using phrases such as 'beating your chests'. I see it all the time in threads about scope, mergers, and anything else that has to do with ASA.
09-02-2010, 09:27 AM
#50
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,016
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